The last time these two teams met, they set offense back about a half of century. They combined for 187 total passing yards and four turnovers in the Carolina Panthers 10-9 victory over the then home-standing San Francisco 49ers. For those of us who love hard-hitting defense, that was definitely the regular season game of the year. With all this said, we cannot look back to Week 10 of the regular season when drawing an ultimate conclusion about this NFC playoff matchup.
So many things have changed over the course of the last two months or so, it would be foolish to think that the outcome of that game will have any impact on what happens at Bank of America stadium come Sunday.
Here is our full preview of the Panthers-49ers matchup this upcoming weekend.
San Francisco 49ers Offense
This unit has everything you look for to be electric. A young phenom at quarterback, a possible Hall of Famer at running back, one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, two solid starting wide receivers and a Pro Bowl tight end. But why hasn’t it clicked on all cylinders thus far this season? While San Francisco is averaging a whopping 27.6 points per game since its Week 3 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, a lot of that has to do with it possessing one of the best, if not the best, defense in the entire National Football League.
San Francisco finished the regular season with the 30th-ranked passing offense in the NFL, just ahead of the New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers…both of whom were starting rookie quarterbacks. Kaepernick put up over 200 passing yards in just two of his first 10 starts of the regular season. The only pass catchers to tally a touchdown prior to Michael Crabtree’s nab against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15 were Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. To put this into perspective for a second, Kyle Williams played 21 snaps against these very same Panthers in Week 10 and was released a day later. Simply put, the 49ers passing game was nothing short of atrocious over the course of the first 10 games of the season.
It is, however, important to look at run/pass balance rather than simply saying a unit ranked third-worst in the NFL in a specific category.
Kaepernick averaged just 26 pass attempts per game, which ranked him second-to-last in the NFL among quarterbacks who started every game. Again looking at perspective, that average was about 15 attempts less than what Peyton Manning averaged with the Denver Broncos during the regular year. If you aren’t putting the ball up in great volume, you are assuredly going to rank among the worst passing offenses in the NFL. It’s basic math, people.
With all that said, San Francisco did average 13.2 yards per completion on the season, a number that ranked it among the best in the NFL in that category. When the 49ers did put the ball up, they weren’t without success.
Frank Gore and the running game was a completely different story The 49ers ranked third in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular year at about 138 yards per game, including 105 against the Panthers back in Week 10. Gore put up a franchise record seventh 1,000-yard campaign in 2013, going for about 4.3 yards per touch. Meanwhile, Kaepernick finished the regular year 524 yards and an average of nearly six yards per attempt. Heck, even Kendall Hunter tallied nearly 400 total yards on the season.
A lot of this success has to do with San Francisco trotting out one of the best offensive lines in the entire NFL. Both of its starting guards, Alex Boone and Mike Iupati, are among the best run-blocking interior linemen in the entire league, while Pro Football Focus graded center Jonathan Goodwin out as the seventh-best run-blocking center in the NFL.
Some expected San Francisco to slow down a tad when it lost fullback Bruce Miller for the season to a shoulder injury, but that has been far from the case. It is averaging 150 rushing yards per outing since Miller went down against Tampa Bay in Week 15.
Once Crabtree returned from his torn Achilles in Week 13, San Francisco’s offense picked up steam. Including the wild card game against Green Bay, the 49ers are averaging 361 yards per game with No. 15 in the lineup. As you must know by now, I like to look at perspective. On that note, the 49ers put up a minimum of 361 yards in just four of their first 11 games with Crabtree out of the fold. It’s hard to imagine one player making that much of a difference, but its readily apparent that Crabtree does just that.
Carolina Panthers Defense
This has to be considered one of the most surprising units in the entire NFL. With the additions of draft picks Luke Kuechly, Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short over the past two seasons, Riverboat Ron has built a top-three defense. Carolina yielded just an average of 15.1 points per game on the season, which ranked it second in the league behind the Seattle Seahawks. It also ranked first in the NFL, yielding just 12 points per game at home on the regular year.
Carolina gave up less than 300 total yards eight different times, 10 points or less five times and forced two-plus turnovers 10 times. The Sean McDermott-led defense also ranked second in total defense, second against the run and sixth in passing yards allowed.
Needless to say this unit was absolutely dominating in the regular season and was one of the primary reason that Carolina won 12 of its final 14 games.
Back to the two rookies for a second, check in on how well Lotulelei and Short graded out against the run, per Pro Football Focus.
Not too often can two rookies come in and make this much impact, especially as a duo along the defensive line. Carolina yielded 70 rushing yards or less seven different times during the regular year, besting the No. 2 team in that category, Arizona, by two games.
One of the front runners for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors is second-year Panthers’ linebacker Luke Kuechly, who ranked second in the NFL with 156 tackles during the regular season. While Kuechly did struggle against the pass in the second half of the season, he is among the best run-stuffing inside linebackers in the league. That could come up huge against one of the best running teams in the NFL.
Carolina’s front seven was the primary reason that it ranked sixth in the league against the pass. After all, the likes of Captain Munnerlyn, Drayton Florence, Melvin White and Michael Mitchell aren’t really going to scare opposing teams in the defensive secondary.
If given time, quarterbacks will be able to beat the Panthers’ defense in the passing game. One of the major issues with this was the performances of defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy who combined for 26 sacks, 34 quarterback hits and a ridiculous 87 quarterback hurries. It goes without saying that this unit is absolutely stacked in nearly every possible way. Its front seven definitely makes up for shortcomings along the secondary, which could come in handy on Sunday.
Carolina Panthers Offense
This unit was far from impressive during the regular year. The Panthers ranked 26th in total offense, 29th in passing offense and finished in the bottom half of the NFL in points scored. One of the major issues with Carolina’s passing attack was the fact that Cam Newton went down 43 times in 2013, compared to 36 times the previous season. The third-year quarterback faced pressure in the pocket 37 percent of the time he dropped back to pass. Going up against the likes of San Francisco and possibly both the Seattle Seahawks or New Orleans Saints in the playoffs cannot bode well for the former No. 1 overall pick.
Carolina did, however, rank 11th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Interestingly enough, this was a regression from the ninth-ranked rushing offense in the league back in 2012. If the Panthers are forced to throw the ball in large sums during the playoffs, they are going to be in trouble. Newton is 8-17 in his career when he attempts 30-plus passes and 18-6 when he doesn’t.
Despite having a franchise quarterback, Carolina’s success on offense goes through its running game. When DeAngelo Williams (1,176 total yards), Cam Newton (585 rushing yards) and Mike Tolbert (545 total yards) are on their game, the Panthers offense can be electric. When they struggle getting it going on the ground, this unit becomes nothing more than mediocre.
Greg Olsen led all Panthers pass catchers with 876 receiving yards with Steve Smith coming in second at under 750 yards. Carolina’s second-leading wide receiver was Brandon LaFell, who put up just over 600 yards during the regular season. These statistics are an indication that Newton doesn’t necessarily have that go-to guy in the passing game. With recent reports that Steve Smith has missed practice this week and may be a game-time decision, Carolina’s passing game could be in real trouble come Sunday, especially going up against a top-10 passing defense in the form of the 49ers.
San Francisco 49ers Defense
The 49ers defense has been downright scary this season. They rank in the top 10 in almost every major statistical category and only got stronger as the season went on. Heck, a point could even be made that San Francisco currently possesses the best defense in the NFL. Normally more stout against the run and getting to the quarterback than in pass coverage, Vic Fangio’s unit has been equally as stout in that aspect of the game. Just look at what opposing quarterbacks have done against the 49ers since Week 1.
Now you might want to take a look at the passing yards accumulated against San Francisco in its final two regular season games, but it’s worth noting that Ryan and Palmer also put up nearly 100 passes combined in those two games, both losses. In fact, quarterbacks that attempted 40-plus passes against San Francisco this season went a combined 1-6.
Quarterbacks of the more mobile variety especially struggled against the 49ers in the regular season. Russell Wilson (two games), Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck combined to throw two touchdowns with a 75.7 quarterback rating in four games. They also combined to tally just 101 yards on 27 rush attempts.
Much like in Carolina, the 49ers front seven was a major reason why they had success against the pass. Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks all earned Pro Bowl spots, while Pro Football Focus graded Aldon Smith out as the fifth-best pass-rushing 3-4 linebacker in the entire NFL. For their part, the younger Smith and Brooks combined for 18 sacks and 53 quarterback hurries. Seemingly unable to buy time in the passing game, quarterbacks were forced to throw into tight windows against a vastly improved 49ers’ secondary.
Cornerback Tramaine Brock, who replaced the now retired Nnamdi Asomugha in the cornerback rotation back in September, has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL. He recorded a team-high five interceptions in the regular season. Brock was complemented by a tremendous safety duo in the form of veteran Donte Whitner and rookie Eric Reid, both of whom had Pro Bowl-caliber campaigns. It’s this type of utter domination on the defensive side of the ball that has enabled San Francisco to yield less than 15 points per game since Week 3.
Key Matchups
Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin vs Melvin White and Captain Munnerlyn : This has mismatch written all over it. White, an undrafted rookie free agent, going up against San Francisco’s No. 1 wide receiver who has been downright dominating in his last four playoff appearances. Unless McDermott and Co. decide to double over the top, Crabtree should have himself a field day in this one. Even if Carolina does decide to double, that would leave single coverage on Anquan Boldin on the opposite end of the field and Vernon Davis in between the hashes. Pro Football Focus gave White a -4.8 grade in coverage during the regular year, while Crabtree has tallied 28 receptions for 410 yards in his last four playoff outings. Carolina could also decide to keep their corners in place when San Francisco motions Crabtree pre-snap, but this would then put Munnerlyn on Crabtree with White going up against a physical beat in Boldin. Carolina will have to get creative in this matchup.
Joe Staley vs Greg Hardy: Talk about a clash of the titans in the trenches. Both Hardy and Staley were absolutely dominating at their positions during the regular year, which resulted in trips to the Pro Bowl. For Staley, it represents his third consecutive invite to Hawaii, while Hardy was recognized the first time. Looking at Pro Football focus once again, Staley graded out as the sixth-best offensive tackle in the NFL during the regular year with Hardy coming in as the third-best 4-3 defensive end. Whoever wins this battle will likely help his team win the war.
Vernon Davis vs Luke Kuechly: Davis put up an average of 16.3 yards per reception during the regular season, which ranked him first among regular tight ends in the league. He also nabbed over 63 percent of the passes thrown in his direction and finished second behind only Jimmy Graham with 13 touchdowns from the tight end position. Kuechly, a second-year stud from Boston College, is likely to finish in the top-five of the Defensive Player of the Year voting. He is all over the field against both the run and the pass. However, opposing quarterbacks did complete over 76 percent of the passes they threw against the stellar young linebacker on the season. It remains to be seen if Carolina will look for help over the top or put slot man Drayton Florence on Davis, but it’s readily apparent Kuechly won’t be able to handle the athletic tight end by himself.
Home/Road Splits
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San Francisco went 6-2 away from Candlestick during the regular season, outscoring its opponents by an average of 27-16 per game. Meanwhile, Carolina went 7-1 at home and outscored its opponents by an average of 13 points per game. While the Panthers home splits are to be expected, especially for a 12-4 team, what San Francisco did away from home was simply amazing. Now that Jim Harbaugh and Co. must win three games away from Candlestick (barring a Saints upset over the Seahawks), they are now taking well to the “road warrior” mystique…and for good reason. Including the postseason, San Francisco is 19-7 on the road under Jim Harbaugh.
Looking at quarterback play, it’s really intriguing how Kaepernick and Newton compare in this game. Kaepernick has won seven of his nine road starts this season and boasts a quarterback rating in the mid 90’s. Newton, on the other hand, put up 16 total touchdowns compared to six interceptions for a quarterback rating in the triple digits at Bank of America Stadium during the regular year.
Carolina Panthers Keys to the Game
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Maintain Momentum at Home: This is huge. Carolina has won seven consecutive games at Bank of America and is coming off a bye against a team that had to cross the United States through the air over the course of the last week or so. The Panthers should be the more rested team, and need to use home-field to their advantage against a 49ers’ team that travels well.
Limit Newton to Under 30 Pass Attempts: As I mentioned before, Newton boasts a 8-17 record when he attempts 30-plus passes. Carolina is 4-3 this season when he puts the ball up that many times. Meanwhile, opposing teams are 2-10 against San Francisco when they throw the ball 30-plus times. It’s going to be all about generating a run game with DeAngelo Williams, Mike Tolbert and Newton on the ground. If that doesn’t happen, Carolina will likely end up falling short in this one.
Contain Kaepernick on the Ground: Including the postseason, Kaepernick boasts a 8-2 record when he rushes for a minimum of 50 yards. More important than that, the young signal caller seems to be more comfortable within the context of the game when he’s given up lanes to run through after an initial pass play isn’t there. If you can contain Kaepernick in the ground with spies and by cutting off the edge, he can be limited through the air. If not, he’s the football equivalent of a five-tool player.
San Francisco 49ers Keys to the Game
Control the Trenches: This may seem like a broad statement, but San Francisco needs to impose its will against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. It has the talent and bulk up front to do just that. It’s now all about actually taking that talent to the game come Sunday afternoon and outplaying the Panthers in the trenches. This means Joe Staley needs to dominate Greg Hardy, while Anthony Davis needs to hold his own against Charles Johnson. More than that, the interior of San Francisco’s offensive line must perform well against Carolina’s two-headed rookie monster at defensive tackle.
Take Advantage of Obvious Mismatches: Captain Munnerlyn may have performed well in coverage during the regular season, but he doesn’t present any sort of a physical matchup against Anquan Boldin. Meanwhile, we covered the Michael Crabtree-Melvin White matchup earlier. There is no reason why San Francisco’s two starting receivers shouldn’t win these matchups. Equally as important, Vernon Davis needs to do his thing against the likes of Luke Kuechly and/or Mike Mitchell. This is the type of matchup problems 49ers general manager Trent Baalke and Co. envisioned when they added Boldin to the mix in the offseason. Can they take advantage of it?
Final Prediction
This is going to be one of those old school defensive battles. When looking at tape of their Week 10 matchup, I couldn’t help but be reminded of the old Pittsburgh Steelers-Oakland Raiders games of the 1970’s. While I wasn’t lucky enough to be alive during those times, replays on NFL Network and ESPN enabled me to acquire a great understanding of what the Steel Curtain meant. Both San Francisco and Carolina bring that steel to the table on the defensive side of the ball.
A lot will be made of the Newton-Kaepernick matchup. And for good reason. They were selected in the same draft, both define what the future of the NFL quarterback looks like and have been downright dangerous in their three seasons in the league. On that note, check out my article focusing on the two young quarterbacks from earlier this week on Yahoo!
While these two quarterbacks will be the talk, I have to go with San Francisco’s experience over Carolina’s perceived home-field advantage. Kaepernick and Co. seem to up their game on the offensive side of the ball in the playoffs and have their full complement of weapons in the passing game. Barring domination from Carolina’s front seven, which is a possibility, I don’t see Carolina matching up well against San Francisco’s passing game.
On the other hand, Carolina’s success on offense will depend heavily on the health of an aging Steve Smith. If he is limited or unable to go, the Panthers are going to have a lot of trouble moving the ball through the air. If so, San Francisco can run its base defense and focus on stopping Williams, Newton and Tolbert on the ground. That’s not a recipe for success for the home team here.
In a close game, I am going to go with San Francisco returning to the NFC Championship game for a third consecutive season by the score of 20-13.
Vincent Frank has been covering the National Football League for three years. He started out writing for Bleacher Report and is currently the head editor at eDraft, a columnist at Pro Football Focus and Yahoo as well as the news director at Pro Football Central. Vincent co-hosts a weekly radio show called “Football Debate Central” with former NFL player Ryan Riddle and has seen his work featured on CNN, BR and Los Angeles Times, among many other outlets.
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