Bill Polian’s tanking theories are a little off

It’s widely believed that in 2011, the Colts engaged in a behavior that rhymes with the word “luck” in order to finish with the worst record in the NFL and take Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft.

Bill Polian was the general manager of that team, and that 2-14 record got him fired.

Now an ESPN analyst, Polian says that tanking in the NFL has gone too far. He said on Mike & Mike, via Pro Football Talk, that the Browns tanked last season.

“The thing that worries me is that the Browns essentially tanked the season last year and no one said — except a few of us — said anything about it. And it may well be that this is something that can spread around the league, and I don’t think that’s good for the sport in the long run. Because in the end it robs the customers of the chance to see a competitive team,” Polian said.

This came up because Polian was asked if the Jets are tanking by releasing veterans such as David Harris, Nick Mangold and Brandon Marshall and also showing Eric Decker the door. Polian didn’t say the Jets were tanking, but did say that it’s a disturbing trend in the league.

Polian might have it backwards. It can be argued that the Jets, while not necessarily trying to land the No. 1 pick, are trying to end up maybe in the top 10 of the 2018 draft and draw from a quarterback class that’s believed to be better than the one that came out this year.

If that’s what the Jets are doing, they should take a lesson from the Colts. Unlike the NBA, where tanking is a fact of life, it’s rare for one player to instantly turn a franchise around on his own. Sure, the Colts went from 2-14 to 11-5 in Luck’s first three seasons, but he hasn’t taken them to a Super Bowl and his career has gone sideways over the last two years.

The Browns might have secured the No. 1 pick by going 1-15 last season, but if their fortunes turn in the next year or two, it will be due to the volume of their drafts just as much as Myles Garrett. They’ve drafted 36 players over the last three years and have 12 picks next year. Losing gets a team higher draft picks, not additional picks.

With injuries a fact of life in the NFL, tanking is a lot riskier than it is in the NBA.

Polian might just be a little paranoid.