Marcus Stroman, TOR
Marcus Stroman, 92mph Cutter…and Scream (after 6 shutout innings). pic.twitter.com/vc4zQ1BKyU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 23, 2019
Stroman is energetic, exciting, now an All-Star player, and despite having one more full year before entering free agency, it appears as certain that he will be dealt by the Blue Jays this July. Stroman has even publicly given his thoughts on pitching for the Yankees, a team who will definitely be in on the sweepstakes. He will be on the more expensive side, but given Toronto’s urgency to swing a deal as well as the uncertainty that comes from his last 2 seasons, he should at least be a realistic target for the Phillies if they are looking for someone to pair with Nola at the top of the rotation.
The 28-year-old is a unique pitcher at the very least. Standing only 5’8”, he’s made his name by producing over 57.5% groundballs in every season since his rookie year. That has come with mixed results, a low strikeout profile like his will result in some seasons with a high BABIP and low LOB%, like 2018, in which his ERA was 5.54, but his underlying numbers matched his 2017, in which he had a 3.09 ERA. In 2019, it’s swung the other way again, as his earned run prevention has been 30% better than league average. So where does he stand given no good or bad luck? Stroman has an xFIP and DRA just around 4.00 over the past 2 seasons. In 2019, his xFIP is a bit worse as a result of more fly balls being allowed, but his DRA in slightly better.
Overall, Stroman appears to be a mid-rotation arm. Just like Leake, Stroman has the ability to go deep into games without losing much effectiveness. Over his career, his xFIP the 3rd time through the order is 3.90, so the Phillies should feel comfortable leaving him in deep into games, even late in the season. Outside of that, some value with Stroman comes with his upside. Despite being 28 already, he doesn’t appear to be done developing. He made several tweaks to his pitch mix this season, has been throwing out of the zone more often, and he’s not done there. Stroman has hinted that he is working on a changeup to introduce soon, which could revitalize his game if effective. His penchant for looking for ways to improve, as well as experimenting with things such as messing up a batter’s timing, allows for some hope that he has a late-career breakout, especially under the right team. There could even be some more ways to fix his career past improving his pitch mix. Stroman stands in the 87th percentile in fastball spin rate, but research from Driveline shows his spin axis is stopping him from gaining more movement on the pitch, so he actually has potential to make the pitch better. He’s still working on using his fastball and cutter to attack the top of the zone to miss bats, so you could see some improvement there.
So if Stroman is a mid-rotation arm now with upside for more later, what is he worth on the trade market? ZiPS projection system believes right now he will be worth about 3.5 fWAR over the course of his deal and considering whichever team trading for him will be competing with others that are also in a pennant race. Based on how much money is left on his deal, I would expect a prospect return to the Blue Jays from the Phillies to be headlined by someone like Adonis Medina or Spencer Howard, depending on who the Blue Jays prefer.
Stroman rounds out the six American League starters I think the Phillies could look to target this July. There are also five National League starters that will be touched on later, but for now, the team will need to focus on staying in the playoff hunt.
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