Your Morning Dump… Where we talk Rockets vs. Celtics because it might happen

…but it probably won’t.

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big storyline. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Why is it unlikely that the Celtics will be meeting the Rox next summer? Fred Katz has the answer in one short sentence about halfway through this morning’s preview over at MassLive (I should also add, I’m thoroughly impressed by these articles, Katz & Westerholm are really extending themselves with analysis of the lineups and matchups from top to bottom).

Anthony’s flaws become more exploitable during a playoff series.

The Rockets, at this giddy point in time, may think that they’ve added a guy who will only help their team: They’re–they tell themselves–not depending on this guy, therefore he’s only going to be a net positive to the team.

And that kind of thinking is why I’m decidedly bearish on the prospects of the Houston team (well that along with ongoing confidence in Mike D’Antoni which, to me at least, resembles the irrational confidence Cowboys fans used to have in Tony Romo–‘he’s definitely a better than average QB, so of course they’re going to win a Super Bowl!!’)

Katz goes on to elaborate:

Donovan Mitchell called for ball screen after ball screen until he could get Anthony to switch onto him. The veteran forward would often break coverage in doing so. Once Mitchell got what he wanted, a one-on-one matchup with a 15-year veteran far heavier-footed than he, the game was his. By the end of the series, the Thunder were sitting Anthony during closing time.

There is, however, a major difference between what Utah did to Anthony and what the Celtics could: Boston wouldn’t need to worry about forcing switches. It could go right at him.

In last week’s preview of the C’s vs. the Warriors, Katz noted that the Celtics are more athletic than the Warriors. That is certainly the case in any match up against Carmelo Anthony. It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which Carmelo could stop anyone from Terry Rozier on up to Al Horford or even Robert Williams.

Of course, such things would happen only if the Celtics met the Rockets in the Finals, and it’s Carmelo’s sheer exploitability on defense that is one of the major reasons why I don’t think that’s going to happen. If everyone on the Celtics roster from Baynes to Yabusele can torch Anthony, there are plenty of players in the West that can do it as well.

There’s also the question of how well the Celtics can defend the Rockets. The narrative last year was Marcus Smart’s success against James Harden. Smart was significantly better than he was the year before, and while some of that is undoubtedly statistical noise, one factor that should be considered is that Jaylen Brown is a better defender against Harden than anyone the Celtics had available in 2016/17 apart from Smart himself.

With either Brown or Smart on him, Harden doesn’t seem likely to get any easy minutes against the Celtics, and given that his game is based on an uncanny (and some, myself included, would say an incredibly ugly) ability to get easy shots (including freebies from the charity stripe), making Harden work for every shot he takes is going to–if nothing else–put him in an unfamiliar place. The Celtics are smart enough, collectively, on defense, to reduce the efficiency of Houston’s offense, and with a defense that has taken a decided step backward with the addition of Anthony, the Rockets don’t present an insurmountable obstacle to the Celtics.

But, again, that assumes they end up on the league’s biggest stage to begin with. I have my doubts.

The Rockets were within one game of the NBA Finals last season and Daryl Morey’s solution was to add a player who was thoroughly one-dimensional when he was younger and healthier, and who is now so much of a net negative that even a poorly coached and underachieving team like the Thunder saw the wisdom of sitting the guy during crunch time.

It’s difficult to see what need the Rockets addressed by adding Anthony (or, for that matter, Michael Carter Williams). Were the Rockets in need of a guy who is a liability on defense, and who has a demonstrated knack for turning otherwise efficient offenses into the basketball equivalent of a drunk co-worker hogging the mic at karaoke night? Because, if so, they’ve now got him.

(About the picture: We’re pretty sure Harden still doesn’t think that’s a foul)