Two of MLB’s top sluggers, Los Angeles two-way star Shohei Ohtani, the AL’s home-run leader with 31, and Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson, who paces the NL with 29 HRs, will be absent from Monday’s Home Run Derby.
But among those who committed to stepping into the batter’s box for the prime-time, long-ball showcase, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (+280) remains favored to slug his way to a third derby crown.
In 2022, the back-to-back titleholder was upset by Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez.
This season they get to do it again.
Get ready for a bunch of BIG FLIES because the Home Run Derby bracket is set 🍿
📺 July 10, 8 ET on ESPN and ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/1AYm1dpmf2
— ESPN (@espn) July 6, 2023
Pete Alonso Set For Home Run Derby Rematch
Rodriguez, the No. 7 seed who could get a boost from the home crowd, will face Alonso, the second seed, in a highly anticipated first-round slugfest.
In other opening matchups, Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert, the event’s top seed, will face off against Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman (No. 8); Lost Angeles Dodgers’ Mookie Betts (3) goes up against Montreal Expos first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (6); and Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia (4) will face Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena (5).
Alonso, who topped the derby field in 2019 and then in ‘21 after the previous All-Star festival was canceled because of COVID-19, may be the odds-on favorite, but if he survives the first round, he could face Guerrero in the semifinals and Robert in the finals.
Both would be formidable opponents.
Despite hammering just 13 first-half homers, Guerrero (+370) has the second-best odds of claiming the derby.
That is high praise considering he must stave off Betts in the first round and then either Alonso or Rodriguez in the semis. While his homer total may be down, whenever he did make contact, only two players averaged a higher exit velocity than Guerrero’s 94.5 mph.
His derby history makes Guerrero a good bet. During the epic 2019 affair, he clubbed a record 91 homers in the three rounds, including a memorable 40 in the semifinal win over Dodgers slugger Joc Pederson.
Here’s a crazy stat from Darren Rovell: the MLB paid Pete Alonso $767,670 more ($2M total) for six hours during the Home Run Derby in 2019 & 2021 than the Mets paid him for both seasons ($1,232,330)#Mets #MLB #MLBTwitter #Baseball #Sports #HomeRunDerby pic.twitter.com/eJIfc5sz1c
— Gabriel Schray (@schrayguy) July 13, 2021
Top Seed Luis Robert Has Easier Path To Finals
To overlook any opponent would be foolish, but Robert is expected to depose of Rutschman in the opening round. Rutschman has just 11 pre-All-Star break homers.
While Robert has a reputation for taking plays off during the regular season, if he enters the derby focused, he has value at +450. His power is undeniable. Of his first 25 homers this season, they travel an average distance of 406 feet.
Still, Alonso has 174 career derby round-trippers.
No wonder he’s favored.
Here are the odds for 2023 Home Run Derby participants, according to Covers.com:
Player, 2023 HRs, Derby Odds
- Pete Alonso (New York Mets), 25, +280
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays), 13, +370
- Luis Robert Jr. (Chicago White Sox), 25, +450
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners), 13, +500
- Adolis Garcia (Texas Rangers), 22, +650
- Mookie Betts (Los Angeles Dodgers), 23, +700
- Randy Arozarena (Tampa Bay Rays), 16, +850
- Adley Rutschman (Baltimore Orioles) 11, +1,300
*-Odds and stats through Thursday
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