The lines have been set for the NBA season. Listed in order below, the following win-loss projections (Westgate LV, Nylon Calculus, and Bovada.lv) were averaged to provide an over-under for each of the 30 franchises. WARNING: To protect yourself from these hot takes, goggles and gloves are highly recommended.
EAST
- Cleveland (57-25) 56.5, 55, 56.5 (56)
- Boston (48-34) 51.5, 51, 52.5 (51.7)
- Toronto (56-26) 49.5, 52, 50.5 (50.7)
- Detroit (44-38) 45.5, 41, 45.5 (44)
- Indiana (45-37) 43.5, 43, 44.5 (43.7)
- Atlanta Hawks (48-34) 43.5, 43, 43.5 (43.3)
- Charlotte (48-34) 39.5, 45, 42.5 (42.3)
- Washington (41-41) 42.5, 41, 42.5 (42)
Cleveland, Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Indiana, and Charlotte are probably all safe bets to make the playoffs again this year; and given that Washington somehow managed to string together 40 wins during an injury-riddled campaign in 2015-16, it’s hard to convince yourself that another team is more likely to sneak into the top eight than them–especially after the Wizards added a legitimate rim-protecting center in Ian Mahinmi over the offseason.
OVER: Charlotte Hornets (45)
UNDER: Toronto (50)
9. New York (32-50) 38.5, 37, 38.5 (38)
None of the three oddsmakers tabbed the Knicks for 40 wins this season, and an average of 38 wins is a pretty reasonable improvement from 2015-16. If injuries strike some of the projected playoff teams badly and the Knicks can creep into 40-plus-win territory, their chances of a playoff berth increase immensely.
10. Chicago (42-40) 38.5, 35, 38.5 (37.3)
Given the optimism I was able to muster up for New York, you’d think I’m capable of doing the same for Chicago. Here’s the thing though: I can’t. And I won’t. Even though Dwyane Wade is making threes right now (and against Charlotte in the playoffs last year), I don’t see this lasting. If it does that’d be great, because Wade is certainly at the point in his career where a little reinvention and adaptation in that area simply couldn’t hurt. The reality is that the Bulls need Nikola Mirotic to steal some of “Steph’s Secret Stuff” to become an enjoyable watch on anything close to a regular basis.
11. Orlando (35-47) 36.5, 36, 37.5 (36.7)
Sorting out the Magic roster into cohesive on-court units that win games feels like the equivalent to having half of the pieces for two separate puzzles and being expected to produce something that’s not an eye sore. Everywhere you look there are problems with fit or a lack of minutes to go around. Still, if there’s anyone that can the job done here, it’s Frank Vogel. At the very least, they’ll play tough defense.
12. Milwaukee (33-49) 39.5, 34, 34.5 (36)
The loss of Kris Middleton was the kiss of death for both Milwaukee’s offensive spacing and their playoff hopes in 2016-17, at least as far as I’m concerned.
13. Miami (48-34) 36.5, 36, 34.5 (35.6)
With Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh no longer leading the organization, a step back was a near certainty. But now that Josh Richardson is set to miss time, the Heat falling feels like a foregone conclusion.
14. Philadelphia (10-72) 27.5, 26, X (26.8)
We all know that wins don’t define the 76ers: it’s all about The Process. The Sixers have been removed from many betting lines due to questions surrounding the timetable of rookie Ben Simmons, who could end up missing the entire season. If Philly sniffs 30 wins, that’ll easily be the biggest improvement in the NBA. Should that happen, they could be building something serious much quicker than expected despite a jammed up frontcourt. With that being said, I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they surpass 25.
15. Brooklyn (21-61) 20.5, 27, 20.5 (22.7) How many Jeremy Lin fans will want be locked up if I say under? In all seriousness, I could see the Nets winning 23 games or more for the simple fact that Lin is running the show. He’ll likely be a man on a mission, as he wants to prove himself as a worthy starting point guard in a league with an ever-growing stock of talent at the position.
OVER: Brooklyn (22)
UNDER: Milwaukee (36)
WEST
- Golden State (73-9) 66.5, 72, 66.5 (68.3)
- San Antonio (67-15) 56.5, 58, 58.5 (57.7)
- L.A. Clippers (53-29) 53.5, 53, 53.5 (53.3)
- Utah (40-42) 47.5, 46, 49 (47.5)
- Portland (44-38) 46.5, 44, 45.5 (45.3)
- Houston (41-41) 41.5, 48, 44 (44.5)
- Oklahoma City (55-27) 45.5, 43, 43.5 (44.2)
- Memphis (42-40) 43.5, 39 (41.7)
I happen to agree that the Spurs, Clippers, and Jazz will nab home-court advantage in the West, but after that it’s anyone’s guess as to what unfolds. Portland seems like the most obvious playoff team in the 5-8 range. Houston might be an offensive juggernaut and defensive disaster under Mike D’Antoni, Memphis is waiting for Chandler Parsons to get healthy. Meanwhile, OKC is one of the most unpredictable teams in basketball heading into 2016-17.
OVER: Utah (47)
UNDER: Houston (45)
9. Dallas (42-40) 39.5, 41, 38.5 (39.7)
The Mavs could conceivably sneak in with former Warriors Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes joining the roster to replace Chandler Parsons and Zaza Pachulia. For as long as Dirk Nowitzki is able to amble up and down the floor hoisting shots, Dallas is guaranteed a shot at the postseason. But unless Barnes can take his game to a new level and Bogut can stay healthy, the road will be rough.
10. Minnesota (29-53) 41.5, 30, 40.5 (37.3)
A projected eight-game improvement from last year should be celebrated if it comes to fruition. The sky really is the limit though.
11. New Orleans (30-52) 36.5, 37, 37 (36.8)
In an effort to avoid burning myself out, I’ve been consuming preseason hoops in small doses on an infrequent basis so admittedly this is a small sample size observation. However, during the Pelicans-Rockets game in Shanghai, New Orleans looked like a completely new team. A rare blend of gritty, unselfish players and a budding rookie guard give Anthony Davis a shot at reaching the playoffs in 2016-17–especially when the resilient Lauren Holiday returns to full strength.
12. Denver (33-49) 34.5, 35, 37 (35.5)
Denver’s depth is reminiscent of its recent 50-win team featuring Andre Iguodala, but this group is considerably less experienced overall. Here’s to hoping Gary Harris gets healthy soon, and that Wilson Chandler charges up the bench unit.
13. Sacramento (33-49) 32.5, 35, 34 (33.8)
Another day, another trip to the lottery.
14. Phoenix (23-59) 26.5, 24, 30 (26.8)
With any luck from the injury gods, Phoenix is likely to soar above 30 wins. If P.J. Tucker were healthy to start the year, I’d take the over on this all day. The Suns were ravaged by injuries last year and added veteran 3-and-D glue-guy Jared Dudley, plus Devin Booker has been lighting up everyone in sight lately.
15. L.A. Lakers (17-65) 24.5, 22, 24.5 (23.7)
Something about the son of Bill Walton has me thinking over. But in a talented Western Conference with plenty of wildcards, a six or seven game improvement in the win column is already impressive.
OVER: New Orleans (36)
UNDER: Sacramento (34)
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