Dave’s dreaded “tradeback theory” from Eagles Addict

The 12th annual MACH 10 Eagles Draft Challenge opens for business here on April 19th. You will have one week to come up with 10 names you think the Eagles will select in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Complicating the challenge is the very real possibility that Eagles GM Howie Roseman is going to do everything in his power to trade places with other teams. In the past we have seen him trade up the board—but this year it is just as likely he will trade back on the board to get a few extra picks.

Dave Stoessel at Eagles Addict warns us to prepare for the “tradeback”. In simplified terms, here is the basis of Dave’s theory: Chances are high that Howie Roseman will be looking to trade down from slot 32 in the 1st Round and acquire an extra pick or two. The Eagles currently have no 2nd or 3rd round slots to pick from.

In Dave’s world, this is how it would go:

“Much will depend on how far down the Eagles are willing to go. If they only move a few slots back, say to the 33 – 40 range, they’ll likely net a second- rounder and a fourth-rounder. If they trade back to 41 and lower, that should be getting into the territory of netting a third-rounder and a fourth-rounder.

“The Eagles currently have two fourth round picks, so if they end up picking up another one, it’s possible that they could package an early fourth with a late fourth and get into the third round that way. Otherwise, I’m thinking they’ll be willing to trade down far enough to net a third-rounder.”

Got that?

“If that’s the case, the Giants, 49ers, Chiefs, Panthers, Texans, Bills, Broncos, Bengals and Cardinals all have (at least) two third-round picks (including compensatory picks). So, one of these teams could be the likely trade partner.”

“Every one of those teams except maybe the Cardinals may feel like they have a decent chance at competing this year. When teams feel as such, it leads to aggressiveness in trading up for certain players they feel will help push them over the top.

“Of those teams, I think that the Chiefs, Broncos and 49ers would be the most likely to make a move up. The Chiefs do not have a first round pick and we all know Big Red can find a lineman or DB he’d like enough to move up to 32 for.

“The Broncos may be feeling like they need to make an aggressive move to try an capitalize on their veteran team before the wheels come off. The 49ers are an upstart team with a second year head coach and a prized QB they just traded for. Plus, they may feel pressure from what the Rams have done and will need to compete with them.”

“If we traded back to the Broncos’ pick in Round 2 (slot 40), the best we could hope for as an extra pick is their third round compensatory pick at slot 99. The Chiefs have slot 54 in Round 2 and trading down to that spot should net either one of their third-rounders (slot 78 or 86) as an extra. The 49ers have slot 59 in Round 2 which should net us slot 74 in the third as an extra..

“The good part about a deal with the Broncos would be we aren’t trading down as far, but the third round selection is late. A trade with the 49ers would mean moving down a whopping 27 spots but would also net us an early third. The Chiefs are the sweet spot in the middle…mid second-rounder and mid third-rounder.”

“Therefore, put me down for an Eagles-Chiefs trade but I’d certainly do any of those three.”

As a wild card scenario…what if some team offered the Eagles their third round pick this year along with their first-rounder next year for pick 32? Would you do that and forego having any picks in the first and second round this year for having two firsts next year?

Well, you can see from reading Dave’s theory that it is possible this MACH 10 will be the wildest contest yet!

If Dave’s tradeback theory holds up, we had best be researching players who will fall to the mid-second and early-third rounds. Dave suggests this list of candidates :

OT Brian O’Neill
OT Chukwuma Okorafor
OT Tyrell Crosby
OG Billy Price
S Ronnie Harrison
CB Donte Jackson
RB Sony Michel
RB Rashaad Penny
RB Nick Chubb
RB Ronald Jones II
TE Dallas Goedert

Then there is this tribute to ~BROZ’ latest “boi” at Drafttek:

“Is it possible the Eagles could trade down and still land a player many thought they’d have to take at 32? Absolutely. I think Justin Reid would be an excellent choice at 32 and I believe he’s a first-round talent.
Could he still be there, at say, between picks 35-40? Sure.”

“In this draft, it seems Round 2 would be a good round to target a running back, defensive back or tight end. Interior OL would be another good position to target as well. In fact, two of my favorite value picks who could be there in a trade-down scenario are Frank Ragnow and Billy Price.”

Thanks, Dave, for the MACH 10 study notes.