Name: Andrei Arlovski
Opponent: Tom Aspinall
Odds: +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
The last time Andrei Arlovski was a favorite in a fight was September 5th of 2015 when he fought Frank Mir. While he doesn’t have the sleekest of records since then, he is 3-1 in his last four. In that span, the thing he has done best is change his approach into a safer fighter who avoids the big blow. This has been particularly successful against younger fighters who have a history of winning mostly by KO quickly.
Enter Tom Aspinall, who has picked up all of his wins in 1:35 or less. Also, he just happens to be 0-2 in fights that last longer than two minutes. Although his skill set is clearly impressive and he has big power, Arlovski is the perfect test to force him into a different, less comfortable style of fight.
Seeing Arlovski handle both Philipe Lins and Tanner Boser in that same way gives me a lot of confidence, particularly at this price.
2021 Record: 0-4 (1 withdrawal)
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): -($400)
Return on Investment: -100%
2018-20 Record: 45-72 (+1.1%)
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