The Atlanta Hawks are riding a seven-game losing streak towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference. What is the source of their problem, and can they arrest their slide before it’s too late?
The Atlanta Hawks were flying high, winners of six straight games. At 9-2, they were tied with Cleveland atop the Eastern Conference. Recent wins against the Houston Rockets, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Chicago Bulls were evidence that this Atlanta Hawks team was seriously good.
The Hawks have since been grounded in a major way.
Monday night’s loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder dropped Atlanta to 10-12, the latest stop on a slide of seven straight losses. Only once in the last 12 games has Atlanta pulled out a win, a 96-85 victory in Indiana.
Their defeats haven’t all been competitive either, as the Hawks have lost by an average of 19 points per game during the losing streak. A five-point loss to the Warriors is countered by a 15-point loss to the Lakers. A back-to-back against the Pistons and Raptors saw Atlanta lose by a combined 80 points; Toronto set a franchise record for margin of victory in Saturday’s win over the Hawks.
After reaching the top of the Eastern Conference, Atlanta is now tied for 11th with the Orlando Magic. The Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, and Milwaukee Bucks all have a better net rating than the Hawks.
Those are the facts, the details of a horrific slide. But what is causing this sudden string of ineptitude? And can Atlanta right the ship and begin winning basketball games again?
The Source of the Problem
The headline should actually read “sources” of the problem, because there is no single cause for a team losing 11 of 12 games. But a few causes have combined to pull Atlanta from the catbird seat in the East.
One is the schedule, which has shifted from being in Atlanta’s favor to a hurdle that they cannot leap. Through the season’s first 11 games – where the Hawks went 9-2 – Atlanta played seven games at home compared to just four on the road. Those eleven games were also against just three teams that made the playoffs last year.
The pendulum then swung back the other way, as the Hawks’ recent schedule has been road-heavy. Eight of their 12 games during this slide have been on the road, including an 0-4 Western Conference road trip. Similarly, the quality of competition has increased, with six of those last 12 teams being ones that made last year’s playoffs.
But schedule alone is not the only factor; the Hawks beat the Bulls and Cavaliers on a back-to-back during their hot start. What else has contributed to their change in success?
Injuries have played their role as well. Paul Millsap missed three games with a hip injury, all losses. Meanwhile, backup centers Tiago Splitter and Mike Scott have combined for just three games played as they deal with lower body injuries as well.
These factors are both largely out of the team’s control. But the key area that has hurt them is their inability to hit shots. Ice-cold shooting has strangled their offense and pulled down a defense that has been at times brilliant.
Since November 18th, the beginning of the slide, Paul Millsap is shooting just 45 percent from the field, and has broken 50 percent just twice. His career average is 49.7 percent. Dennis Schröder hit 43 percent from long-range over the first half of the season, and has hit just 23 percent over the second half. Kent Bazemore’s slump has been since the start of the season, as he is shooting just 29 percent from three-point range for the year.
As a team Atlanta shot 44 percent from beyond the arc to start the season. In the last 12 games, that number has dropped to 29 percent. The Hawks simply cannot generate consistent makes from the three-point line, and that has dragged their offense down to 27th in the league.
Only twice during their hot start did they fail to score 100 points, and six times in eleven games they cracked 110. Since the turn, the Hawks have fallen short of triple digits in nine of 12 games, and not once reached 110. That includes scoring just 84 in the blowout loss to the Raptors and a mere 68 points against the Utah Jazz.
Can it Be Fixed?
The scheduling issues for the team will balance out, as they do for all teams. Only three of their next ten opponents are currently projected to make the playoffs, and the games are evenly split between home and away. In addition, there is only one back-to-back among the group.
Injuries are impossible to predict, but the Hawks just got Millsap back from his hip injury, and he is currently projected to start Wednesday night against Miami after playing 38 minutes with no complications in a tough battle against the Thunder on Monday night. Mike Scott is rehabbing in the D-League and should rejoin the team soon; Splitter is still expected to be out for weeks to come.
The shooting slump is something Atlanta will need to snap out of, and part of that is simple regression to the mean. 34 percent three-point shooters shouldn’t continue hitting just 23 percent of their shots; if they keep taking them, eventually they should go in. Schröder may have been shooting above his head in the early going, but players such as Bazemore and Kyle Korver will likely revert to career norms.
Coach Mike Budenholzer should be figuring out lineup and play-calling strategies to improve shooting, and he has proven to be skilled at doing just that. Dwight Howard is having a strong season inside, and using his pick-and-roll abilities opens up looks on the perimeter. Surround him with the right players and this Hawks offense should get some spark.
Ultimately, the Hawks are not as bad as they have looked over the last 12 games, and they are not as good as they looked over their first 11. The key for Atlanta is proving that they are closer to the team that knocked off Cleveland than the one who lost to the Phoenix Suns, the team that comfortably beat Houston and not the team that lost by 80 points in two nights.
The Hawks have the talent and the coaching to regain their place amidst the East’s best. But after their slide they have a lot of work to do on the court to climb past those teams that have passed them. Their wings clipped, the Hawks now begin the arduous task of learning anew how to fly.
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