Peyton Manning has returned to the Super Bowl without the Indianapolis Colts. But if 2013 is any indication, however, his old franchise may not be far behind.
After all, they are the only team in football this season who can boast victories over both the Broncos and the Seahawks.
Even though the Colts went down in a hail storm of interceptions in New England in the divisional round of the playoffs, the arrow is very much pointing up on a franchise that has had unqualified success in each of the first two years of the Ryan Grigson/Chuck Pagano/Andrew Luck era.
After a roller-coaster ride of emotions and drama in 2012 that saw Indianapolis rebound from a 2-14 record to make the playoffs, the 2013 iteration of the Colts illustrated more offensive stability and overall talent than their recent predecessors. If the path back from oblivion is marked by incremental improvement, the Colts have only one box left to check on their to-do list:
Win the Super Bowl.
Heading into the 2013 season, the Colts had a short-list of things that had to happen in order for Luck’s second season as quarterback to be considered a positive one.
- Luck had to show improvement. The future of the franchise is in his hands, and Luck’s development as a leader and passer was and is the key to that future.
- The team needed to improve defensively.
- The Colts needed to win the AFC South.
- Making the playoffs needed to be punctuated with a postseason victory.
On every front, the team can feel good about their progress. To wit:
- Luck saw several of his key rate stats improve in 2013.
| DVOA | QBR | Passer Rating | |
| 2013 | 3.9% | 62.0 | 87.0 |
| 2012 | -5.1% | 65.0 | 76.5 |
Luck’s statistical improvement largely centered around turnover avoidance, as he cut his interceptions in half. Some of that was due to a conservative offensive design that went out the window in the playoffs. Luck threw seven interceptions in two games as opposed to just nine in the regular season.
Ironically, the injury to Reggie Wayne mid-season may prove to help the Colts in the long run. Without Wayne on the field, more responsibility fell on Luck as the unquestioned eye of the Indianapolis hurricane. His playoff heroics against Kansas City further established him as the dominant figure in whom teammates can rely.
- The Indianapolis defense improved by more than a field goal a game, finishing ninth in points allowed after finishing 21st in 2012. The finished the year 16th in DVOA, a climb of 15 spots in the FootballOutsiders’ primary efficiency metric. The Colts went from being one of the worst defensive units in football to a league-average one. Despite more than 80 points allowed in two playoff games, the defense trended in the right direction overall.
- The Colts reclaimed the AFC South title in a walk. Granted, the complete implosion of the Houston Texans was not a development anyone saw coming, but Indy fulfilled their pre-season promise as the best team in the division. Hosting a home playoff game and hanging a banner were important milestones for a young team seeking to create a new identity.
- Finally, the Colts bettered their 2012 playoff performance by winning a game. They missed out on the AFC Championship showdown thanks to a fourth-quarter letdown against New England, but they sent the message that they are among the best teams in the conference by advancing past Wild Card Weekend.
Players and fans alike were disappointed by the way the season ended against the Patriots, but it’s impossible for them not to take comfort in a season that saw every realistic goal attained. As the playoffs draw to a close, the Colts are among the AFC front-runners for 2014.
Aside from the Broncos, the AFC was clearly a cut below the NFC. The primary reason why is a lack of young talent at the quarterback position. With both Manning and Tom Brady topping 37-years old next season and Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers coming in on the wrong side of 32, Luck is the only star passer under 30 in the conference.
Barring a serious influx of talent at quarterback via the 2014 draft, Luck could spend the next five years facing off in the playoffs against the last generation’s list of heroes. His contemporaries will include Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton, neither of whom rank among the ten best passers in the league.
As long as Brady and Manning are in the conference, there won’t be any easy route to the Lamar Hunt trophy, but anyone looking for the next best option in the AFC after the usual suspects will have to turn to the Colts.
If Indy is going to take the next step in their championship evolution, they’ll have to solve several issues this offseason.
- While the defense improved, it lacked difference makers. Robert Mathis likely won’t have 19.5 sacks next year, and they’ll have to find ways to compensate should his production regress to his customary 10-12 sacks.
- Limitations at running back have to be addressed. Trent Richardson proved to be one of the worst players in the league in 2013, and there’s no clear answer on the roster at the position. Indianapolis still has to reconcile an antiquated focus on a run-based offense with the modern NFL. There are serious questions as to who will carry the ball for the Colts next season.
- Indy has need at the wide receiver position. With Wayne’s return to form far from certain and his age an ever-present factor, the team needs find out if young targets like LaVon Brazill and Da’Rick Rogers can mature into elite targets. Finding that future second target will be harder without a first-round draft pick to spend.
If the Colts can address these shortcomings, and Luck takes another big step forward, then this time next year they may well be on their way to the Super Bowl, even without Peyton Manning.
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