Part of what makes the NFL great is that every season is unpredictable. Analysts and fans like to think they have a good grasp on the best and worst teams before a season begins, but more often than not, at least half the teams in the league surprise or disappoint in one way or another.
Here are the eight NFL teams most analysts got wrong in 2016.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins came out of nowhere to win 10 games and clinch a playoff spot in the AFC, despite finishing 6-10 last season and starting over with first-year head coach Adam Gase. Miami overcame an ugly 1-4 start, winning six straight games and nine of the last 10 to attain a playoff berth.
The Dolphins’ revival was sparked largely by emerging star Jay Ajayi, who has rushed for 1,213 yards and eight touchdowns, despite not becoming a full-time player until Week 6. He’s also produced three 200-yard games in that span. Backup quarterback Matt Moore helped continue the momentum late, with three straight wins after starter Ryan Tannehill went down for the season with a knee injury. Miami is now in the postseason for the first time since 2008.
Cincinnati Bengals
Most believed the Bengals would once again compete with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North title, but Marvin Lewis’ team will miss the postseason for the first time since 2010.
The Bengals will wonder what could have been in 2016. Six of the team’s nine losses came by one score or less, including a three-game streak of one-possession losses after Cincinnati’s bye week. The Bengals also tied the Washington Redskins in London.
Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense simply underperformed in too many games. Cincinnati is 0-8 when scoring 20 or fewer points this season, and their offensive struggles in a number of games doomed them.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys rebounded from a disastrous 4-12 season in 2015 to win 11 straight games and lock down home field advantage in the NFC this year.
Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, behind a dominant offensive line, have powered the comeback of America’s Team. Prescott has been poised and efficient (23 touchdowns, four interceptions) as a first-year quarterback, while Elliott is the NFL’s leading rusher and a huge difference-maker behind an all-star offensive line.
Improvement for the Cowboys was widely expected in 2016, but few foresaw Dallas being a dominant force in the NFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Young talent all over the roster had many ready to proclaim the Jaguars as a team that would make a legitimate run at the postseason this season. The emergence never happened. In fact, it was just more of the same in 2016.
The Jaguars started 2-3 and then lost nine straight games, leading to the eventual firing of head coach Gus Bradley. Jacksonville has now lost at least 10 games in each of the last six seasons.
Much of the blame falls on the shoulders of quarterback Blake Bortles, who has completed 58.6 percent of his passes—with 16 interceptions and a passer rating of just 77.6—during a very disappointing 2016 season. Any future revival in Jacksonville will have to include an answer at the quarterback position.
Detroit Lions
A 7-9 Lions team from last year lost All-Pro receiver Calvin Johnson to retirement, and still somehow found a way to get better in 2016.
Jim Calwell’s team won five straight games after a 4-4 start. The Lions have been the comeback kings of the NFL, and with one game left in 2016, Detroit can clinch the NFC North with a home victory over the Green Bay Packers.
Most expected the Packers and Vikings to battle it out for the division lead in 2016. Instead, the Lions have led the division for the better part of the last two months. One last victory and Detroit’s mission will be complete.
Carolina Panthers
The Super Bowl hangover hit the Panthers hard. After putting together a 15-1 regular-season record that ended with a loss to the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl, Carolina lost five of its first six games to start 2016. The Panthers’ season was all but finished early in December.
The magic just seemed to run out in Carolina. Reigning NFL MVP Cam Newton has just 23 total touchdowns in 2016 (he had 45 last year), while the Panthers once-dominant defense now ranks 27th in the NFL in points allowed per game (25.7).
The ball bounced Carolina’s way at every turn last year. Luck has a funny way of evening out eventually.
Atlanta Falcons
It’s easy to forget now that the Falcons lost eight of their last 11 games to finish last season. Matt Ryan and the NFL’s most productive offense has made sure last year’s collapse didn’t happen again in 2016.
The Falcons rank first in points scored and second in yards gained. The main reason for that is Ryan, who is a legitimate MVP candidate, with 4,613 passing yards, 35 touchdowns and a passer rating of 115.5. Running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have combined for 22 total touchdowns, while Julio Jones has 1,313 receiving yards in just 13 games.
The Falcons are 10-5 and champions of the NFC South. It seems likely that Atlanta will go into the postseason with a first-round bye as the conference’s No. 2 seed.
Arizona Cardinals
A popular Super Bowl pick ended up being one of the most disappointing teams in 2016. A year after winning 13 games (a franchise record) and advancing to the NFC Championship game, the Cardinals have limped to a 6-8-1 record that will keep Bruce Arians’ team out of the postseason.
Carson Palmer and the Cardinals’ passing game hasn’t been prolific like last season, the offensive line has been a mess, and Arizona’s defense has given up over four more points per game over 2015.
The Cardinals might be the most talented team in the NFL to not make the postseason. That’s a harsh reality for a team most expected to be playing deep into January again.
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