With only two days remaining until Super Bowl XLVIII kicks off, Denver Broncos head coach John Fox and Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll should already have the basis of their game plans in place.
In this year’s rendition of the NFL’s biggest game, it may be hard for the opposing coaches to find a strategic edge. While this year’s head coaches aren’t quite brothers like last year’s “Harbaugh Bowl”, Fox and Carroll have shared backgrounds nonetheless.
Both started out as assistants at Iowa State before moving up through the NFL ranks as defensive backs coaches and defensive coordinators before landing their respective head coaching jobs.
With similar pedigrees, the tactical battle between Fox and Carroll may be more one of personality than strategy.
For Fox to keep the momentum the Broncos have built up in the postseason, he must be able to manage the game, but not micromanage. “I think that’s the best thing about him. He’s a game manager. He’s not going to get in the way of what coach [Adam] Gase is doing offensively or what coach [Jack] Del Rio is doing defensively.” Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker told ESPN. “He’s going to make sure that we prepared the right way every week. He’s very consistent in that.”
For the Broncos to beat Carroll and the Seahawks, Fox will have to continue his reliance on the expertise of his coordinators. It’s not only coordinator Gase and Del Rio that Fox should lean on, but also Broncos’ special teams coach Jeff Rodgers.
On punt and kickoff returns, Seattle will be with the services of Doug Baldwin, Percy Harvin and Golden Tate. Baldwin has led all teams in the playoffs in kick return yardage and despite missing most of the regular season with various injuries, Harvin’s return of 58 yards was the longest in the NFL during the regular season. On punt returns, Tate’s 686 return yards led the NFL during the regular season.
In limiting the Seahawks’ return game, Rodgers told Broncos independent analyst Andrew Mason, “There’s sometimes, in some situations, where you may not throw down the middle to Albert Pujols. There’s a reason why you see intentional walks, there’s a reason why you foul Shaq at the end of the game. There’s a lot of different analogies you can use.”
As head coach, Fox’s duties include properly delegating duties to his coordinators. With Rodgers running the special teams, it appears Fox may have hit a homerun.
It’s not just special teams that will count; Fox will have to focus his team on limiting Seattle’s dynamic plays throughout. It’s a secret that Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch unveiled in one of his hard to come by interviews. When asked what was the key to Seattle’s offense, Lynch responded, “Explosive plays, those are plays over 20 yards.”
Denver’s defense was notoriously bad at limiting explosive plays during the regular season, and the team’s 51-48 win over the Dallas Cowboys during the regular season. But the Broncos’ defense has stepped up big in the team’s two playoff wins and the final two games of the regular season, allowing no more than 17 points in each of those wins.
Stopping explosive plays, like the kind Lynch has been a big part of, particularly in the run game, will be important. The Broncos held New England to just 64 rushing yards on 16 attempts in the team’s 26-16 AFC Championship win over the New England Patriots. Fox’s defense was well prepped to survive LeGarrette Blount in that game, so it would make sense for the Broncos’ to have similar preparation against “Beast Mode”, a very similar runner.
Another big part of a Super Bowl-winning strategy from Fox will be proper clock management. It’s something the Broncos were able to accomplish against the Patriots with over 35 minutes of possession on offense. Denver is currently on a four-game win streak dating back to the regular season, and in three of those games Denver has possessed the ball in excess of 35 minutes.
It’s a formula that has not only shown to be effective for Denver’s wins, but also for Seattle’s opponents. In the Seahawks last loss, a 17-10 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals, the Cardinals led the time of possession with 37 minutes total, despite giving up four turnovers.
Seattle has averaged 57 plays on offense throughout its season, and the Seahawks’ offense relies heavily on the run and the explosive plays Lynch brings up.
If John Fox is able to coach his team into controlling the ball offensively in tandem with shutting down Seattle’s explosive plays and run game, Pete Carroll will be grasping at straws to find a quick and effective answer.
It’s a foregone conclusion that John Fox will have to be a better manager of the game in order to outcoach the team of dynamic playmakers that Pete Carroll has built. His tools to accomplish that goal will be the reliance on the pieces around him, imploring his defense to limit explosive plays and proper management of the game clock on offense.
If Fox is able to complete even two of these three steps along the way, he will have a ripe plan for the defeat of Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks.
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