Depending on what city you're in, Indianapolis or Baltimore, you probably think your team is the better prepared for the wild card elimination game coming up on Sunday in Crabtown.
Josh Wilson from Stampede Blue says the Colts may be peaking at just the right time. "Against Houston last Sunday, the Colts offense was very good, the defense was very good, and the special teams was very good. It was the best overall performance of the year from a Colts team that hadn't exactly been overwhelmingly impressive recently. But against Houston, they played great as a team and enter the postseason on a high note. "
Baltimore Beat Down says the Ravens have a better chance to make a great defensive statement over the Colts, and feels they will have an offensive effort that is peaking itself:
"The Ravens have a strong game plan and all the right pieces of the puzzle returning to make a deep playoff run. They will have a big offensive test against the Colts who are led by a man who spent four years in Baltimore and knows this team like the back of his hand. Perhaps the best thing the Ravens did was fire Cam Cameron when they did. I'm sure Chuck Pagano would have known every play Cameron would have thrown at him."
Paul Kuharsky of ESPN gives credence to the momentum the Colts have going into this playoff match. He also likes Chuck Pagano's familiarity with the Ravens, not to mention the huge emotional lift the Colts are getting from Pagano's inspiring return from leukemia. But he also points out some of the Colts' flaws and disadvantages:
Turnovers: The Colts have been a bad team with turnovers all season, giving away 18 interceptions and nine fumbles while taking the ball away only 15 times. But they fared well against the Texans in their regular-season finale with two Vontae Davis interceptions of Matt Schaub and no turnovers. Still, if they fall into the problems that created their minus-12 turnover ratio, giveaways tend to hurt more in the postseason. The Ravens finished the regular season at plus-nine. Safety Ed Reed is aging, but he has a propensity for making interceptions in big games.
Time: Andrew Luck holds the ball too long at times in an effort to make a play, and sometimes the rush is on him too quickly because the Colts protection is less than stellar. When he has time and space to step into his throws, he can deliver some impressive passes. When he's being hit as he releases the pass, things get exponentially more difficult. The Ravens' pass rush is no longer the team's greatest strength, but its overall pressure and coverage schemes are trending stronger, and if Baltimore can find ways to pressure Luck, it can really change the game.
Rookie readiness: The Colts are super-reliant on rookies well beyond quarterback Andrew Luck. Tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener and running back Vick Ballard are starters and T.Y. Hilton is the third receiver. There are four other rookies on the roster, and another five guys who aren't technically rookies but qualify as first-year players. The speed and intensity of playoff games elevate a notch. Are the Colts ready for it? Or does the bigness of the setting finally affect them somehow?
Regular-season carryover: The Colts' starters are a little banged up after a huge effort against Houston last Sunday. Pagano talked a lot with his team about carrying mojo into the playoffs, and the Colts played their starters all of Sunday in a game that didn’t mean anything to their playoff positioning. Indy’s 28-16 win hurt the AFC South-rival Texans. But it may cost the Colts against the Ravens. Indianapolis has won two in a row and five of six. The Ravens had a giant 33-17 win over the New York Giants in Week 16. But they rested a lot of their banged-up starters in their finale. Joe Flacco threw only eight passes before he took a seat, and Ray Rice had just three carries. Guess which team is fresher and probably healthier for this game?
Familiarity and Crowd Noise: When the Colts hired Chuck Pagano to take over as head coach, they hired him away from the Ravens, with whom he was defensive coordinator. He should have special insight into Baltimore on both sides of the ball. But John Harbaugh and the Ravens will have an understanding of what Pagano is looking to do as well. The Ravens' offensive coordinator, Jim Caldwell, was coach of the Colts from 2009-11. While Indianapolis has had a lot of personnel turnover and new schemes in place, Caldwell knows plenty about a lot of the key holdovers. On the fan level, the Colts playing in Baltimore always brings out an extra degree of crowd noise and hostility at M&T Bank Stadium, already one of the loudest stadiums in the league. Advantage should go to Baltimore.
Baltimore opened the week as 6½-point favorites, according to OddsShark.com, and the line currently remains there. The over/under point total for the contest began at 46, and that number is also in the same place.
Rookie quarterback Andrew Luck has been a major factor in the Colts' overhaul. For the season, Luck threw for 4,374 yards (the seventh-highest total in the league) — completing 54.1 percent of his passes — with 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco had an up-and-down year, throwing for 3,817 yards — completing 59.7 percent of his tosses — along with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Flacco has never missed a start in 5 years in the league— and he outplayed Tom Brady in the AFC semifinals last January—so experience edge in QB's has got to go to Flacco and the Ravens.
Defensively, Baltimore gave up 350.9 yards per game, which ranked 17th in the league. They tied with the New York Giants for 12th in the NFL in points allowed, surrendering 21.5 points per game.
But it's really about the trending. Ravens are trending stronger on defense. The Colts are trending stronger on emotion and playmaking. Imagine, the Colts are 11-5 after a 2-14 season last year. They've got a unique mix of rookies and veterans…and free agents signed off the street. Ryan Grigson should get GM of the Year for what he's put together for the Colts. No way the Colts can be discounted or counted out of this one. But the overall advantages should favor the Ravens.
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