Derek Carr is, at the moment, the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL after signing a five-year, $125 million contract extension Thursday.
That’s a lot of money for a quarterback who hasn’t won, or even played in, a postseason game. So where does Carr rank on the list of quarterbacks still looking for their first playoff win?
These guys all are franchise quarterbacks who have a decent shot of taking themselves off this list in 2017.
No. 5: Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott was the 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year after throwing 23 touchdown passes and four interceptions. The fourth-round draft pick led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record, but he can’t yet boast a playoff victory because he was one-upped by last-second magician Aaron Rodgers.
Prescott engineered a game-tying drive in the final two minutes of the Cowboys’ divisional-round game against the Packers, but left Rodgers 35 seconds. Rodgers added to the pantheon of Packers history with his 36-yard sideline completion to Jared Cook, and Mason Crosby eliminated the Cowboys with a 51-yard field goal.
An argument can be made that Prescott should be higher on this list after the rookie year he had, but the kid has to earn it. Better yet, he could earn his way off this list.
No. 4: Kirk Cousins
Perhaps Kirk Cousins’ presence on this list is one of the reasons why the Redskins haven’t committed to him for more than one year at a time.
Like Dak Prescott, Cousins was a fourth-round draft pick, and he compressed the production of Prescott’s rookie year into the last 10 games of the 2015 season, throwing 23 touchdown passes and three interceptions as the Redskins went 7-3 during that stretch and made the playoffs. Cousins was sacked six times in his only playoff game and the Packers topped the Redskins 35-18 in a wild-card game at Washington.
Last season, Cousins had a chance to get the Redskins into the playoffs for the second straight year, but threw two second-half interceptions against a visiting Giants team that already had its playoff spot wrapped up and had nothing to play for in Week 17. The Redskins lost 19-10.
Cousins has thrown 54 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions since becoming the Redskins’ full-time starter in 2015. He’s also thrown for 9,083 yards, but he’s in the same division as Prescott and Carson Wentz. He’ll have to keep getting better to avoid being overshadowed by those guys in the future, assuming he remains in the division.
No. 3: Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton isn’t as flashy as Kirk Cousins and he’s been awful in his four playoff games with one touchdown pass and six interceptions.
However, Dalton led the Bengals to the playoffs four straight times and pretty much got them there in 2015 even though a fractured thumb ended his season in Week 14. Dalton has made a statistical leap over the last two seasons. He never threw fewer than 13 interceptions in any of his first four seasons, but threw just seven in 13 games in 2015 and eight last season. He’s kept his interception percentage under 2.0 in each of the last two seasons and is at 2.6 in his career while Cousins sits at 2.7.
Dalton is 56-35-2 in his career as a starter. Cousins is 19-21-1. Even Cousins’ 17-14 record over the last two seasons doesn’t compare to Dalton’s body of work.
Since becoming a regular starter, Cousins made the playoffs only when the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles all had losing records. Dalton, meanwhile, helped the Bengals get to the playoffs in five straight seasons playing in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens.
No. 2: Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford is 0-3 in playoff games, but unlike Andy Dalton he’s been serviceable in the postseason. He’s thrown four touchdown passes and three interceptions in the playoffs. He completed 18 of 32 passes in last season’s wild-card loss at Seattle while playing with a dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand.
Stafford became just the fifth quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards in a season while winning the league’s Comeback Player of the Year award in 2011. He’s thrown for at least 4,000 yards every year since then and ranked in the top 10 in the league every year in that category. He’s taking better care of the ball, throwing 35 interceptions over the last three seasons. The three seasons before that, he threw 52 interceptions.
The Lions lost their last three regular-season games and had to hit the road for the playoffs in 2016. Were it not for Stafford’s finger injury, the Lions would have been a tougher out. With or without injured left tackle Taylor Decker, if Stafford gets a big extension before the season, it should be looked at as an advance payment for the franchise’s first playoff win since 1991.
No. 1: Derek Carr
Even though Matthew Stafford could surpass Carr in the salary race this summer depending on how negotiations go with the Lions, Carr has proven in just three seasons that he’s the best quarterback in the NFL who hasn’t won a playoff game.
The Raiders drafted Carr in the second round in 2014 and have improved every year since. Carr threw 28 touchdown passes and six interceptions last season, but broke his leg in Week 16. The Raiders lost in Week 17 at Denver and dropped from a first-round playoff bye to the fifth seed and lost at Houston in the wild-card round.
Had Carr remained healthy, he might not even be on this list.
Carr hasn’t been afflicted with the early-career interception bug as much as Stafford and Dalton were in their careers. Carr threw 21 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions in his rookie season as the Raiders went 3-13. Carr and the Raiders improved to 7-9 in 2015 as the quarterback threw 32 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions.
Stafford, meanwhile, has thrown more than 15 interceptions four times and Dalton has done it three times.
Carr has thrown 81 touchdown passes in his first three seasons and his career interception percentage of 1.8 is tied for second all-time with Tom Brady.
Not bad for a guy who was drafted after Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel.
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