It’s probably safe to assume that NFL owners are familiar with a calculator. It’s something they can use to see how much money they have to roll around in.
Perhaps some of them should have used a calculator when they voted to reduce overtime to 10 minutes.
Guess the average duration of overtime in 2016?
Ten minutes and one second.
According to Pro Football Reference, 13 NFL games went to overtime in 2016. Based on the time of the winning score (if there was one) in each game, these overtime sessions lasted an average of 10:01.
This is supposedly a player-safety move, designed to prevent teams playing Thursday games from playing 15 extra minutes four days before. Just because 10 minutes is now the limit, it doesn’t mean that the length of overtime will be significantly reduced. Overtime could turn into pre-shot clock college basketball, with teams working the clock to set themselves up for a field goal and leaving their opponent little time, if any, to answer.
So maybe the new rule reduces the average length of overtime by a minute or two. That’s not enough of a safety improvement to make it worth the inevitable increase in tie games.
There is evidence that it’s harder to win on Thursday after playing overtime on Sunday. Two teams, the Dolphins in Week 3 and the Buccaneers in Week 9, played on Thursday after overtime games on Sunday in 2016. Both lost by 15 points. The average length of those two overtime sessions was 9:54.
Sure, this is a small sample size, but it suggests this new rule won’t even level the playing field on Thursdays if one team is coming off overtime.
Shorter overtimes won’t make Thursday Night Football any better or noticeably decrease concussions, but they’ll increase the number of games where fans of both teams are left unhappy.
More ties, just what dad needs for Christmas.
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