It feels like every Monday the Big 12 is showcasing two top teams. So it’s another thrilling edition of Big Monday, where two of the Big 12’s top squads are set to clash in an epic showdown. Tonight we have the 22-5 Kandas Jayhawks visiting the 18-9 TCU Horned Frogs.
Big Monday College Basketball Pick for Monday, Feb. 20, 2023
Kansas @ TCU | ESPN | 8 pm est
| Bet | Kansas | TCU | Play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +110 | -134 |  |
| Point Spread | +2 | -2 | |
| Total Points | Over 151.5 | Under 151.5 | |
On Saturday, TCU and Kansas both dominated and picked up two conference wins. TCU cruised to a win by putting up 100 points and demolished Oklahoma State by 25 points. Meanwhile, Kansas delivered a 55-26 beatdown to Baylor in the second half, securing a resounding 16-point home win.
Mike Miles Jr. Shows Major Impact
Both teams are clearly trending upwards, but TCU’s recent success can be primarily attributed to the return of star Mike Miles Jr. after recovering from a hyperextended knee. As Mike Miles Jr. goes, so does this TCU squad. The Horned Frogs have a 5-1 record against the spread with a +12.8 average cover margin in the six games he’s played and finished. TCU plays with a different level of confidence when he is healthy and in the lineup.
In contrast, TCU has struggled with a 1-5 record ATS and a -5.3 average cover margin without Miles. The Horned Frogs are looking to sweep the season series against Kansas after their stunning blowout victory at Phog Allen Fieldhouse earlier in the season.
Jalen Wilson will need more help on the offensive end if Kansas hopes to compete with TCU tonight. In their last meeting, Wilson was the only one who had any success on the offensive end, contributing 30 of KU’s 60 points.
Kansas Thrives After Losing First Matchup
However, history favors Kansas in this situation. Head coach Bill Self has been outstanding in these types of games, with a 58-42-3 record against the spread and a +2.17 average cover margin since 2006, when the Jayhawks are avenging a same-season loss.
Despite the odds being in their favor, I’m giving the edge to TCU in this matchup.
The Horned Frogs will benefit from playing at home, while Kansas must travel 48 hours after their big win against Baylor. The quick turnaround also limits Self’s time to game plan, giving TCU an advantage heading into the game.
Currently, tickets on this game are right at 50-50, while the hold sees about 77% of the money on the Horned Frogs. TCU opened as one-point favs, and the line has gone back and forth from 1.5 to 2 since yesterday afternoon.
It’s shaping up to be a pro’s vs. joe’s type of game, and we like the Horned Frogs. We’re going to take the ML at
Pick: TCU Moneyline -134
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