Too bad for Philly phans how the Eagles laid an egg against Minnesota—- because if they had prevailed there this past Sunday, we wouldn't need to have this exact conversation. Had we gone to 9-5 with Dallas losing to go 7-7, it would make the upcoming game between the Eagles and the Bears (both at 8-6) a whole lot less dramatic.
Dallas will probably win this coming Sunday against the Redskins, which means they will go back home to JerryWorld with an 8-7 record…and with the Eagles coming in at either 8-7 or 9-6, the winner of that final regular season game in Dallas will be crowned NFC East champ… There's no getting around it now, it all comes down to a holiday weekend in Dallas, and that's because the Cowboys hold the season tie-breaker edge over the Eagles if both should finish with identical W-L records.
So if the Eagles (if they beat the Bears to go to 9-6) would lose to Dallas (8-7) on that final Sunday in December, even if they both did finish at 9-7, the Cowboys with an identical record would win the Division.
That's why, assuming the Cowboys beat the Redskins this coming Sunday, the Eagles must keep pace by beating the Bears in Philly. That win is necessary to set up a meaningful game the following Sunday in Dallas, assuming Dallas beats the Redskins.
Should Dallas lose to the Redskins this coming Sunday to fall to 7-8, then the Eagles could clinch the Division title by beating the Bears and elevating their record to 9-6. But I see the likelihood of Dallas losing to the 'Skins as very slim.
I know it sounds complicated, or maybe it's just my own mind that needs to have pictures drawn for it to understand the playoff implications at hand…I'm just thrilled that the 2013 Eagles are even in the playoff conversation.
Our old friend Sheil Kapadia who's now with Birds 24/7 at Philly Magazine (www.phillymag.com) broke the whole picture down for us yesterday:
"What does the Eagles’ loss to the Vikings and the Cowboys’ loss to the Packers mean for the Birds’ playoff chances?
"Let’s take a look at all four scenarios that could play out next week."
Week 17 would be for the division. The Eagles would enter the finale with a one-game lead, but the Cowboys own the tiebreaker. If both teams were to finish at 9-7 here, Dallas would get in.
2. Cowboys lose to Redskins; Eagles lose to Bears.
This is pretty much the same as the first scenario. Week 17 would be for the division. The only difference would be that the division winner could be 8-8 if Dallas were to prevail against the Eagles….
3. Cowboys beat Redskins; Eagles lose to Bears.
This is why Dallas’ loss to the Packers was so big. Even in this scenario, Week 17 is for the division. Both teams would enter that game with 8-7 records.
Chip Kelly will have a decision to make if the Cowboys win the early game (1 p.m.). If that happens, the division still comes down to Week 17 regardless of what happens with the Eagles-Bears game.
4. Cowboys lose to Redskins; Eagles beat Bears.
This is the best-case scenario for the Eagles. If Dallas loses to Washington Sunday afternoon, the Eagles will go into the Sunday night game knowing they can clinch the division with a victory. Under this scenario, if the Eagles were to beat Chicago, Week 17 in Dallas would be meaningless.
What about the wild card?
This is no longer a factor. The Eagles cannot earn a wild-card bid. The Panthers and 49ers both have 10 wins. If the Eagles get to 10 wins, they’ll win the division. If they finish with less than 10 wins, the Panthers/Saints and 49ers would be ahead of them anyway for the wild card.
What about the No. 2 seed?
This too is no longer a possibility. The Saints and Panthers both have 10 wins, and they still have to play each other once. The Eagles cannot get to 11 wins regardless, so there will be no chance of a first-round bye.
Okay, there's your calculus lesson for today. Thanks to Sheil for breaking it down so that even I could understand it.
One thing that becomes clear for me— the Eagles' best chance of qualifying for the 2013 Playoffs is just to go out there and beat the Bears and the Cowboys in succession. I know, easier said than done… and life is seldom that simple. But we knew all along it would come to a showdown with Dallas in the final regular season game. Might as well beat the Bears and go into Dallas with an extra bullet in the chamber…
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