2016 WILD CARD GAMEDAY: Miami Dolphins

1:00pm
The House That Hines Built
TV: CBS
Radio: WDVE and other affiliates

The Steelers are making their third straight playoff appearance. It has been 7 years since the Steelers last reached the Super Bowl and this team started the season with incredibly high expectations. However, adversity struck in the form of a 4-game losing streak that sunk them below .500 at midseason. A win in Cleveland proved to be the elixir this team needed and they rattled off 7 straight wins to close out the season at 11-5 and win the AFC North for the second time in the last three years. The Miami Dolphins, whose only victory over a winning team this season came against the Steelers, come to town looking for their second playoff appearance since the NFL moved to an 8-division format in 2002. The Steelers may have aspirations of a deep playoff run but need to take things one week at a time and take care of business. There is no more margin for error. The first step in the journey has been achieved. We are in the dance. Now we have to go out an execute.

What To Watch For

1. The Weather

In case you haven’t heard, it’s going to be cold on Sunday. Really, really cold. The forecast calls for the weather to be 15 degrees with a wind chill of 0 at kickoff. This would make it the 4th coldest game in Steelers history and the coldest at Heinz Field other than the 2004 AFC Championship Game against New England that was 11 degrees at kickoff. The Dolphins have not played in below-freezing temperatures since their 2013 visit to Pittsburgh and have only played in temperatures below 20 degrees once since 1989.

2. Injury Replacements

The first meeting between these two teams was the perfect storm of injury situations. The Dolphins had all of their starters return on the offensive line while the Steelers were without Marcus Gilbert, Ryan Shazier, Markus Wheaton, and Bud Dupree. Ben Roethlisberger got hurt during the game and while he played all but one short drive, he was mostly ineffective. Lawrence Timmons lacerated his leg and had another pukefest which led to Tyler Matakevich playing 18 defensive snaps. This time around, the Steelers are mostly healthy. Stephon Tuitt will return along the defensive line and Ben, Gilbert, Shazier and Dupree are all fully healthy. Additionally, Artie Burns has taken over the starting cornerback role while Sean Davis has taken over at safety. In the first meeting, Davis played 0 defensive snaps and Burns was the nickel corner. This time around, it is the Dolphins who enter the game banged up. Starting QB Ryan Tannehill will miss his 4th straight game (though they don’t lose much with Matt Moore as the starter). The bigger news is up front where center Mike Pouncey is out for the year and backup Kraig Urbik (who was once a Steelers draft pick) is questionable with a knee injury. The Dolphins situation on defense is even more dire. They are without their two starting safeties Isa Abdul-Quddus and Reshad Jones (both of whom had interceptions of Ben in the first game). Backup safety Baccari Rambo is questionable and top corner Byron Maxwell is doubtful with an ankle injury. Maxwell shadowed Antonio Brown and frustrated him with his size and physicality all game in Miami and his loss might be the biggest.

3. Press vs Cushion

The Steelers and Dolphins have two distinctly different strategies on defense. Miami’s defensive coordinator Vance Joseph spent his last two years as the Bengals defensive backs coach. That means the Steelers can expect a similar defensive philosophy to what the Bengals throw at them. The Dolphins will press with their outside corners and will generally hang two safeties high in order not to get beat over the top. Against Cincinnati, the Steelers have been able to run the ball because they do not stack the box against the run. This has been true of the Dolphins this year as they have the 30th-ranked run defense. The Steelers should be able to exploit the middle of the field and if the Dolphins don’t track receivers, the Steelers could get some mismatches by moving Antonio Brown into the slot. On the other side, the Steelers play a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-2 defensive concepts and generally give cushions on the outside. The Dolphins exploited this in the first matchup with quick slants to Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Add in Kenny Stills and the Dolphins have three big-bodied receivers that are elusive and tough to bring down. Artie Burns has been consistently improving on the outside but this will be a tackling test for Burns and Cockrell.

4. Turnovers

Both teams are good at running the ball. The Dolphins have a terrible run defense and Jay Ajayi tore up the Steelers in the first meeting between these teams. One turnover could make a difference between these two ball-control offenses. The Dolphins are 7-1 in games where they win or tie the turnover battle while the Steelers are 8-3 when they win or tie the turnover battle. The Dolphins had 2 takeaways in the first meeting between these teams and a cold windy day could make for difficulties throwing the ball. The Dolphins offense has turned the ball over at least once in their last five games and in 7 of their last 8. Since taking over as a starter, Matt Moore has thrown an interception in each of the last three weeks. Since the bye, the Steelers have turned the ball over in just 5 of 9 games (but have at least one giveaway in 4 of their last 5). The Steelers defense has made the biggest strides and have generated at least one takeaway in 10 straight outings.

5. Blow Them Away

The Dolphins have been very good in close games this season. of their 10 wins, 8 came in one-score games. Only two of ther wins (their 15-point win over the Steelers and their 21-point win over the Jets) were by more than 7 points and only one of their losses was by fewer than 7 points. The Dolphins losses have mostly been blow outs while their wins have come in close games. Meanwhile, the Steelers have won 7 in a row with the last 4 wins all coming in 1-score games. The Steelers needed 4th quarter comebacks to beat the Bengals, Ravens and Browns and are battle-tested in close games. The best way for the Steelers to win is to jump out to an early lead and take the Dolphins running game out of play, like the gameplan they utilized in Buffalo at the beginning of December. Even though Jay Ajayi ran for 204 yards in the first meeting, the bulk of it came on two runs – a 20-yarder (that he got an extra 15 after because of a Mike Mitchell personal foul) and the 62-yarder that sealed the victory. With Sean Davis playing downhill from the safety spot and Ryan Shazier roaming the inside, this Steelers defense should have a lot more speed than they did in the first meeting and need to provide the offense with an opportunity to run up the score early and force Matt Moore to beat them.