Only four weeks of regular-season play remain in the 2016 NFL season, but it’s still hard to determine which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.
The Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and Oakland Raiders all have double-digit wins and seem headed toward first-round byes in the postseason. And after destroying the Carolina Panthers on Sunday night, the Seattle Seahawks appear to be a heavy favorite to secure the fourth and final bye as well.
But the rest of the playoff picture is very unclear aside from the top four teams. With that said, here is a closer look at the contenders and pretenders with Week 13’s games now in the books.
Contenders
Kansas City Chiefs
A rare home loss to the Buccaneers a few weeks ago could have shaken the confidence of Andy Reid’s team. Instead, the Chiefs have responded by going on the road in back-to-back weeks and earning huge wins over the Broncos and Falcons. Winners of seven of their last eight games, the Chiefs are now firmly entrenched as a serious contender in the AFC.
But it could soon get better in Kansas City. Thursday night’s game against the visiting Raiders could decide who wins the AFC West, with the winner on track to secure a first-round bye in the postseason.
Detroit Lions
The Lions will likely have to fight off doubters every week to finish this season, but there can be no more dismissing what Detroit has put together over the last two months. Jim Caldwell’s club has won seven of its last eight games, including Sunday’s dismantling of Drew Brees and the Saints in New Orleans.
Detroit is getting better on defense, and Matthew Stafford—a legitimate MVP candidate—has thrown 14 touchdowns and exactly one interception over his last eight games. This is a team trending in the right direction to start December, but the Lions’ final three games—against the Giants, Cowboys and Packers—will put their contender status to the test.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have long felt like a team capable of getting hot at any time. Now, with three straight wins—including Sunday’s comfortable 24-14 victory over the Giants—it appears Pittsburgh is finally starting to put all the pieces together for a run at the postseason.
Sunday’s big development was the statement by the Steelers’ defense, which forced two Eli Manning interceptions and held New York to just 284 total yards. Pittsburgh could become a scary opponent in the AFC if Mike Tomlin’s defense can start matching the talent of all the weapons (including breakout tight end Ladarius Green) they have on offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Has any team had a better three weeks than the Buccaneers? After wins against the Chiefs in Kansas City and the Seahawks in Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers went back on the road and came from behind to beat the San Diego Chargers on Sunday.
Now 7-5, Tampa Bay is tied with the Atlanta Falcons atop the NFC South and in possession of the NFC’s sixth seed in the playoff field.
Why should we believe in the Bucs as contenders? Well, quarterback Jameis Winston has a passer rating of 100.9 during the team’s four-game win streak, while the Tampa Bay defense has allowed just 13.3 points per game with 11 takeaways over that same span. The Bucs are looking more and more complete each week.
Pretenders
Miami Dolphins
Miami’s six-game win streak came to a screeching halt on Sunday, when the Dolphins traveled to Baltimore and got blown out by the Ravens. Miami is still 7-5 and very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt, but is anyone willing to bet on the Dolphins beating out a team such as the Broncos or Steelers for a wild-card berth?
Adam Gase’s team is a nice story, but the Dolphins are once again looking like long shots to make the playoffs, especially with two road games and a visit from the Patriots left on the schedule.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have won just once since starting 5-0. There are many reasons for Minnesota’s 1-6 stretch, but an offensive line still struggling to find answers remains at the top of the list. All of the Vikings’ issues seem to come back to the line, especially when looking at a condensed offense that is lacking big plays in the passing game.
The Vikings will be in every game thanks to an elite defense, but it’s very hard to believe a team with such a huge weakness will suddenly turn into a contender over the final four games.
Washington Redskins
There’s still time for Washington, especially with a favorable schedule over the final four games. But it’s hard to identify a player that they can count on to consistently come up big down the stretch. Quarterback Kirk Cousins had two big turnovers during Washington’s loss to the Cardinals on Sunday, and the defense has now allowed 26.6 points per game since the start of Week 8.
The Redskins are just too inconsistent and mistake-prone to be considered a serious contender, even in the shaky NFC.
Houston Texans
The Texans will enter Week 14 atop the AFC South, but that’s hardly a distinction worth celebrating. Houston is now 6-6 after losing three straight games, including Sunday’s 21-13 loss to the Packers in Green Bay.
The Texans have talent and difference-makers on both sides of the ball. But unless Brock Osweiler suddenly turns his disappointing season around, Houston’s promising start will remain an afterthought—regardless of whether or not they win the division.
To Be Determined
Denver Broncos
A win over the Jaguars doesn’t change much for the Broncos. The team still has big question marks on offense, but a defense capable of shutting down any opposing quarterback makes Denver a dangerous foe in the AFC.
Green Bay Packers
Back-to-back wins have revived Green Bay’s season, but there’s still plenty of work to do for the 6-6 Packers. Next Sunday’s showdown with the Seahawks should determine whether the resurgence in Titletown is real or not.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons suffered a demoralizing loss when Matt Ryan’s pass on a two-point conversion attempt was intercepted by Chiefs safety Eric Berry and returned 98 yards for the game-winning score. But here’s the reality: Atlanta is just 3-4 over its last seven games, and Tampa Bay is now even with the Falcons in the NFC South at 7-5 overall.
New York Giants
The Giants are 8-4 and in control of their postseason destiny, but Sunday’s loss to the Steelers once again exposed how hard it is for New York to score points against good teams. Upcoming games against the Cowboys and Lions could drastically alter the outlook of the Giants’ 2016 season.
Baltimore Ravens
Few teams are harder to figure out than the Ravens, who walloped the surging Dolphins by 32 points on Sunday. Baltimore has won four of its last five games, but it’s still difficult to find a quality win on the Ravens’ schedule. A trip to play the Patriots next Sunday night in Foxboro provides an opportunity to finally get one.
Indianapolis Colts
A blowout win over the Jets moved the Colts into a tie with the Texans atop the AFC South. Andrew Luck makes Indianapolis the favorite to win the division right now, but the Colts don’t have a roster built to win in the postseason.
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