The 149th edition of the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 6, at 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC. One betting expert sharing his picks for the Derby is Ed DeRosa of Horse Racing Nation. Let’s take a look at Ed DeRosa’s expert picks and analysis for the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
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Ed DeRosa Kentucky Derby 2023 Picks and Predictions
There have been no changes to the frontrunner as Forte (+325) remains the favorite heading into the weekend. Tapit Trice (+600), who DeRosa likes on his exotics, has the next best odds, followed by Angel of Empire (+800). To fill out the rest of his exotics, DeRosa is keying in on Skinner (+2000) and Disarm (+3300).
Tapit Trice (+600)
DeRosa believes Tapit Trice “checks every box” of a horse that he likes to play. Tapit Trice is the most expensive horse in the field, having gone for the auction price of $1,300,000 to Antony Beck. Tapit Trice has one of the best trainers in the world, Todd Pletcher, who has trained two Kentucky Derby horses – Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). Luis Saez, who won the Belmont Stakes in 2021, will ride Tapit Trice in the Derby.
Tapit Trice is a perfect 3-0 in 2023, with his most recent win coming in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) at Keeneland last month. DeRosa said, “What we have seen so far from Tapit Trice would be good enough to win, but I think he can move forward, and that makes him super dangerous.”
Skinner (+2000)
Next on DeRosa’s betting ticket is Skinner (+2000), who is fresh off a third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last month. DeRosa will have some magic on its side with trainer John Shirreffs, who trained the 50–1 Derby winner Giacomo in 2005. With an Equibase Speed Figure of 104, Skinner is a natural closer who will look to make a move late in the race.
Despite no wins in 2023, Skinner is racing tough, with a third-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby. DeRosa said that Sinner “has been win shy but has flashed moments of brilliance that can get the job done.”
Disarm (+3300)
The final horse to find itself on DeRosa’s ticket is Disarm. You would be hard-pressed to find a better trainer-jockey combo in the field than Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. Asmussen, the winningest trainer of all time in North America, is still searching for his first Derby win. Rosario won this race back in 2013 on Orb. In the 2022 Kentucky Derby, Asmussen and Rosario teamed up on Epicenter, who finished in second place.
Disarm is definitely a long shot, which is why DeRosa wants to include it in his exactas and trifectas. DeRosa said, “No. 11 Disarm is more an exotics sweetener for me, but we’re coming off a $162 winner, so we have to throw in a bomb.”
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