Marcus Mariota is very, very good when the Tennessee Titans win, and very, very average when the Titans lose.
The second overall pick in 2015, Mariota has started 20 career games for the Titans—including last night’s 36-22 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Over seven wins, he’s completed 73.8 percent of his passes, with 21 touchdowns, only three interceptions and an incredible passer rating of 133.0. In the 13 losses, Mariota has a 57.6 completion percentage, with 12 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a passer rating of 75.0.
Mariota completed 18 of 22 passes for 270 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions during Thursday night’s win. His passer rating was 148.1, the second highest of his NFL career.
The Titans have never lost when Mariota has a passer rating over 100.0. But they’ve also never won when his passer rating is below 100.0.
Essentially, the Titans go as Mariota goes.
In the seven wins, Tennessee has averaged 32.6 points. In the 13 losses, the team’s average points dips severely, to 16.2.
Most quarterbacks have a noticeable split in wins and losses. For example, Aaron Rodgers has a 114.1 passer rating over 87 wins, and a 84.5 passer rating over 45 losses. Still, Rodgers’ gap of 29.6 passer rating points doesn’t even compare to Mariota’s 58.0.
Of course, 20 games isn’t a huge sample size compared to the 132 games Rodgers has played. Mariota is young, and the Titans are a young team building around him.
However, there’s no discounting how much effect Mariota has on whether or not the Titans lose. When he’s very, very good, the Titans always win. When he’s very, very average, the Titans always lose. Thursday night’s win over the Jaguars continued his 20-game trend to start his NFL career.
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