Name: Anthony Smith
Opponent: Alexander Rakic
Odds: +265 (bet $100 to win $265)
It’s not everyday you get a higher ranked fighter in a main event betting off at 2.5-to-1 or better, but here we are.
Undoubtedly, the most recent loss from Smith is part of what is driving the odds here. He had his teeth beaten out of him (quite literally) by Glover Teixeira and didn’t show much offense at all. That dropped him to 3-2 in his last five, which isn’t much to write home about. With that being said, the other loss was to Jon Jones and the wins were all performance of the night finishes against ranked opponents, including one over Volkan Oezdemir.
And that’s where the writing off of Smith seems particularly odd. Sure, MMA math is not flawless, but his submission win over Oezdemir seems pretty relevant when you consider Rakic just lost a lackluster split to the very same opponent. Rakic doesn’t seem to have a dominant wrestling/submission game like Glover.
The pick here really comes down to whether you trust the more experienced guy who’s taken some punches or the younger, less-proven guy. While this plays like a coin flip, you have to like the numbers next to Smith’s name.
2020 Record: 10–13
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): $377
Return on Investment: 16%
2018-19 Record: 31-47 (+1.5%)
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