Tough break at the worst possible time, it seems, losing your star difference-making QB on the cusp of a championship run. I admit I was one of the sobbers. In fact, if you recall, the top priority I asked for in coming off the Eagles’ west coast road trip was coming home healthy. That as it turns out just wasn’t in the cards.
Chris Ruggiero (ATV) says this season is now ruined, and in fact the 2018 season may be ruined also because Carson Wentz is likely to miss all of OTA’s and most of summer training camp while he rehabs from ACL surgery. When ATV speaks, I listen.
But as over-reaction Monday fizzles into the sunset, I’m feeling better about moving forward with what we’ve got left to try to make a mark in the NFC playoffs.
Nick Foles is no slouch. He’s more than serviceable as a signal-caller. He may not have the athleticism or the downfield vision of Carson Wentz, but he has the experience and the ability to manage a controlled game on offense.
I use a point system to evaluate QB’s… I try to measure their value in real-time points difference by the simple fact of having them in the lineup. At the top of the scale you have guys like Brady, Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Big Ben, who are bringing +12 points to the table every time they line up. Carson Wentz was already up there with guys like Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford, probably worth +10 points each simply by their mere presence on the field.
I’ve got Nick Foles at +3 points…but that is actually pretty good. It’s how I currently rank Carson Palmer (when healthy), Joe Flacco (declining ranking with a post-ACL lack of mobility and a bad back), and Eli Manning (declining ranking due to a terrible team and doomed coaching staff around him). I also have Jay Cutler and Marcus Mariota at +3.
That’s a good score for Foles because there are probably 10 other starting QB’s and 20 other backup QB’s in the NFL who bring negative points to the table. For instance, Geno Smith has a -7 in my book, and that’s being generous. Blake Bortles has a -3 in my book. Tyrod Taylor is the only QB I have ranked at zero—which represents a totally neutral effect upon an offense. The good thing about a zero ranking is you are generally not going to cost your team a loss by making mistakes that give points away. It also means, however, that you are not going to make many difference-making big plays to win close games.
I think the task ahead for the Eagles is to simply formulate an offensive game plan that avoids negative plays. It helps that Carson Wentz himself will still be in the QB meeting room sessions with Foles. Wentz can point to prior battles with two of our three remaining opponents in the regular season—the Giants and the Cowboys—and help out Foles with film study. I think that is a big advantage for Foles as he prepares to take this team’s offense down the road to wherever destiny leads us.
The kicker in the “play it safe” equation is we are going to score less points on offense. If you go with my theoretical “QB points value” idea, we are trading Wentz’ +10 point value for Foles’ +3 point value. That means for us to keep winning, a positive 7 points differential is going to have to come from a combined effort of Eagles defense and special teams to make up for what we have probably lost on offense.
Almost sounds like the Trent Dilfer scenario back in 2000 when the Ravens ran the table in the playoffs with a tight defense and superlative special teams play, and a backup QB who was simply asked not to screw things up on offense.
I guess that is where we are right now with the 2017 Eagles. It hurt to see the mask pulled off the Lone Ranger, too, but I got over it. So did the Lone Ranger when Tonto came to the rescue.
I’m all in—again. Here’s to Foles Gold.
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