Unless you were home schooled, you can probably recall how it felt attending the first day of school. New school supplies, perhaps new clothes and the hope of a fresh start and the chance to see your friends once again. It was a time were you felt a little apprehension having new classes and new teachers but generally speaking you looked forward to another school year. For parents, the kids were finally getting out of the house, enough said.
With NHL training camps opening this weekend and pre-season play starting soon thereafter you kind of have that ‘back to school’ moment for players, coaches and fans. Whether its the dreaded skating test Wild Head Coach Bruce Boudreau puts his players through, or trying to establish chemistry on limited pre-season shifts, the learning curve is probably pretty steep.
A few weeks ago I chatted with some Wild fans to gather their thoughts on the upcoming season, if you want to hear their takes click on the links below. Meanwhile I will share my thoughts on the upcoming season for each of the major personnel groups and as well as make some predictions.
Wild Fans Speak 2018-19: Part 1 of 3
Wild Fans Speak 2018-19: Part 2 of 3
Wild Fans Speak 2018-19: Part 3 of 3
Coaching
Shortly after the Wild replaced outgoing General Manager Chuck Fletcher with Paul Fenton he wasted little time making his first move in letting go of assistant coach (and best friend of Boudreau’s) John Anderson. Fenton replaced Anderson with friend and Milwaukee Admirals’ bench boss Dean Evason. Yet beyond that, the rest of the coaching staff remains unchanged with Evason joining Bob Woods, Darby Hendrickson, Bob Mason and video coach Jonas Plumb.
Most publications recognize that Bruce Boudreau is on the hot seat after two straight one-and-done first round playoff exits. I don’t think most Wild fans feel it would be Boudreau’s fault if this were to occur again but it seems like the logical possibility considering ownership’s decision to switch GM’s. So if the Wild make the playoffs for a 7th consecutive season only to be bounced in the 1st round like they have the last 3 years you can bet there will be a house cleaning here. So its to the 2nd round (at least) or bust for this coaching staff.
Forwards
The Minnesota Wild is returning most of the same core of forwards in its top 9. Leading goal scorer Eric Staal is in a contract year after netting 40+ goals for the first time in his career since 2008-09. One would think the 33-year old would be extremely motivated to do as well as he did a season ago with the chance for what will likely be his last big pay day of his career but he’ll be hard pressed to put up another 40+ goal effort.
The team re-signed fan favorite Jason Zucker to a 5-year contract where he hopes to repeat or improve on a 33-goal, 64-point campaign. But will he be as motivated now that he’s had his big payday? Mikael Granlund has two years remaining on his present deal and no doubt he’ll want another 20+ goal, nearly 70 point campaign to drive up his value. He has emerged as the Wild’s best playmaker and he has shown terrific chemistry on a line with Staal and Zucker. The Wild need this line to put up points on a nightly basis if Minnesota is going to have the firepower necessary to win games. Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise and Mikko Koivu are either too streaky or injury prone to be relied upon on a nightly basis. Parise was on a torrid scoring pace going into the playoffs before a broken sternum knocked him out. If he can pick up where he left off that will be a big boost to the club.
Minnesota must get bounce back years from Niederreiter and Coyle especially after his disappointing 11-goal, 37-point season. Fans appreciate Coyle’s goodwill gestures to young kids by giving away pucks before games, but they’re growing tired of waiting for a breakout season from the 26-year old. Coyle is usually a beast during pre-season play but then only teases you in the regular season. Minnesota is hoping off-season surgery to fix both of his wrists will mean a big improvement for the power forward. Niederreiter also had an injury-marred campaign last year, and certainly has the skill to improve on his 18 goals from a season ago.
Joel Eriksson Ek had an underwhelming season offensively with just 6 goals, but he earned a lot of praise for his play away from the puck as well being willing to throw his weight around on the forecheck. While his surprising physical play was a welcome addition, the team needs him to start burying his scoring opportunities more frequently otherwise its hard to see how he’ll ever get a chance to anchor one of top two lines in the future. Initially Boudreau seemed to indicate he wanted to give Eriksson Ek a chance to show what he could do with such an opportunity only to hint that he might be giving that carrot to Jordan Greenway instead as reported by the Athletic. Greenway played center at Boston University last year and has good playmaking skills. Either way, if Eriksson Ek or Greenway want to center the 2nd or 3rd line the message is clear they’re going to have to compete for it. Some fans have been arguing for a demotion of team captain Mikko Koivu to the 3rd line center for years. Will it finally happen this year as his offensive totals continue to diminish?
Marcus Foligno had a rocky first season after suffering a broken jaw in a fight with Chicago’s John Hayden early in the year. Eventually he settled into his role and started to play the rugged game the Wild hoped for when they traded for him. It is hoped he can help make the Wild a pain to play against as well as hold other teams accountable if they try to rough their smaller skill players. The team then signed a number of possible role players for the 4th line in veterans Matt Hendricks, Eric Fehr, Matt Read and J.T. Brown. These veterans were brought in to make the Wild tougher on the forecheck but there is little reason to believe it is an upgrade (if at all) over departed vets Matt Cullen and Daniel Winnik.
Luke Kunin, who has still not been cleared yet for contact after injuring his ACL late last season, will probably start the season in Iowa. Justin Kloos, Sam Anas and Kyle Rau all had solid seasons in Iowa last year and will hope to battle their way into the lineup.
Defense
Without a doubt the biggest question is the health of Ryan Suter. Suter insists he’s healthy, but that does not seem to be completely corroborated by the team. He broke his talus bone in his ankle late last season which is something people usually only break in high speed crashes, and after surgery and his recovery (which didn’t allow him to put any weight on it for nearly a month after the procedure) is hoping to be ready by the season opener on October 4th. Yet Suter insists he’s fine and has been aggressively rehabbing at the University of Wisconsin. If Suter’s back the Wild should have reasonable depth on the blueline.
If not, it will be sorely tested (no pun intended) as Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and new $30 million man Matthew Dumba try to absorb more minutes to make up for Suter’s absence. Spurgeon is arguably one of most underrated defenders in the league and is a big part of Wild’s ability to transition from defense to offense. Dumba had a breakout 51-point season and appeared to rounding out more of his game and will be looked to match or surpass his totals from a year ago. Brodin is unassuming but he helps round out a fairly mobile top 4. Nick Seeler seemed to grow up right in front of our eyes with a late-season call up and provided a refreshing dose of sandpaper to a mostly non-physical blueline. He’ll likely be paired with newcomer Greg Pateryn who is also supposed to supply a bigger, physical presence who also happens to be a right hand shot.
Selfless veteran Nate Prosser, along with a host of other younger defenseman like Ryan Murphy, Gustav Olofsson, Carson Soucy, Brennan Menell, Matt Bartkowski and Louie Belpedio will hope to make the club as a 7th or possibly an 8th defenseman. Each of that latter group brings different intangibles to the table. It should be noted that Olofsson is on a one-way deal so its tough to not see him as a natural favorite to make it out of this group but the competition in pre-season between them will be interesting.
Goaltending
Between the pipes, Devan Dubnyk will again be the workhorse for the Minnesota Wild. An interesting point that was brought up in the Wild preview on the Athletic was that Dubnyk’s expected save percentage was the worst among NHL starters and only above a handful of back up goaltenders who have played at least a 100 NHL games or more. Ouch. Either way, the Wild need Dubnyk to at least be ‘good’ in order to have a chance to win most nights. Even a slight dip in his performance, usually puts the club on a losing streak.
Part of keeping Dubnyk in top form is giving him periodic opportunities to rest, especially in back-to-backs and Alex Stalock did a reasonable job in that capacity. The former South St. Paul and Minnesota-Duluth star plays an athletic style and will probably be expected to make about 15-18 starts this season. He will be competing for the back up job with Andrew Hammond aka ‘the Hamburgler.’ Hammond, the former Bowling Green Falcon had improbable and impressive start to his NHL career in 2014-15 where he went 20-1, but he has mostly spent time in the American Hockey League since. So barring some epic collapse by Stalock, I think the back up gig is his to lose. Meanwhile, Kaapo Kahkonen will get his first taste of North American hockey battling for playing time in Iowa (most likely with Hammond).
Special Teams
The Wild power play finished a 2nd straight season with a power play unit that was over twenty percent effective, scoring at a 20.4% rate which was good for 17th in the NHL. While the percentage was reasonable, there is plenty of room for improvement. The team’s two big re-signings over the summer in Zucker and Dumba should play a prominent role with the Wild on the man advantage. Zucker got very little time on the power play but the Wild would be wise to change that as he is one of Minnesota’s most gifted finishers. At Wild training camp, the Wild have been using Mikael Granlund as their main set up man near the right faceoff circle which has normally been occupied by Mikko Koivu for what seems like forever.
The power play used to be John Anderson’s responsibility so it would seem likely as though it will be Dean Evason’s job now. At times the Wild power play was very lethal and then it goes through long stretches of futility, especially on the road. It would be nice if it would just be consistent. Suter’s injury status also possibly means someone will have to take on the role of quarterbacking the team’s power play if he’s not yet ready to go. Dumba or Spurgeon would be the likely candidates for that task.
As for the penalty kill, the Wild finished 13th in the NHL at 81.3%. Koivu is still one of the league’s best defensive forwards but one area of concern is the decline in his ability to win draws which can really be an important factor in killing penalties. New faceoff rules have not allowed him to cheat as much and he won his draws at 51.4% rate which is his lowest faceoff percentage in his entire career. Considering he’s often on the ice to take those draws in the Wild end, any slip in his win percentage likely means more shots and more pressure sustained by opponents on the power play.
Matt Hendricks is a veteran penalty killer but is also known as a player who can win his fair share of draws. But is that really deserved? Last year he won just 49.3% of his draws with the Winnipeg Jets, the 3rd lowest percentage of his career. Granlund, Zucker, Spurgeon, Suter, Brodin and Prosser often logged lots of time on the penalty kill. It would be nice to give some of the Wild’s skill players; especially their older players some rest, and special teams would be a great place to start.
Of course at the end of the day, Dubnyk needs to be the Wild’s best penalty killer. Dubnyk had a pedestrian .868% save percentage when Minnesota was short handed. That needs to be better if the Wild are to move up into a Top 10 or Top 5 penalty killing unit in the league.
Prediction & Final Thoughts
While the Wild get kudos for qualifying for the playoffs for six consecutive seasons it is obvious among fans and experts alike they have a hard time believing the club will be anything more than a 1st round exit, at best. Three seasons in a row of one-and-done performances will do that to you and since the last two have been derailed partially by injuries to some its high priced veterans you can understand the pessimism.
The Wild give their fans reasons to cheer most nights, but its impossible to ignore how many of the other contending clubs in the Central Division let alone the Western Conference added impact free agents or made big trades. Minnesota primarily ‘tweaked’ its 4th line and added a 3rd pairing defenseman. Does that really seem to be enough to hold their perennial 3rd place spot in the Central Division when you consider the moves like the St. Louis Blues made? I am skeptical the good times are going to continue in the State of Hockey with its current roster which continues to get older and older.
While the Wild’s cap space conundrum didn’t allow them to really be a contender to make a major splash in free agency many fans were disappointed the team didn’t make some trades. The truth is, the team fielded lots of offers but most of them were hoping to fleece newly minted GM Paul Fenton so he didn’t pull the trigger. Not yet at least.
Fenton has repeated many times that he wants to see this team play for himself before he makes judgments on what changes should be made. I think that is a logical approach, but how long will it take for him to come that realization is anyone’s guess. A half season? A season? Who knows. Perhaps the better question is, when Fenton feels as though he has a good grasp of this team, and its relative strengths and weaknesses, will he make the requisite moves to address it?
While some fans applauded the departure of Chuck Fletcher, if there was anything about him that you could rely on was that he was going to make moves. While many of those moves didn’t work out as he hoped they would, he never lacked the courage or the willingness to pull the trigger. That was what really set him apart from his predecessor Doug Risebrough whose preferred player acquisition route was patrolling the waiver wire. We won’t really get an idea of what Fenton is about until we see him start to make changes to shape the team in a way he feels it will be at its best.
I predict the Wild will come up a bit short this season, with about 90 points. The health of its veteran core will continue to dog this club when its trying to reach for the post-season. In an ever improving Western Conference, 90 points will be a little short of a wildcard spot. Even if they do manage to scratch and claw their way to a 7th consecutive post-season berth. I have serious doubts about this team advancing beyond the 1st round. No go-to scoring threat and a history of a disappearing offense usually spells quick doom in the playoffs. I welcome being proven wrong.
Where do you think the Wild will finish up this season? Tell us on Twitter @CreaseAndAssist or in the comment section below!
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