What a season! The Cowboys (4-10 after their loss to the Jets) gift-wrap an early self-elimination for the Eagles (6-7) at Christmas time… but we have to unwrap a few other gifts on our own.
Here come the Cardinals (11-2) on Sunday night.
These late Sunday night games wreak havoc on the schedules of our loyal fans in the USA, Canada and Latin America (Brizorro!), but they’re even harder on our friends in England, France, Australia, Taiwan and New Zealand…
So if you’re still an Eagles believer for 2015, thanks for hanging on…
The AccuScore computer (also 6-7 in calling Eagles games this year) calls the Arizona Cardinals as a solid favorite with a 63 percent chance to beat the Philadelphia Eagles after 10,000 mainframe simulations. David Johnson is projected for 56 rushing yards and a 34% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD.
In the 37% of simulations where the Philadelphia Eagles win, Sam Bradford averages 1.08 TD passes vs 0.69 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.68 TD’s to 1.14 interceptions.
DeMarco Murray averages 86 rushing yards and 0.68 rushing TD’s when Philadelphia Eagles win, and 67 yards and 0.35 TD’s in losses. The Arizona Cardinals have a 43% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 74% of the time in those sims.
Blah blah blah, HAL… you’re getting less analytic and more picayune as the regular season winds down.
Last time I checked, this game is still about which team runs, blocks, tackles, kicks, throws, catches and covers better than the opponent (see Best of Brizer, Volume 1)…
The Eagles have a chance to upset the Cardinals and gain the inside track on the NFC East if they take advantage of every early opportunity to set the controlled aggression factor in the game and to sustain it. Somehow, some way, the Eagles have to take charge of the point of attack on both sides of the ball. I’m not saying it will be easy— just saying it’s essential to putting themselves in a position to win at the end.
A perfect game? No… but limit the emotional and mental mistakes enough to allow the physical effort to decide the game.
We have got to get pressure whether it’s coverage or rush (or both) on Carson Palmer, who may be 35 years old but he’s playing the best football of his life. He and Tom Brady are the only two quarterbacks in the league to throw for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdown passes so far in 2015, and his receiving corps of John Brown, Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald may be the most well-rounded group of targets in the NFL.
A big part of the Cardinals’ defensive success (4th in total yards allowed and 7th in points allowed) has been the play of the team’s secondary, particularly cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 25-year-old four-time Pro Bowl cornerback has been targeted just 55 times on the year, fewer than 61 other defensive backs in the league. And among those who have been targeted as many times as he has, he’s been beaten just 40.0 percent of the time, tied with Darrelle Revis of the Jets for the lowest rate in the NFL, according to Stats Inc. The Cardinals’ usual starter on the opposite side, Jerraud Powers, has missed the team’s last three games with a calf injury, and his status is up in the air against Philadelphia. If he can’t go, Justin Bethel will likely start in his place for the fourth time this year.
In their past four games, the Cardinals haven’t allowed an opponent to hit 100 yards on the ground a single time, giving up an average of just 76.0 yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry during that span. And on the year, they’ve allowed opponents to gain just 87.7 yards per game on the ground with eight total rushing touchdowns.
Eagles mindset has got to be— we will change that formula.
The Cardinals hold opposing quarterbacks to the sixth-lowest passer rating (77.3) when they blitz on passing plays and, through Week 14, the Eagles have been held to a 70.3 quarterback rating when blitzed, according to Stats Inc. We need a response to beat the blitz.
I relish this game’s inherent challenge. It’s a fantastic opportunity to say to the football world we have improved, and we belong among the toppermost of the poppermost.
Gonna have to play efficient and clean… Think a smooth shave like Brizer’s new electric shaver which he is going to find in his Christmas stocking.
Let’s do this… I’m tired of making excuses for this team.
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