One of the uniquely difficult things about seeking out the “Best Player Available” on Draft Day One is the actual uncertainty of knowing for sure if the player you select is the “best available FIT” for your team now and into the window of a 5-year future.
For example, every metric used by the Eagles in the 1995 Draft had them convinced that Boston College defensive end/OLB Mike Mamula was the absolute best player available as the 7th overall pick. His game tape was off the charts and his Combine measurables were superb. He actually turned into a decent rotational player for the Birds, but did not live up to the expectations we all had that he would dominate at the NFL level.
What further complicates the BPA decision is that nearly all of the guys you’re looking at in Round 1 are great athletes in their own right with only minor degrees of separation. For example, Mamula was and probably still is the greatest high school athlete ever produced by his hometown— Lackawanna, New York. In high school he was All-Western New York and all-state in football. He was captain of the football, basketball and track teams. He was the school’s MVP in not only football but also basketball and track.
Then you have to weigh the character issues. In Mamula’s case, that was easy—he was a great student who actually graduated on time and earned a degree in sociology at Boston College. His personality was affable and exuded natural leadership traits.
In other words, it made all the logical sense in the world for the Eagles to deem Mamula the BPA at the 7th overall pick in 1995. It was a safe pick.
Now just a theoretical challenge here, but what if you could turn back the hands of time and you had today’s prospect Joe Mixon from Oklahoma and yesterday’s Mike Mamula sitting there together and you’re on the 1st Round clock?
You’d probably still pick Mamula, even though according to a poll done by Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, one of 16 NFL executives asked to name the best prospect in the class said it is Mixon.
Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk tallied the other results:
Myles Garrett was chosen by 11 of the 16 executives, while two named LSU safety Jamal Adams and one each named Alabama linebacker Reuben Foster, Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas and Mixon.
To his credit, Mixon has worked hard to clean up his image and settled the civil suit over his off-field incident recently, as reported by Chris Roling. But that doesn’t make his problems or red flags disappear. How his interviews with NFL teams went behind closed doors is hard to say, though it might play into an executive claiming he’s the best player in the class (being anonymous helps too).
“Maybe Mixon is the best player in the class. But the team willing to take the risk wherever it happens faces the same PR hit regardless and the flashy gamble might not work out.”—Chris Roling
I think it was the late Wellington Mara as co-owner of the New York Giants who once said “we are not in the business of well-adjusted personalities”… I understand his point…you’re trying to win football games.
But it would still be difficult for me to look at Mixon and Mamula both there at #7 or #14 and hand in the card on Mixon. And just like the Eagles in 1995, there would be a 50% chance that I was picking the wrong guy anyway.
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