The 2013 NFL Playoffs are set to kick off tomorrow, and fans and analysts alike are preparing to huddle around their TV sets and enjoy some wild card action.
This year’s matchups are particularly interesting, as three of the four games are rematches from earlier in the season, and NO-PHI, with those two explosive offenses, is already setting up to be a cult classic.
Let’s take a look at each game, with some analysis, key stats and score predictions mixed in.
Kansas City Chiefs AT Indianapolis Colts (Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET)
No better way to kick off the postseason than with two teams moving in opposite directions! The Chiefs have lost five of their last seven games, and the Colts have won four of five, after going through a brief “adjustment” period dealing with the loss of possession WR Reggie Wayne.
When the two teams met just two weeks ago in Arrowhead Stadium, the Colts won, 23-7. Indianapolis played Kansas City’s physical brand of football with a lot of pressure from its defensive front, but played it better, rushing 34 times for 135 yards. They also generated pressure on QB Alex Smith throughout the game, who was sacked five times and also turned the football over thrice.
For Indy, the game will be on the shoulders of franchise QB Andrew Luck, who has been very efficient with the football of late, with a 8:1 TD/INT ratio in his last four games. The Colts QB plays very poised and seems to look much more comfortable on the Lucas Oil Stadium turf and is 13-3 at home in his career. Nate Dunlevy refers to him as a “cerebral” quarterback in his KC-IND preview, and he’ll look to utilize his high football IQ to sniff out where the pressure’s coming from before the snap to exploit some mismatches against the Chiefs DB’s, who struggle in man-coverage.
The Chiefs offense starts and ends with MVP-candidate RB Jamaal Charles. With 1,980 total yards from scrimmage (19 TDs, 70 receptions), it’s clear who Kansas City will look to for a victory, in what looks to be as up low-scoring, grind-it-out game. The Colts rank 26th against the run, and stopping Charles will be key. If they can force pedestrian QB Alex Smith into strictly passing downs, they’ll fare well in the game.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has done an amazing job with a team that won just two games last season, but the run ends here, as Luck will simply outperform the weak-armed, check down-loving Smith—making some big plays in the fourth quarter and leading the way in his first career postseason victory,
Prediction: Colts 23, Chiefs 20
New Orleans Saints AT Philadelphia Eagles (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
On paper, this game should be the most exciting game of the weekend, as the two former Westlake High School QBs (Brees, Foles) prepare to battle it out. And both teams have been a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators this season, as these explosive offenses can score in the blink of an eye (Eagles average 417 ypg, Saints put up 399).
All eyes will be on Chip Kelly’s team as the new head coach prepares for his first career playoff game in the NFL. After a remarkable turnaround, taking a team that won just four games last season to the big dance, he’s a candidate for coach of the year. Saints HC Sean Payton, however, is no newbie to the playoffs, with a 5-3 record in the postseason and a Super Bowl ring.
The Saints running backs excel at catching passes out of the backfield (although RB Pierre Thomas is out for the game due to a chest injury), and have (arguably) the best screen game in the NFL. Teams have to account for TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marques Colston in the middle of the field, but must also account for the running backs underneath. And it’s extremely important to wrap up when tackling, something the Eagles have struggled with in recent years.
Both teams will look to get their speedy weapons on offense going in space for yards after the catch. Speaking of space, NFL rushing champion RB LeSean McCoy is deadly with real estate to run through. However, he has been invisible in the postseason, averaging only 58 yards/game (0 TDs) in two career appearances.
QB Nick Foles is looking to become the third Eagles QB in 32 years to win a playoff game at home. He’s having a stellar season, but hasn’t been in a situation where he’s had to carry the team on his back coming from 10+ points behind or more. The Saints can sometimes jump out to an early lead out of the gate, and it’ll be interesting if the young QB has to play from behind.
On Sunday, something has to give: The Saints field the second-best passing offense in the NFL, and the Eagles rank dead-last defending the pass.
Prediction: Saints 34, Eagles 31
San Diego Chargers AT Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
While CenturyLink Field may be known for possessing the NFL’s biggest home field advantage, the Bengals are 8-0 at Paul Brown Stadium this season. Not only is it a tough environment for road teams to come and play in, but the turf suits the young, speedy team well, and allows them to play to their strengths.
The Chargers, on the other hand, do not play well on turf. And an early start time for a West Coast team making its fifth trip across the country this season certainly doesn’t bode well for them, as NFP’s Joe Fortenbaugh astutely points out on SI’s Audibles Blog.
When these two last met in Qualcomm Stadium back in December, the Bengals outrushed the Chargers 164-91 en route to a 17-10 victory. The Chargers didn’t record a single sack in the game, and even though QB Andy Dalton had an “off-game”, Cincinnati used its defense to lead the way to victory.
The Chargers rank 23rd in the NFL in total defense (366.5 yds/gm), and the Bengals have scored 34 or more points in each of their last five games at home. And quite frankly, San Diego is lucky to be playing in this game. A blown call on a fake punt allowed them to escape with a victory against the Chiefs’ backups in overtime, and while this team (especially Rivers) manufactured a tremendous turnaround in Mike McCoy’s first season as head coach, the Bengals are a much better team in all aspects of the game, and San Diego is outmatched.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Chargers 17
San Francisco 49ers AT Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The 49ers enter the postseason as the hottest current team, having rattled off six consecutive wins. But unfortunately, the 12-win team may be cooled down by a bad rule, as they are forced to travel to a frigid Lambeau Field. The game time temperature is expected to be at or around zero degrees, with a minus-20 wind chill to boot. This would be the coldest game in 49ers playoff history—but the team is practicing in 60-degree temperatures, while the Packers are preparing in the cold weather. Niners coach Jim Harbaugh is one of the best at getting his team prepared for big games, especially on the road, but this decision is a bit puzzling. And the Packers have the elements on their side.A lot has changed since Week 1, when the Niners edged out a 34-28 victory at Candlestick Park. QB Colin Kaepernick passed for 412 yards (208 to WR Anquan Boldin), his highest total of the season by over 100 yards. Green Bay has found a running game with the Eddie Lacy-James Starks duo at RB, but San Francisco has weapons back on offense and historically, controls the trenches and punches the Packers in the mouth with its physical, smash-mouth brand of football.
Kaepernick is 2-0 vs Green Bay with a QB rating of 112.5 in his career. When the two faced off in the postseason last year, he decimated the underprepared Green Bay defensive unit with the zone-read, rushing 16 times for 181 yards (2 TDs). The team hasn’t run it nearly as much this season, but with the cold weather, expect to see more of it on Sunday. But the Packers will be ready after last season’s embarrassment. They have plenty of tape to study, just ask former LB Erik Walden, whose abysmal job of outside contain against the mobile QB cost him a future with the team.
In the past, the Niners have shown they can win cold-weather games when it matters, but below-freezing temperatures are a shock to players’ bodies if they’ve never experienced it. However, with the Arctic temperatures slowing down each team’s passing game, it’ll likely come down to which team can run the football better, and the Niners have the advantage there with the better offensive line and RB corps.
RB Frank Gore has rushed for 100+ total yards and/or one touchdown in all five career playoff games, but has never played in a game with a kickoff-time temperature of 20 degrees or less (via Fox Sports).
Rodgers, on the other hand, is 12-4 in NFL games played in freezing temperatures (via ESPN Stats & Info).
Football is a game of the elements, and while I think the Niners would probably find a way to win on a neutral field with an above-freezing temperature, the Packers will find a way to get revenge against the team that has beaten them three times in the last two seasons. The numbers say they get it done, but it won’t be easy, and it’ll be a dogfight throughout.
Prediction: Packers 24, 49ers 23
(Photo credit: NFL on ESPN)
(Unless otherwise noted, all statistics for this article came from Pro Football Reference and Team Rankings—two sites that I highly recommend all NFL fans bookmark!)
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
