Livest Dog at UFN Auckland: Daniel Kelly

Name: Daniel Kelly

Opponent: Derek Brunson

Odds: +245 (bet $100 to win $245)

This week we bring you another value play. While this is far from a slam dunk, it’s much closer to a 50/50 fight than the odds suggest. Derek Brunson is a fighter who loves to blitz and attempt to finish the fight early on – as is evident by the 12 1st round finishes on his record. However, that style plays fairly well into the hands of Kelly. In Kelly’s last fight with Rashad Evans, he showed above average footwork and a real sense for reading the pressure of opposing fighters. Brunson obviously represents a much bigger challenge in this regard, but Kelly has already shown signs of being able to stop it. If he does stay away from the big shots early, he puts himself in good position to take a decision later on.

BONUS: If you’re thinking about laying down on Kelly here, you can also hedge your bets by putting money on Brunson by TKO (currently getting numbers around +170) and Kelly by decision (+335). You can probably safely assume one of the two will happen and with some smart plays with money, you can assure a profit.