Matt Bernier has released his picks and predictions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby. This is the 149th running of the first leg of the American Triple Crown. The 1 1/4-mile horse race has been held at Churchill Downs since its inception in 1875.
This 20-horse race will be broadcasted by NBC with coverage beginning as early as 10:30 am ET this Saturday on USA Network. Pre-race activities start at 12:30 pm ET. The 2023 Kentucky Derby will be live-streamed via NBCSports.com. Post time for the Kentucky Derby 2023 is 6:57 p.m. ET.
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Matt Bernier Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions 2023
Forte (+325) is the betting favorite to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby. He’s won six of his seven career starts and his last five. “I think Forte is a very likely winner, but I don’t know if he’ll be a good win bet,” Matt Bernier said on his YouTube podcast.
Aside from picking the favorite, the horse racing analyst thinks Two Phil’s (+2000) and Confidence Game (+2500) are moving under the bettors’ radar. Angel of Empire (+800) could also finish in the top 3. An upset wouldn’t surprise him. Rich Strike won the race last year as an 80-1 longshot.
Forte (+325)
“Do I love Forte? No, but I could absolutely see him winning Saturday night,” Matt Bernier said. “I’m going with Angel of Empire to win Derby 149. But Forte is the more attractive pick.” Picking between Forte and Angel of Empire was a bit of a toss up. Forte’s highest recorded Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) was 100.
His stakes wins include victories in the 2023 Florida Derby (Grade 1), 2023 Fountain of Youth (Grade 2), and the 2022 Hopeful (Grade 1). At the Florida Derby last month, Forte outran Mage and Cyclone Mischief.
Two Phil’s (+2000)
“I think Two Phil’s is a good horse,” Matt Bernier said. “I think he’s a terrible price at 12 to 1. But I think Two Phil’s is a decent horse.” He was sired by Hard Spun out of the General Quarters mare Mia Torri. He was trained by Larry Rivelli and bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan.
Two Phil’s has raced at Canterbury Park, Churchill Downs, Colonial Downs, Fair Grounds, Keeneland, Turfway Park with wins at Canterbury Park, Churchill Downs, Colonial Downs, Turfway Park. His stakes wins include victories in the 2023 Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade 3), 2022 Street Sense (Grade 3), and the 2022 Shakopee Juvenile Stakes (LS).
He placed third at the 2023 Risen Star (Grade 2) behind Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder. While Bernier believes either Forte or Angel of Empire are solid picks to win this race, Two Phil’s is perfect for an exacta.
Confidence Game (+2500)
“Confidence Game, I had it set in my head. I hate the rebel; I don’t like the rebel. I don’t think it’s any good. … And I feel like now I’m compelled to use it because he’s gonna be 20 to 1. He’s not, you know, gonna be vying for favoritism. Maybe he’s just third or fourth. Maybe he’s just fourth. I’ll have a little sliver of Confidence Game underneath.”
The 3-year-old colt was sired by Candy Ride out of the Bernardini mare Eblouissante. He was trained by J. Desormeaux and was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine LLC. Confidence Game has raced at Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds, Keeneland, and Oaklawn Park. He also won the 2023 Rebel Stakes (Grade 2).
Kentucky Derby Betting Guides 2023
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