With two games left in the season, the Washington Commanders are making a quarterback change. After starting the first six games, Carson Wentz is back in, replacing Taylor Heinicke. The Commanders are holding on to the last wild-card spot after a December cold spell. But is going back to Wentz the right idea?
Carson Wentz will be our starting QB this Sunday against Cleveland
📰 https://t.co/onplVq7EBW pic.twitter.com/1cwJ44d0AS
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 28, 2022
The Troubles of Taylor Heinicke
Taylor Heinicke became the starter while Wentz was on injured reserve. After a 2-4 start with Wentz, the Commanders went on a hot streak, winning five of the next six of Heinicke’s starts. The main highlight was a Monday night upset of a then-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles team in Week 10.
Even with Wentz activated from IR, head coach Ron Rivera decided to keep continuity, sticking with Heinicke as the starter. The Commanders entered December at 7-5, amid the NFC playoff picture.
However, the Commanders have gone cold in December, going on a three-game winless streak. Including a tie to the New York Giants in Week 13, followed by a Sunday night loss to the Giants two weeks later.
On the surface, Heinicke’s passing numbers have been serviceable in this stretch. He has completed 64.7% of his passes, thrown five touchdowns, and just one interception. Unfortunately for Heinicke, he has still struggled with turnovers. While only throwing one interception in the last three games, he has also lost a fumble in all three games. In the second meeting against the Giants, he lost two in a one-possession loss. Last week in San Francisco, he threw his lone interception in this stretch along with another lost fumble.
Turnovers have been a kryptonite for Heinicke all season. Just this season alone, he has at least one turnover in every start, including one in each of his four starts.
The Commanders with Carson Wentz
Carson Wentz was the original starter for the Washington Commanders. He started the first six games before going on injured reserve with a broken finger. It was not a good start for the Commanders, going 2-4 with Wentz.
The offense was more pass-happy with Wentz in comparison to Taylor Heinicke. Wentz averaged 38.6 pass attempts compared to Heinicke’s 28.7 attempts per game. As a result, Washington’s offensive production relied heavily on the passing game. The running game, mostly Antonio Gibson, averaged 95.5 yards per game with Wentz. In comparison, the Commanders, with a healthy Brian Robinson Jr with Gibson, averaged 1425 rushing yards with Heinicke.
Similar to Heinicke however, Wentz had an issue with turnovers in his starts. In two of his six starts, he had multiple interceptions, which can be expected given his attempts. He also had trouble dealing with pressure, as shown by his 8.5% sack rate, 25th in the NFL. In contrast, Heinicke’s 6.8% is 19th in the league.
Was it the Correct Decision?
The Commanders are in a desperate position. They went winless in a crucial stretch of their season, two against a division opponent and division rival. Taylor Heinicke was a player on borrowed time. While Washington was winning with him at the helm, his play continued to put his team in difficult positions with his turnovers.
Carson Wentz offers more raw arm talent than Heinicke, and there have been signs of a potent passing attack with him. In theory, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel will have more opportunities to make plays with Wentz due to more targets. However, Wentz is not perfect himself. The last time he was in a playoff chase, he had his worst performance of the season against a three-win team and his Colts were eliminated.
While Wentz can be seen as the more talented player of the two, Washington Commanders fans may be watching Sunday’s game with a lot of nervous energy.
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