NL Manager of the Year: Craig Counsell (MIL)
Manager of the Year is always pretty simple to predict because the winner is mostly based on narratives rather than close and careful evaluation. The team’s performance, especially in comparison to expectations, is what typically determines the winner, even if it does not follow the performance of the actual manager. In the case of the National League award, Craig Counsell seems like the favorite. Given the lack of production from previous important players in Milwaukee, such as Jesus Aguilar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Travis Shaw, it was impressive to see the Brewers back in the postseason. They had to make a comeback late in the season, and Counsell led them despite losing top pitchers and possible MVP Christian Yelich for a late run.
Runners Up: Brian Snitker (ATL), Dave Martinez (WAS), Dave Roberts (LAD)
Brian Snitker and Dave Martinez both had to come from behind in order to make the playoffs, just like Counsell. Both teams dealt with some injuries as well. With Snitker, the Braves put up the 3rd best record in comparison to Pythagorean record, so they performed better in close games. However, neither put on as much of a September run as Counsell, so neither will hoist the award. Dave Roberts will obviously receive votes as the leader of the team with the best record in the National League. He has to push a lot of buttons to run a team with more players than playing time to give. The Dodgers were always expected to be in the position they ended up at the end of the season, however, so Dave Roberts will not be a popular 1st-place-vote.
AL Manager of the Year: Aaron Boone (NYY)
Aaron Boone’s 2018 ended with fan criticism, but his 2019 will likely end with winning an award. The American League’s Manager of the Year will go to the manager of the team that took home a win on over 100 days of the season. That is despite a former MVP missing nearly the entire season, the team’s Ace missing most of the season, the face of the franchise missing a couple months, among many other major injuries throughout the season. The Yankees were forced to put out lineups with players you neer would have expected to play for this team in April of that season. And despite that, and despite not as high of a Pythagorean record, the Yankees ended up with the 2nd best record in the American League in a strong division.
Runners Up: Kevin Cash (TBR), AJ Hinch (HOU), Rocco Baldelli (MIN)
Kevin Cash is the leader of another playoff squad that dealt with numerous injuries throughout the season. Given All-Star level players missed significant time and the Rays were not 100% expected to make the postseason entering 2019, Cash will likely get some sort of recognition to close out a great 2019 season. AJ Hinch and Rocco Baldelli will both also get some love from the BBWAA as 100 game winners (especially Baldelli, who outperformed expectations in his first season as manager), but neither dealt with in-season controversies like Boone.
NL Reliever of the Year: Kirby Yates (SDP)
It may not be as exciting as the MVP race, but this season’s Reliever of the Year race is just as close. Kirby Yates has the lead in fWAR and a slight lead in WARP over Josh Hader, but Hader takes the lead in WARP. Both pitchers have a similar xFIP, and Hader is actually the only of the 2 with a SIERA under 2.00. Statistically, both pitchers faced a similar strength of schedule. Considering Hader has nearly 15 more innings pitched, with several multi-inning appearances, this might seem like an easy call from the information previously listed.
On the other hand, Yates has an ERA and FIP over a full run lower than Hader’s. You could argue there is some home run luck involved, especially considering Hader pitches at Miller Park half the time, but Hader has nearly three times the Barrel rate of Yates, so clearly some of the difference is based on actual pitching performance. Yates also has a higher WPA, and even though his team was not in a postseason race, that should mean something for the Reliever of the Year award.
Runners Up: Josh Hader (MIL), Will Smith (SFG), Seth Lugo (NYM)
Hader’s ability to go more than one inning may eventually give him the award once announced, as it is close for reasons previously mentioned. But the home run problem seems like it should keep him out of 1st place in 2019. Outside of the top 2, there are a few other decent seasons out of the bullpen. It was a surprise to see Will Smith not be traded at the deadline, but it was understandably difficult for the Giants to give away a pitcher who had so much success this season. Smith has an ERA of 2.76, xFIP of 2.73, and WARP of 2.84. In 65 innings as a closer (with a WPA over 5!), the lefty should receive recognition for his career-year. Seth Lugo is a name flying under the radar, He actually has a similar profile as Hader. Both played for contending teams, both had pitched over 75 innings and had several multi-inning appearances, and both had ERAs within 0.1 of each other. However, Lugo was not as dominant at missing bats to convince voters he should win, especially if Hader won’t.
AL Reliever of the Year: Liam Hendriks (OAK)
Liam Hendriks appears to be the runaway favorite for this award. He has a 1.7 lead in fWAR over the other candidates. Not only has he appeared in nearly half of Oakland’s games, but he has several games with multiple innings. Not only does he have over 80 innings pitched (much more than any other Reliever of the Year candidate), but with 25 saves, many are high leverage.
His ERA is spectacularly low at 1.63, and that is not overperforming his FIP by very much. He may have lucked out by only giving up half a homer per 9 innings despite a league average Barrel%, but ultimately his profile is much better than any other American League relievers. This all comes against a tough schedule, the average team he has faced averages 4.99 runs per 9.
Runners Up: Taylor Rogers (MIN), Brandon Workman (BOS), Ken Giles (TOR)
Taylor Rogers had a great season. In 69 innings, he has a nearly 3 WPA, and a sub 3.00 ERA, FIP, xFIP, and DRA. While that is all productive, none of it compares very well to a pitcher like Hendriks. Brandon Workman, despite not holding down a steady role as Red Sox closer, does have a 1.88 ERA, close to Hendriks’. However, a BABIP nearly under the Mendoza line and a HR/FB under 3% shows that his run prevention may have not been completely controlled by his skill. Ken Giles is interesting because he dealt with an injury. However, he still got over 50 innings as Toronto’s closer and did a great job. He ended with a 1.8 fWAR, 1.6 WARP, and 2.4 bWAR. That is all good enough to receive votes, but not enough to convince anybody to side with him over Hendriks.
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