Steve Kornacki has released his picks and predictions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby. This is the 149th running of the first leg of the American Triple Crown. The 1 1/4-mile horse race has been held at Churchill Downs since its inception in 1875.
This 20-horse field Kentucky Derby will be broadcasted by NBC with coverage beginning as early as 10:30 am ET this Saturday on USA Network. Pre-race activities start at 12:30 pm ET. The event will be live-streamed via NBCSports.com. Post time for the 2023 Kentucky Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET.
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Steve Kornacki Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions 2023
Forte (+325) is the odds-on favorite to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
He’s won six of his seven career starts and his last five. Steve Kornacki believes Forte will more than likely come out on top. However, he’s also interested in Kingsbarn (+1200), Derma Sotogake (+1000) and Mage (+1600).
He thinks Kingsbarn can outrun Forte. One of his other top picks was Practical Move, but he was scratched from the race on Thursday due to elevated temperature.
For the bottom line, Kornacki is against picking the top favorite.
Kingsbarn (+1200)
“Most of the smart people who I listen to on the handicapping side of things are telling me I should get Kingsbarn out of my head,” Steve Kornacki said. “I understand the Louisiana Derby was run a glacial pace, and that might be a generous description of the pace of that race.
“It’s not going to be the pace that Kingsbarn gets in the Derby, but you know, maybe he was just taking what they were giving him that day. … I do think Kingsbarn can be forwardly placed. I just can’t get this horse out of my head.”
Derma Sotogake (+1000)
“I don’t have a hard time imagining Derma Sotogake winning the Derby, and I don’t have a hard time imagining Derma Sotogake becoming the next Mendelssohn,” Steve Kornacki added. “The great hope coming out of the UAE Derby, and this could be the year when a Japanese horse produces a winner.
“I don’t know what exactly has been the problem with the UAE runners in the Derby. To be 0 for 18 — and I think fifth place is the best performance, I look at Derma Sotogake and the pluses would be … a Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) of somewhere between 104 and 106. I like the jockey [Christophe Lemaire].”
Mage (+1600)
“I just sort of look at that race [2023 Florida Derby (Grade 1)] and think, ‘If you like Forte coming out of that race and you’re ready to take 5 to 2 on Forte, you could get Mage at a much, much bigger price than that,'” Steve Kornacki said. “I almost think to myself, ‘Why not just take Mage?’
“You know, three career races with potential upside there and improvement. … Watching Forte run in the Fountain of Youth of the Florida Derby actually made me more curious about Mage.”
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