The NFL season usually sees multiple new head coaches.
There is never an offseason where we don’t see a few head coaches get let go.
A good head coach in the NFL is critical to a team’s success.
Some head coaches are fairly untouchable.
Unfortunately, there will be head coaches that will be let go either during the NFL season or shortly after the regular season is over.
Below, we will take a look at the odds, according to BetOnline, of which head coach is the most likely to be fired first.
First NFL Head Coach Fired
The odds for which head coach will be fired first have been listed, according to BetOnline.
Here are the top 10 head coaches that are favored to be the first head coach fired.
| NFL Head Coach | First Coach Fired Odds | Play |
|---|---|---|
| Mike McCarthy | +500 |  |
| Todd Bowles | +600 | |
| Ron Rivera | +700 | |
| Dennis Allen | +800 | |
| Kevin Stefanski | +900 | |
| Josh McDaniels | +1000 | |
| Matt Eberflus | +1400 | |
| Matt Lafleur | +1400 | |
| Mike Vrabel | +1400 | |
| Arthur Smith | +1600 | |
1. Mike McCarthy (+500), Dallas Cowboys
Mike McCarthy is the favorite to be the first head coach fired.
He is the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys and has been rumored to be on the hot seat for quite some time now.
Despite constantly being on the hot seat, McCarthy has a very good roster and has made the playoffs two years in a row.
He won a playoff game last year with the Cowboys.
McCarthy once again has a very good roster.
He should make the playoffs, which makes it unlikely he will be the first head coach fired.
2. Todd Bowles (+600), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Todd Bowles has a weak roster, that will unlikely to contend for the playoffs.
They are the worst team in the NFC South.
Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask will be under center in week 1.
Bowles is the second favorite to be fired because it’s very possible he gets let go midseason.
3. Ron Rivera (+700), Washington Commanders
With new ownership taking over in Washington, they may want a new head coach.
Rivera enters the season with Sam Howell at QB, the worst QB in the NFC East.
Similar to the Bucs, Washington is unlikely to contend for a playoff spot, which could force new ownership to let Rivera go midseason.
4. Dennis Allen (+800), New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints brought in Derek Carr to be the new QB under center.
Allen has a good roster and the Saints have an excellent chance of winning the NFC South.
A slow start or a letdown season could be troublesome for Allen.
However, New Orleans has a team that will be in the thick of things in the NFC South.
It would be surprising if Allen is the first head coach to be let go.
5. Kevin Stefanski (+900), Cleveland Browns
Kevin Stefanski and the Cleveland Browns underachieved last season.
The Browns paid Deshaun Watson a massive contract, which puts Stefanski at risk of being let go.
If Cleveland once again does not make the playoffs, Stefanski will be on the hot seat.
While it is unlikely he is the first head coach to be let go, if the Browns start very slow, it’s possible Stefanski gets let go midseason.
6. Josh McDaniels (+1000), Las Vegas Raiders
Many felt Josh McDaniels should have been let go last year after the Raiders had a miserable season.
McDaniels has not had success at being a head coach.
He has only seen success being the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots.
It feels like McDaniels does not have what it takes to be a head coach in the league.
The Raiders could be in store for another letdown season, which could cause McDaniels to be the first head coach fired.
7. Matt Eberflus (+1400), Chicago Bears
Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears are expected to take a major step forward.
This is why Matt Eberflus is on the hot seat.
With higher expectations, the leash will be shorter on Eberflus.
If the Bears start out of the gate slow and by midseason are not contending for the NFC North crown, Eberflus’ job will be in serious jeopardy.
When it comes to siding with a QB or head coach, teams typically go with the QB and let the head coach go.
This could be a reality for Eberflus.
Eberflus will need to have the Bears vastly improved from last year or he could be let go midseason.
8. Matt Lafleur (+1400), Green Bay Packers
Going from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could cause Lafleur to be on the hot seat.
While Lafleur has seen success during his time with the Packers, many attribute it to having Aaron Rodgers.
Lafleur will not have his future HOF QB anymore.
This could open people’s eyes and put Lafleur on the hot seat if the Packers struggle early.
Lafleur is hoping Love can play well and keep Lafleur’s job secure.
With a slow start, Lafleur could be on the hot seat.
9. Mike Vrabel (+1400), Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans had a letdown season last year, going 7-10.
They added DeAndre Hopkins, which was needed.
Before acquiring Hopkins, the Titans had arguably the worst WR group in the league.
Still, the Titans do not have a very threatening roster.
Pro Football Focus ranks their offensive line as the worst in the league entering the 2023 NFL season.
A slow start and falling out of AFC South contention early could put Vrabel on the hot seat.
10. Arthur Smith (+1600), Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are similar to the Chicago Bears.
A lot of hype and excitement could put Arthur Smith on the hot seat.
Desmond Ridder will be under center for Atlanta with a much-improved offense.
Bijan Robinson was drafted in the first round to be a bell-cow RB.
Drake London and Kyle Pitts are two extremely talented playmakers.
Pro Football Focus ranks their offensive line seventh best heading into the 2023 NFL season.
With higher expectations, the leash will be shorter on Smith if the Falcons start slow.
Which NFL Head Coach Is Most Likely To Be Fired First?
While Mike McCarthy is favored to be the first head coach to be fired, he is not the best bet or the most likely coach to be let go first.
McCarthy has a very good roster and he should make the playoffs, which makes it unlikely he will be the first head coach fired.
The most likely coach to be let go first is Todd Bowles (+600).
Tom Brady retired in the offseason.
Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask will be under center in week 1, which is clearly a significant downgrade at the most important position.
The entire offense will take a major step back following Brady’s retirement.
Bowles is the most likely coach to be fired first because his team is not good and will not contend in the NFC South.
A midseason firing for Bowles seems likely, which makes him the most likely candidate to be the first head coach let go.
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