The great irony of this year’s NCAA Frozen Four is not in the fact the game is being played at Tampa’s St. Pete Time’s Forum, but rather what college hockey program is hosting it. College programs vie for that honor of hosting the Frozen Four even if their team may not be good enough to make it themselves. The dream of course is always hosting your own club in the big game, but odds are that is not going to happen. This year’s host is the University of Alabama-Huntsville. The Alabama-Huntsville Chargers were the left as the lone independent after the collapse of the College Hockey America conference a few years ago. The Chargers tried to join other conferences but no one would take them. Ultimately the university decided to cut the program and the only Div. I college hockey team south of the Mason-Dixon line ceased to be. A sad fate for any program. The Chargers are inching towards their season (2012-13), compiling a 2-28-1 record where they played many of the best programs in the nation including defending NCAA Champion University of Minnesota-Duluth. Personally I think its pathetic the CCHA or another college conference didn’t take in Alabama-Huntsville which seems insulting when you consider the fact these conferences travel to Alaska for games and do not seem to be too bothered by it but a trip to Alabama apparently was unacceptable.
The last hurrah of a dying Div. I program
One can certainly question the logic of placing the Frozen Four in a state that does not have Division I hockey but it is an attempt by the NCAA to grow the game, but as they have seen at some of their regional sites the attendance has been laughable at best with the lone exception of games played at Xcel Energy Center. It will be interesting to see how many fans are able to make the trip down to sunny Florida to cheer on their teams, but will Florida hockey fans show up to make up the difference not made up by the die hard college hockey fans?!?! We shall see. This year’s Frozen Four is a testament of contrasts. You have tradition versus the newcomers. Who will win out, here is an analysis of the four teams. Who are you rooting for?
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Minnesota Golden Gophers (WCHA) ~ 28-13-1
Team Summary: The Golden Gophers have surprised a lot of people in the WCHA this season as an pre-season coaches poll picked them to finish 6th in the league. Minnesota instead finished first, and won their first McNaughton Cup since 2005. Many felt the freshman class was going to be good, but not good enough to vault the team towards the top of the WCHA. For most of the last decade, the Golden Gophers have had the most NHL draftees lineup of any team in college hockey. This edition is no different with 17 players of the 27 on the club’s roster, a figure which most American Hockey League teams would be hard-pressed to match. The amount of NHL draftees on the Gophers roster is a testament to their recruiting but has also been a curse. It has meant the team often gets 1-2 seasons out of a player before they decided to try their chances at a career in professional hockey. The early defections have meant the team often goes through far more turnover than other programs where that have less NHL drafted players.
Why they will win: The lesser told secret of the Golden Gophers success has been its depth and balance of its blueline. Led by Sophomore Nate Schmidt, who has become a workhorse at both ends of the ice Schmidt really is the catalyst offensively for the Gophers as his mobility and hockey sense. Yet the group as a whole (Jake Parenteau, Seth Helgeson, Ben Marshall, Mark Alt, Justin Holl) combines mobility, physical play and smart positional play. Between the pipes senior Kent Patterson has been one of the best goaltenders in college hockey (28-13-1, 2.23GAA, .918%SP) making Minnesota one of the better defensive teams in the nation. Up front, the Gophers have a diverse attack led by Sophomores Nick Bjugstad, Zach Budish and Erik Haula and Freshman Kyle Rau combines clutch scoring ability with great tenacity in a pint-sized frame. Senior forwards Jake Hansen, Taylor Matson, and Nico Sacchetti have been waiting for this moment for their whole college career and they will not take it lightly. Minnesota has the speed, skill, size and grit to make them more than a handful for any opponent.
Why they won’t win: This is the first Golden Gophers team to make the NCAA tournament in 4 years. None of these players have been in the NCAA Tournament before let along the Frozen Four. Some of the Golden Gophers have big game experience in the World Junior Championships, but as a whole very few of them have been in any games as big as this. Inexperience could see this team fold under the pressure. Golden Gophers’ Head Coach Don Lucia as well as Assistant Coaches Mike Guentzel, Grant Potulny and goaltending coach Justin Johnson (although not as a starting goalie) will have to try to bring that of experience being there to these players and that could be a tough task.
Vs.
Boston College Eagles (Hockey East) ~ 31-10-1
Team Summary: Boston College is no stranger to this tournament, having won in 2010 the Eagles continue to be the pre-eminent powerhouse from Hockey East. The Eagles had their stumbles this season, going through a stretch where the team struggled to win games through December to late January. However, since late January the Eagles have been a winning machine, having won 17 in a row. Like their opponent the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Boston College has a lineup with a fair amount of NHL drafted players (9). However, throughout their history Boston College has been not been as subject to early defections as the Gophers’ have.
Why they will win: Offense, offense, did I mention offense? Boston College attacks you in waves with alot of firepower in its top 3 lines. Led by junior Chris Krieder, senior Barry Almeida, sophomore Bill Arnold and BC’s answer for Kyle Rau in similarly built (5’7″, 150lbs) and very skilled Johnny Gaudreau the Eagles are virtually impossible to match lines against. Boston College’s forwards all bring tremendous speed which make them very dangerous in transition. Don’t think BC is all a bunch of pint sized speedsters; Kreider (6’3″), Kevin Hayes (6’3″), Paul Carey (6’1″), Patrick Brown (6’1″) as well as the wide bodied Arnold (6’0″) make the Eagles a more physical team than you’d expect. Defensively, Boston College has a big and mobile blueline anchored by 6’3″ senior defenseman Tommy Cross and 6’4″ junior Brian Dumoulin. So if somehow you manage to slow down the offense (notice I didn’t say stop) and get through the big bodied defense you have to face junior goalie Parker Millner (27-5-0, 1.85GAA, .935%SP) who is one of the best goaltenders in college hockey. If anyone watched Boston College’s game against UMD, they won that game with a stifling defense and that’s saying something when you consider the Bulldogs had the most potent offense in college hockey.
Why they won’t win: Its tough to really find much of a weakness in Boston College’s game. Fundamentally this is another very strong Jerry York-coached squad. This team has experience, but they are still quite small. Boston College has proven in the past that it can play much bigger than the size of their lineup but they are facing against a team full of big bodied players that can skate well in the Gophers.
No matter what, this will be a tremendous match up and I have a feeling no matter how it turns out there will be lots of people in the college hockey world that will consider this the true championship game. Minnesota and Boston College bring a ton of hockey tradition with them, and it will be interesting to see how the match up plays out. As a lifelong Gophers fan, I’ll be rooting for Minnesota but I know that Boston College is a tremendous team that can beat you in many different ways.
Ferris State Bulldogs (CCHA) ~ 25-11-5
Team Summary: For the Ferris State Bulldogs, the Frozen Four is uncharted territory as they make their first appearance in the event in school history. The Bulldogs are an unheralded contrast to the the other semi-final of Minnesota and Boston College. Unlike those squads, there are no NHL drafted players on Ferris State’s squad. The Bulldogs play a defensive style that keeps games close and they can be quite stifling. Ferris State is a team that many just felt at some point they’d be overwhelmed by the pressure and knuckle under to teams with better pedigrees but the Bulldogs have managed to turn that underdog status as a real strength which continues to make them dangerous in this tournament.
Why they will win: The Bulldogs defensive style keeps games close but they do have some firepower. Senior forward Jordie Johnston is by far Ferris State’s most dangerous player, while junior Kyle Bonis is a decent finisher as well. Between those two are 8 game winning goals so Union will be looking to neutralize them both. Senior defenseman Chad Billins runs the power play and he has an effective shot from the point, 5 of his 7 goals came on the man advantage. Yet defense and their trapping style of play means a big key to the Bulldogs offense is creating turnovers in the neutral zone and quickly transitioning from defense to the attack. Their penalty kill is not only good at keep the opposition off the scoreboard but they’re adept at delivering the demoralizing shorthanded goal, and junior right wing Matthew Kirsinger is their scoring threat on the PK with 3 shorthanded tallies to his credit. Yet the defense is Ferris State’s greatest strength. Billins, Scott Czarnowozan, Simon Denis, Brett Wysopal, Jason Binkley, and Aaron Schmit may not provide a lot of points but they work very well in their end to take away passing and shooting lanes to allow the Bulldogs forwards to go on the counter attack. Between the pipes, senior goalie Taylor Nelson (20-6-3, 2.10GAA .923%SP) is very solid and doesn’t usually force his team to score 2-3 goals in order to earn a victory. The Bulldogs won both of their previous NCAA games by identical scores of 2-1 which gives you a good example of their stifling style of play.
Why they won’t win: The saying is that defense wins championships, but you still have to score in order to win games. The Bulldogs have the least firepower of any of the teams in the Frozen Four. That means the margin of error is very slim because if they try to get in a track meet scoring-wise with any of these teams they will be at a huge disadvantage. I know that every opponent that plays Ferris State realizes that Jordie Johnston is their workhorse offensively but since the Bulldogs are in the Frozen Four they’ve obviously failed in that task. Like the Gophers, the Bulldogs have no experience but they’ve defeated two NCAA Tournament regulars in Cornell and Denver so why should that be a huge obstacle. I have little doubt that Bulldogs Head Coach Bob Daniels will continue to push his underdog message as Ferris State would like to continue to take opponents by surprise. Coincidentally Daniels won the Spencer Penrose award as college hockey’s top coach for his efforts.
Vs.
Union College Flying Dutchman (ECAC) ~ 26-7-7
Team Summary: Like its opponent Ferris State, the Union College Flying Dutchmen are in uncharted territory as they school has never qualified for the frozen four. Union has a dynamic offense that can overwhelm just about any opponent. They dominated the ECAC and won the league title in convincing fashion. The small college from Schenectady, New York has done a great job of building its program and its reputation is growing as they expand their recruiting circle into the Midwest. I remember seeing Union College scouts at a Minnesota high school tournament I attended around Christmas this year and their roster features 3 players from the State of Hockey (Ryan Forgaard, Sam Coatta, and Tyson Fulton). Like Ferris State, Union has no NHL drafted players currently on its roster.
Why they will win: The Flying Dutchmen are led by junior Jeremy Welsh who is one of the top scorers in college hockey with 27 goals who works well with his set up man senior Kelly Zajac. Welsh is also one of the most sought after college free agents as well. Junior Wayne Simpson and sophomore Daniel Carr provide Union plenty of secondary scoring which forces opponents to pick their poison. From the blueline Mat Bodie is the power play quarterback that keeps the Flying Dutchmen’s power play dangerous and efficient. The Flying Dutchmen have lots of speed from top to bottom in their lineup and they use their superior skating to make themselves both effective on the forecheck and pesky defensively. Their blueline is not huge but they’re not tiny, but they can all skate well and transition from defense to offense quickly and put opponents on their heels in a hurry. Between the pipes the Flying Dutchmen are led by Wisconsin-born sophomore goaltender Tyler Grosenick (22-5-3, 1.64GAA, .936%SP) has the most impressive totals of any goalie in the Frozen Four. Grosenick gives Union that deadly combination of stingy defense and explosive offense that makes them a true threat to win a national title.
Why they won’t win: Union has more balanced scoring than Ferris State, but they lean heavily on Jeremy Welsh to lead the way. If you can find a way to stop him you limit the Flying Dutchmen offensively. Union has no experience in big games like this and while I am sure they’ll be eager to prove themselves. Flying Dutchmen Head Coach Rick Bennett has done a great job with the club, but they better not overlook Ferris State whose style of play is incredibly frustrating to play against. Union lost to Colorado College and Denver in the regular season so I am not sure if they have what it takes to win a national title.
I may be big WCHA / Hockey East centric, but I don’t think either Ferris State or Union has what it takes to knock out the winner of Boston College / Minnesota. While I think both schools would gladly invite the chance to challenge them I do not think either is as well rounded. Either way, I think you have two very intriguing match ups between members of the old guard and new faces.
So who do I think will win it all?
I know this may make me a pariah in Minnesota but I think Boston College is the team to beat. The Eagles are a very complete team and by far they have the most experience going into the Frozen Four. Jerry York is as good of a coach as you will find and the Eagles are always well prepared. Boston College has the talent at all three positions and I think they must be considered the favorite to win it all.
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