Democrats’ chances of holding onto control of the House of Representatives after the 2022 midterm elections remain slim, based on aggregate predictions combined with recent polling.
The Democrats have held a majority in the House of Representatives since the 2018 elections when they won 235 seats, though that was dwindled down to 222 seats in the 2020 elections. The GOP is now heavily favored to regain control of the house this November, needing a swing of just seven seats to ensure their own house majority.
Democrats Given Just a 19% Chance of Holding House Control in November
The Republican party holds a 2% lead over the Democrats in generic ballot polling as of mid-July, with 45.5% of the sample size declaring an intention to vote for their GOP candidate this coming fall.
The major aggregate polling and election prediction analysis has a unanimous edge going to the Republican party for the 2022 mid-term elections. Of the seven major election prediction outlets that have published their analysis, three of them are already predicting a majority win for the Republican party in the House of Representatives, with the Democrats forecasted to lose a significant amount of seats this November.
The GOP needs just seven seats to regain control of the house, and based on current predictions odds, and implied probability, the Democrats hold just a 19% chance of holding control of the House of Representatives in 2023.
Will the Democrats Lose House Control in the November Election?
Based on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, there are upwards of 25 seats held by Democrat representatives in historically Republican districts. However, the pendulum of public opinion looks to be swinging in the other direction, with Democratic President Joe Biden facing the lowest approval rating numbers of his presidency, there is a potential for a red wave of moderate Republicans to take over the House in November.
The 2022 midterm elections for the House of Representatives will be held on November 8th, 2022. Voters will elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across 50 states. November 8th will also be the date for numerous other federal, state, and local elections, including the elections for the 2022 United States Senate.
In 2020, 94% of the U.S. House representatives ran in relatively uncontested races for their seats, with just a small handful of seats being won in competitive races. Democrats have made gains in Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Oregon, but with low voter turnout and GOP gains in Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Maryland, and Tennessee, the chances of the blue party holding on to house control remain small.