10 biggest X-factors in NFL’s wild-card round

Detroit Lions v Dallas Cowboys

The wild-card round of the 2016 NFL playoffs is set to begin, and these 10 players will bring a different meaning to the term “wild card.” Their performances will go a long way toward determining whether their teams advance to the divisional round or book tee times.

DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins was third in the NFL last season with 111 receptions. This year, that number dipped to 78.

However, Hopkins showed signs late in the season that he’s rediscovering his game-changing talent. He caught eight passes for 87 yards in the Texans’ Week 15 win over Jacksonville. Those all came from Tom Savage, which bolstered the theory that Hopkins didn’t mesh with Brock Osweiler.

On Sunday, Hopkins caught seven passes for a season-high 123 yards, and Osweiler threw all but one of those passes with Savage sidelined. Hopkins’ catch percentage of 63.6 percent was his second-best of the season. His best catch percentage came in Week 11 against the Raiders.

If Osweiler and Hopkins are finally developing a connection, it would spell trouble for the Raiders and their 24th-ranked pass defense when they visit the fourth-seeded Texans (9-7) Saturday.

Bruce Irvin

Raiders quarterback Connor Cook is expected to become the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to make his starting debut in the playoffs.

On the road, against the top-ranked overall defense and second-ranked run defense in the NFL, that’s a prescription for disaster.

It would be nice for the fifth-seeded Raiders (12-4) to think that Khalil Mack can wreck just enough plays to tilt the game in their favor. But after his eight-game sack streak this season, Mack finished the season without a sack in three straight games.

While Mack led the Raiders with 11 sacks this year, Bruce Irvin was second with seven and he led the NFL with six forced fumbles. The former Seahawk had two sacks in a 19-16 Week 15 win at San Diego that clinched the Raiders’ first playoff berth since 2002.

With so many Raiders in the playoffs for the first time, and with Mack likely to face a lot of double teams, Irvin will need to show his teammates what it takes to earn a Super Bowl ring and get after Brock Osweiler.

Eric Ebron

Lions tight end Eric Ebron was the No. 10 pick in the 2014 draft. The Giants took Odell Beckham Jr. two picks later. While Beckham has worked out better than Ebron so far, Ebron could be on the verge of breaking out.

Ebron has gone from 25 receptions in his rookie year to 47 last year to 61 this year. He caught a career-high eight passes on a career-high 12 targets at Dallas in Week 16. Over the last four weeks, Ebron has been thrown to 30 times, Golden Tate is the only Lion to be targeted more.

Tate figures to see a lot of Richard Sherman when the sixth-seeded Lions (9-7) visit the Seahawks Saturday night. Ebron will have an opportunity to make a name for himself if he can get open for Matthew Stafford.

Ebron’s contribution, however, will depend on how quickly Stafford’s finger is healing.

Zach Zenner

Because Matthew Stafford hasn’t been the same quarterback since he injured the middle finger on his throwing hand in Week 14, the Lions might have to lean more on their ground game.

The Lions are entering the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. One one hand, Zach Zenner might be responsible for the first domino that fell. The Lions trailed the Giants 7-3 early in the second quarter in Week 15 and were on the Giants’ 11-yard line after Stafford completed a 67-yard pass to Golden Tate.

Then Zenner fumbled on the next play. The Giants scored on their next possession and never looked back in a 17-6 win.

That was the first of the Lions’ three straight losses. Zenner ran for 67 yards and two touchdowns the following week in a 42-21 loss at Dallas. Then last Sunday he ran for 69 yards and one touchdown in the Lions’ 31-24 loss to the Packers. Zenner was the only Lions running back to carry the ball in that game. He’s also caught 18 passes this season for 196 yards.

The Seahawks have started slowly recently against non-playoff teams. They trailed the Cardinals 14-0 at home in Week 16, eventually losing 34-31. They trailed the 49ers 14-3 in the second quarter in Week 17 before getting past them 25-23.

If the Seahawks start slowly Saturday night, Zenner can’t let them off the hook with a fumble.

Steven Terrell

By now, “Earl Thomas’ replacement” probably appears before Steven Terrell’s name on his driver’s license.

Terrell has been inconsistent after taking over for Thomas at free safety. In the Seahawks’ 34-31 home loss to the Cardinals in Week 16, Terrell didn’t help out Jeremy Lane quickly enough on an 80-yard touchdown catch by J.J. Nelson that gave the Cardinals a 14-0 lead. Terrell improved in Week 17, allowing just one catch for 13 yards according to Pro Football Focus.

The third-seeded Seahawks (10-5-1) haven’t put together two wins in a row since Thomas went down in Week 13. Since they won at New England in Week 10, the only playoff team the Seahawks have faced was the Packers, and they lost that game 38-10 at Green Bay. Terrell doesn’t deserve a ton of blame for that loss as the Seahawks’ six turnovers repeatedly put the defense in bad spots.

If Matthew Stafford is still hampered by his finger injury, the Lions’ vertical game could be compromised and Terrell could be spared a playoff baptism by fire.

Stephon Tuitt

The Steelers allowed Jay Ajayi to run for 204 yards against them in a 30-15 Week 6 loss that opened the floodgates for their four-game losing streak. During that tailspin, LeGarrette Blount ran for 127 yards on them and Ezekiel Elliott ran for 114.

After the home loss to Dallas, the Steelers went five straight games without allowing 100 total rushing yards. They held LeSean McCoy to 27 yards in a 27-20 Week 14 win at Buffalo.

Stephon Tuitt was injured the following week at Cincinnati. In the two games since, the Steelers allowed 112 rushing yards to the Ravens and 231 to the Browns.

The third-seeded Steelers (11-5) will find out Sunday if Tuitt was the secret sauce that corrected their run defense. It could mean the difference between a trip to Kansas City for the divisional round and cleaning out lockers on Monday.

Ladarius Green

Aside from a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, tight end Ladarius Green is another offensive piece that wasn’t in place when the Steelers fell to the Dolphins in Week 6.

The Steelers signed Green as a free agent during the offseason. An ankle injury kept him sidelined until Week 10, but since returning he’s caught 18 passes in six games.

Green suffered a concussion in Week 15 at Cincinnati, but not before catching five passes in the Steelers’ 24-20 win. Three of those receptions were third-down conversions. Green missed the last two regular-season games but he’s been practicing this week and appears set to go on Sunday afternoon.

The Dolphins allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season, tied for third in the league. The 6’6″ Green would present a tall task.

Kraig Urbik

Only one Pouncey brother will take the field in Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Dolphins. Maurkice Pouncey is set to go at center for the Steelers, but his brother Mike Pouncey is sidelined with a hip injury.

But the person who is starting at center for the Dolphins still has a Steelers connection.

The Steelers took Kraig Urbik in the third round of the 2009 draft but released him a year later. He caught on with the Bills and played there for six years before they let him go. This season, Urbik has started the last three games at center for the sixth-seeded Dolphins (10-6). In Week 15, he helped open holes for Jay Ajayi to run for 206 yards in a 34-31 overtime win at Buffalo. It was the second time Ajayi ran for more than 200 yards against the Bills this season.

If that was a “revenge” game for Urbik, imagine what Sunday’s game will be like. At least the Bills kept him for six years. The Steelers never really wanted him in the first place.

As the Dolphins offensive line tries to pave the way for another 200-yard encore by Ajayi, Urbik at least has a little experience against James Harrison under his belt. He had to go up against him in practice when he was a rookie.

“Rookie year was just miserable,” Urbik told the Palm Beach Post. “Thankfully, I had people who realized I could be a good player in the league.”

It sounds like Urbik has an ax to grind, and Harrison or anyone else who has to get past him Sunday better have his chinstrap buckled.

Ereck Flowers

The Packers were tied for sixth in the NFL this season with 40 sacks. The Giants, on the other hand, allowed 22 sacks, the third-fewest in the league.

While the Packers’ pass rush and the Giants’ pass protection appears on paper like strength vs. strength, Ereck Flowers is the weak link of the Giants offensive line.

The second-year left tackle gave up a strip sack to Benson Mayowa against the Cowboys in Week 14. According to the New York Post he was assigned to block the Lions’ Ziggy Ansah the following week. Ansah hadn’t had a sack all season until that game. The Giants won those games, but might not be so fortunate if Flowers acts as a turnstile in the playoffs.

The good news for the fifth-seeded Giants (11-5) is that Flowers might have had his best game in their Week 16 loss to the Eagles.

If that’s the start of an improvement for Flowers, he picked a good time.

Jared Cook

Jared Cook is finally looking like the free agent sleeper that he had the potential to be when the fourth-seeded Packers (10-6) signed him in the offseason. His missed six games this season with an ankle injury and in the first seven games he did play he was limited to one reception every other week.

Cook has broken free from that trend with 13 receptions in the last three games. He caught four passes for 53 yards in Sunday’s 34-21, division-clinching win at Detroit. Two of those receptions came on consecutive plays. The first was an 11-yard gain on third-and-7 and the second was a 24-yard hookup to sustain the first scoring drive of the game.

The Giants have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (1,052) and the fifth-most receptions (89). Cook caught more than 50 passes in back-to-back seasons in the Rams’ anemic offense. If he’s rounding into form with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, it could be a long Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field for the Giants.

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