The “Swing for the Fences” Pick

The draft is about a month away and there isn’t really much clarity in regards to the direction the Wolves will go with the 5th pick. This draft isn’t considered to be very strong at the top so the Wolves have to cast a wide net to make the right pick. One option in a draft with lesser talent is to take a player with some risk, but high potential. Marquese Chriss is one of the highest variance players in this draft, and he could be the just right pick for the Wolves.

SCOUTING REPORT

The image above is his DraftExpress mock draft positioning over the last year to show his sudden rise into lottery pick range. Chriss is coming off a freshman year at University of Washington where he averaged about 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks. He has only been playing competitive basketball for a few years, and his growth in one year at the college level shows how much potential he has. At the combine he measured in at 6’ 10” with a 7’ 0.25” wing span, and a 38.5” max vertical, the best for anyone who measured in 6’10” and up. Part of the reason he is flying up draft boards can be attributed to his combine measurements, When he came into college his position in the NBA wasn’t quite clear, but his measurements are right in line with the modern day NBA power forward.

What he brings to the table

Great quickness, can blow by defenders in limited space. Projects as a decent shooter, very natural form on his shot. Good offensive rebounder, put-back dunk machine. He is a decent ball handler for a big man. An absolute terror in transition, could be a regular on the nightly top 10. If taught correctly should be a capable perimeter defender when asked to switch onto guards. Solid shot blocker, comes out of seemingly nowhere to spike balls into the third row.

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What he needs to work on

Offensively, the one thing he needs to improve the most is his passing. His first instinct when he has the ball is to look to score. The modern NBA will require him to look to move the ball as part of an offensive system. On the defensive side he has a little more work to put in. Defensive rebounding is a very important thing in the run-and-gun NBA because most fast breaks start with a defensive rebound. Chriss can get to most rebounds with his leaping ability, but he needs to make boxing out a priority to stop his guy from beating him there. Another thing he’ll need to fix is his fouling problem. He averaged over 4 fouls per game in college, which is pretty crazy given the fact that 5 is the number to foul out in college. Fouling is often a product of lazy defense and he’ll need to focus on defensive fundamentals (slide feet, don’t reach etc.) to stay on the floor.

WHY THE WOLVES SHOULD TAKE HIM

The Wolves have 3 clear starters in Rubio (at point), Towns (at center), and Wiggins (small forward). Lavine showed a lot at the end of the season last year, and if the Wolves take someone like Hield or Murray there is going to be a crunch for minutes at the shooting guard slot. So while the Wolves don’t have a clear, definitive option to start at shooting guard, Lavine showed enough that finding a new shooting guard isn’t something they need to force.

There is however, a much more glaring need at the power forward slot where the current options are: Gorgui Dieng (really a center), and Nemanja Bjelica who disappointed in his first season in the league and is closer to 30 than 25. At the 5th spot in this draft the Wolves will likely have missed out on three guys that may play power forward in Ben Simmons, Dragan Bender, and Brandon Ingram. After those guys there is a morass of prospects where there isn’t much difference between the number 5 ranked guy and the number 15 ranked guy. In that range of players there are a number of options at power forward: Deyonta Davis, Skal Labissiere, Henry Ellenson and Chriss. Davis will be a solid rebounder and interior defender in the league, but won’t bring the shooting range and transition play that Chriss will. Skal came into his freshman year as a presumptive top-3 pick but after a year at Kentucky that had him coming off the bench for a chunk of the season he has slid to the bottom of the lottery. He will not be able to bring the scoring chops or shooting range that Chriss will. Ellenson is the other guy in this group who can bring shooting at the power forward position, and he’ll be a better defensive rebounder than Chriss. But Chriss will be a better transition player, he has better defensive tools and will be a better pick-and-roll rim-running big.

Chriss is a guy that needs to go to the right situation. The Wolves could be that “right situation” for him. They’ve got the right coach to work on his weaknesses. Thibs will be able to instill defensive principles and teach him to play with discipline. Towns is the perfect center to mask his weaknesses. Towns can guard bigger post threats and is a good enough defensive rebounder that the Wolves should be respectable protecting the glass. Offensively he would fit in great. The Wolves obviously need more shooting across the roster and he will be able to bring that. The Wolves could be one of the best transition teams in the league with Rubio, Lavine, Wiggins and Chriss. Chriss and Towns both being bigs that can stretch out will be a nightmare to guard for the opposing team. If his shot develops to become a serious weapon he should be a great pick-and-roll partner for both Rubio and Wiggins.

The Wolves are one of the most exciting teams in the league. With Towns and Wiggins on the roster some might think the draft strategy should be to go with a “safe” pick, someone that can come in and contribute right away. The problem with that strategy in this draft is that the safer picks might not be starter-caliber players. The Wolves are exciting, but they still need to fill a lot of needs. Someone as versatile as Chriss could be an absolute steal if they are able to develop him properly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVdSqMQr-5k