The 149th edition of the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 6, from Churchill Downs in Lousiville, Kentucky. One handicapper preparing for the event is Jody Demling, who has held a ticket with the winning Derby horses in 10 of the last 14 races. Let’s take a look at Jody Demling’s expert picks and analysis for the race.
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Jody Demling Kentucky Derby 2023 Picks & Predictions
The favorite to win the Kentucky Derby is Forte (+325), who has won six of his seven starts, including five straight. However, Demling will be fading Forte on Saturday. Looking to beat out Forte is Tapit Trice (+600), Angel of Empire (+800), and Practical Move (+1000). Who is Demling including on his betting tickets?
Derma Sotogake (+1200)
Demling is “extremely high” on Derma Sotogake (+1200), the Japan-bred horse looking to become the first of its kind to win the Kentucky Derby. With a win on Saturday, Derma Sotogake would become the first international horse to win the Derby since Sunny’s Halo in 1983. On the back of Derma Sotogake will be Christophe Lemaire, who will be riding in his second Derby.
Derma Sotogake is coming off a $1 million win in UAE Derby at the Dubai World Cup this past March. However, the colt has never raced on American soil, and the Derby will be its first chance. Derma Sotogake will look to become the first horse to win out of post position No. 17.
Two Phil’s (+2000)
For one of the horses outside of the top eight, Demling is pulling for Two Phil’s (+2000) out of Gate No. 3. Two Phil’s saw one of the biggest changes to his odds in the entire field. After the post position draw, Two Phil’s went from +2500 to +2000 via BetOnline. Bred and owned by Phillip Sagan, Two Phil’s will have Jareth Loveberry on his back. Loveberry will look to carry over his hot streak in 2022 when he made over $5 million in winnings.
In 2023, Two Phil’s finished second, third, and first in three starts. The win came in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Gr. 3) at Turfway Park in March 2023. Two Phils’s has already won $683,450 in eight starts. Two Phil’s will look to continue its impressive career with a win at the Kentucky Derby.
Fade Forte (+325)
In a surprise decision, Demling will be fading Forte (+325), the current favorite to win the race. Demling believes the quality of competition in Forte’s races is a red flag. Forte’s win at the Florida Derby was impressive, but only one other horse in the field of 12 previously won a graded-stakes competition.
Forte has won five straight races, resulting in his 3 to 1 odds. However, the Kentucky Derby will be the toughest field Forte has ever faced, which is why Demling “sees value elsewhere.” Forte has the talent to win and put on a strong showing, but Demling is siding with other horses.
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