Each NFL playoff contender’s X-factor

Green Bay Packers v Washington Redskins

Every NFL playoff contender wants to have a December to remember, and each of these teams has one forgotten player who needs to step up for that to happen.

With four weeks remaining in the regular season, each of the following teams are at least within one game of the wild-card in their conference or first place in their division.

Patriots: Malcolm Mitchell

The Patriots (10-2) need a red zone target with Rob Gronkowski done for the year. Rookie Malcolm Mitchell has broken out over the last three games. He’s caught 17 passes, three for touchdowns.

The fourth-round draft pick caught two touchdowns in the red zone against the Jets in Week 12, including an 8-yarder for the winning points with 1:56 left in the Patriots’ 22-17 road victory.

In Sunday’s 26-10 home win over the Rams, Mitchell caught a season-high eight passes for 82 yards. Chris Hogan caught a touchdown pass in the game, but the 28-year-old has never caught more than 41 passes in a season. Mitchell has the upside.

Dolphins: DeVante Parker

DeVante Parker is the only first-round pick among Dolphins wide receivers who have caught passes this season. He needs to prove worthy of the 14th overall pick on a more consistent basis.

Jarvis Landry leads the Dolphins with 75 catches. He’s a reliable possession receiver. Kenny Stills is the Dolphins’ deep threat. He’s averaging 17.9 yards per reception but has only 28 catches.

In his second season, Parker has 44 receptions, three for touchdowns. Two of those touchdowns have come in the last three games, including the game-winner with 36 seconds left in the Dolphins’ 14-10 comeback victory at Los Angeles in Week 11. Parker played through a back injury and scored the Dolphins’ only touchdown Sunday in their 38-6 shellacking at Baltimore.

Parker has had eight receptions and gone over 100 yards twice this season. But in seven games he’s caught three passes or less.

The Dolphins (7-5) will most likely have to catch the Broncos in the wild-card race to make the playoffs. For that to happen, Parker needs to pay dividends for the Dolphins a lot quicker than that first-round pick who throws him the ball.

Ravens: Kenneth Dixon

Terrance West is the Ravens’ leading rusher and he’s the man at the goal line. Four of his five touchdown runs have come from inside the 5-yard line.

But rookie Kenneth Dixon is becoming the back who gets the Ravens (7-5) to the red zone.

Dixon was drafted in the fourth round and slowly has earned more playing time. His snap count has increased in four straight games, topping out at 45.6 percent in Week 12, before rolling back to 33.3 percent Sunday against the Dolphins according to Pro Football Reference.

Dixon still gained a season-high 56 yards on six carries against the Dolphins and caught four passes for the second game in a row. Dixon’s rushing yards have increased in each of the last four games. He could be the key to the Ravens improving their 28th-ranked rushing offense in their race against the Steelers in the AFC North.

Steelers: Ladarius Green

Antonio Brown is tied for the league lead with 88 receptions. Running back Le’Veon Bell is second on the team with 63, but he’s not the long, vertical pass catcher that the Steelers (7-5) have been missing since Martavis Bryant was suspended during the offseason.

Ladarius Green might be that guy. The tight end headlined the Steelers’ free-agent signings, but sat out the first eight games of the season with an ankle injury. He had five catches in his first three games, then the chemistry with Ben Roethlisberger finally clicked Sunday against the Giants. Green had six catches for 110 yards, both career highs, and a touchdown in the Steelers’ 24-14 win.

Steelers opponents have had a hard enough time covering Brown without a legitimate No. 2 receiver on the field. Now they have a budding star at tight end to worry about.

Texans: Will Fuller

The rookie wall seemed to come early for Will Fuller.

After catching 19 passes in the first four games of the season, Fuller caught seven in his next four games.

The 21st overall pick in the draft has regained steam in the last two games, catching nine passes. He caught five for 59 yards in Sunday’s 21-13 loss at Green Bay, second on the team only two tight end security blanket C.J. Fiedorowicz. Despite the loss, Fuller helped Brock Osweiler achieve his highest passer rating of the season on the road.

Considering he played at Notre Dame, it shouldn’t be surprising that Fuller showed Sunday that he can be productive in the snow. That could come in handy if the Texans (6-6) have to go somewhere like New England or Denver for a playoff game.

Colts: Donte Moncrief

The Colts are locked in a three-way tie for the AFC South lead with the Texans and Titans. All three teams have 6-6 records and each of them could use any possible edge it can get over the other two.

The Titans led the NFL with touchdowns on 72.5 percent of their trips into the red zone, according to Team Rankings. The Colts aren’t far behind. They’re fifth at 65.85 percent.

The Texans lag behind in that area. They’re 29th with a 45.16 touchdown percentage inside the 20.

Donte Moncrief is a big reason for the Colts’ red zone success. Since coming back from a shoulder injury, he’s caught a touchdown pass in five straight games. Each of his team-leading six touchdown receptions have come from the 8-yard line or closer.

Moncrief is only fourth on the team with 28 receptions, but he’s providing a lot of bang for the buck.

Titans: Jack Conklin

It’s hard for the No. 8 overall pick in the draft to fly under the radar. But when Carson Wentz and Ezekiel Elliott also were drafted in the top 10, it’s easy to forget the impact of Jack Conklin.

The rookie has played mostly right tackle on an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranked sixth in the NFL through the first 10 weeks of the season. According to PFF, Conklin allowed his first two sacks of the season in a 24-17 Week 11 loss at Indianapolis, but recovered and didn’t allow any quarterback pressures in a 27-21 Week 12 win at Chicago.

Marcus Mariota was sacked 38 times in 12 games last year. Through 12 games this season, he’s been sacked 18 times. He has 25 touchdown passes and leads the NFL with touchdowns on 6.6 percent of his passes. With the help of Conklin and the rest of his offensive line, Mariota’s continued growth in his second season might be enough to get the Titans (6-6) into the playoffs.

Raiders: Bruce Irvin

Khalil Mack is in a five-way tie for third in the NFL with 10 sacks. He’s also broken up four passes and intercepted one. He’s the only player with 1o or more sacks to be credited with even one pass defended or interception.

Not only is Mack a bright spot in the Raiders’ 30th-ranked defense. He’s also a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Raiders (10-2) need Mack to keep dominating to stay atop the division. Bruce Irvin can help with that by forming the other half of a pass-rushing tandem. Irvin is second on the team with five sacks and has one in each of the last three games. He’s been among the Raiders’ five highest-graded defensive players three times in the last four games per Pro Football Focus.

Mack has grown accustomed to beating double teams, and if Irvin raises his game Mack could find himself with only one blocker to beat more often.

Chiefs: Tyreek Hill

Jeremy Maclin has missed the last four games with a groin strain and could return Thursday night when the Chiefs (9-3) host the Raiders and try to pull even with them in the AFC West. The Chiefs’ leading receiver last year also was hobbled in the playoffs. With his health concerns, it’s unclear if Maclin can be relied upon as the Chiefs’ No. 1 receiver.

Rookie Tyreek Hill has emerged as the Chiefs’ go-to receiver in Maclin’s absence. He’s caught 28 passes over the last four games after catching 22 in his first eight. The fifth-round pick’s coming-out party came in Week 12 at Denver on Sunday Night Football. He caught a touchdown pass, ran for a touchdown and returned a kickoff for a touchdown. He became the first player since Gale Sayers in 1965 to score a touchdown three different ways in the same game.

Even if Maclin returns and stays off the trainer’s table, it wouldn’t hurt if he had some talent around him at the position. That’s something the Chiefs lacked before Hill came along.

Broncos: Jordan Norwood

The Broncos (8-4) have had trouble closing out games, and they let the Jaguars hang around in their 20-10 road win on Sunday.

Part of the problem is that they don’t have much of a ground game to churn out the clock. They’re 23rd in the NFL with 100.6 rushing yards per game and tied for 28th with 3.6 yards per carry. Those numbers don’t figure to improve anytime soon.

Devontae Booker is averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Backup Kapri Bibbs is averaging 4.4, but he suffered a high-ankle sprain Sunday.

Possession receiver Jordan Norwood can not only loosen up the coverage on Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, he can serve as a chain-mover in lieu of a ground game. He’s third on the team among wide receivers with 19 catches this season.

Cowboys: Maliek Collins

Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have taken the NFL by storm, but another member of the Cowboys’ 2016 draft class must raise his game for the Cowboys (11-1) to avoid an early playoff exit.

Defensive tackle Maliek Collins is second on the team with three sacks. He had one in last Thursday’s 17-15 win over the Vikings, and two came against the Browns. The Cowboys are 22nd in the league with 23 sacks and have allowed the fifth-highest passer rating (100.8). They’ll need a better pass rush against the likes of Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan in the postseason.

More than half of the Cowboys’ sacks have come from the defensive line. Tyrone Crawford has 3.5. Benson Mayowa has three and Jack Crawford has 2.5. But none of those players have more than five sacks in a season. The Cowboys better hope that Collins can tap into some pass-rushing upside.

Giants: Devon Kennard

Devon Kennard is a candidate to replace Jason Pierre-Paul on the Giants defensive line.

Kennard is about 20 pounds lighter than Pierre-Paul, but he could move from linebacker to defensive end in the Giants’ 4-3 defense. He was chosen in the fifth round of the 2014 draft and showed promise with 4.5 sacks in his rookie year, but he hasn’t had a sack since and he’s dealt with injuries throughout his career.

That pass-rushing potential remains. Kennard is third on the team behind Olivier Vernon and Pierre-Paul with eight defensive hurries, according to Sporting Charts.

Vernon leads the Giants with eight sacks and Pierre-Paul has seven. Kennard has a chance to be the guy who keeps the double teams off Vernon as the Giants (8-4) try to hold on to a wild-card spot in the NFC.

Redskins: Rob Kelley

The Redskins (6-5-1) seemed to be riding Rob Kelley to a playoff berth, but the running back has taken a pit stop and he’s running out of time to become a factor again.

An undrafted rookie, Kelley didn’t have more than five carries in a game before he broke out for 87 yards on 21 carries in a 27-27 Week 8 tie with the Bengals in London. Kelley ran for 97 yards on 22 carries the next week in a 26-20 home win and then on the prime time stage gouged the Packers for 137 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-24 home win.

Kelley has only run the ball 14 times in each of the last two games, however. He had 37 yards in a 31-26 Thanksgiving loss at Dallas and 63 in a 31-23 defeat at Arizona.

Redskins coach Jay Gruden told CSNMidAtlantic.com via Pro Football Talk that he’d like to see Kelley get the ball more. Perhaps there’s something Gruden can do about that.

Lions: Haloti Ngata

There was a time when Haloti Ngata wasn’t an under-the-radar player. He played for the Ravens for the first nine years of his career and perennially went to the playoffs and the Pro Bowl, earning a championship ring in 2012.

The 32-year-old Ngata has faded from public consciousness in his two years with the Lions, but he’s been doing a lot of unseen work in the trenches during the Lions’ four-game winning streak.

This run has coincided with Ngata’s return from a shoulder injury. The Lions signed Ngata in 2015 after Ndamukong Suh went to Miami. Ngata came cheaper and with fewer headaches. Like Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin on the other side of the ball, Ngata can flash a Super Bowl ring. His veteran leadership could give the Lions (8-4) the last boost they need to get into the playoffs and possibly do some damage once they get there.

Packers: Davante Adams

The Packers (6-6) seem to have recovered from their four-game losing streak. They’ve won their last two games.

While Davante Adams has helped fuel the resurgence, the Packers should be concerned about his dud on Sunday.

The Packers’ season was on the cusp of becoming a federal disaster when Adams caught five passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-13 win at Philadelphia in Week 12 on Monday Night Football.

In the Packers’ 21-13 home win over the Texans, however, Adams showed that he’s still inconsistent. He caught just one pass on seven targets.

Adams dropped one of those targets, a chilling flashback to 2015.

The Packers face an uphill climb to make the playoffs, and they could use the Adams of weeks 7 and 8, when he caught 13 passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns and then caught 12 passes for 74 yards. Perhaps he could have one of those games at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Earl Thomas is out and Richard Sherman figures to concentrate on Jordy Nelson.

Vikings: Cordarrelle Patterson

The Vikings (6-6) are two games behind the Lions in the NFC North and one game out of the wild-card. They need a lot of things to go right to make the playoffs. Among them is for Cordarrelle Patterson to add to his five career kickoff return touchdowns.

Catching some passes on offense would be nice, too, but the Vikings can’t count on their offense. It ranks 31st in the NFL. Their rushing offense ranks last and their passing offense ranks 25th.

The Vikings will have to win games with their third-ranked defense, a big reason they’re second in the league with a plus-13 turnover ratio, and a little help on special teams.

That’s where Patterson comes in. His 104-yard kickoff return helped the Vikings beat the Cardinals 30-24 at Minnesota in Week 11. He averages 30.5 yards on his 19 kickoff returns. The closest player to him in that category who has returned as many kicks is the Rams’ Benny Cunningham, who averages 27.2 yards on 22 returns.

Every yard of field position will help the offensively challenged Vikings.

Falcons: Jalen Collins

The Falcons (7-5) have lost two of their last three. They still lead the NFC North, but are hearing footsteps and currently occupy first place on a tiebreaker.

Desmond Trufant, the Falcons’ top cornerback, is out for the season with a torn pectoral. Atlanta needs second-year cornerback Jalen Collins to fill the void.

Collins broke up three passes in the Falcons’ 38-19 Week 12 home win over the Cardinals. In Sunday’s 29-28 loss to the Chiefs in Atlanta, Collins was the only Falcon to be credited with a pass defended, according to ESPN.com. Most of the damage was done by tight end Travis Kelce, who led the Chiefs with eight catches.

The Falcons are allowing 280.8 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL. They play at Los Angeles, host the 49ers and go to Carolina before hosting Drew Brees and the Saints in Week 17. The Falcons better hope Collins sharpens his skills over the next three weeks if they need to beat the Saints to make the playoffs.

Buccaneers: Robert Ayers

Defensive end Robert Ayers missed four games with an ankle injury earlier this season. During the Buccaneers’ four-game winning streak, however, he’s looking like a much wiser free-agent investment.

The Buccaneers’ signature win so far was their 14-5 upset of the visiting Seahawks in Week 12. Ayers, a former Giant, had a sack in that game and Pro Football Focus credited him with three quarterback hits and four hurries. He also had seven pressures to go with his sack in Sunday’s 28-21 win at San Diego.

The Bucs (7-5) are 11th in the NFL with 29 sacks, and 12 of them have come during their four-game winning streak. That has coincided with Ayers’ ability to get to the quarterback. Of his 4.5 sacks this season, 3.5 have come in the last four games.

Russell Wilson threw for 118 yards against Tampa Bay and Philip Rivers was limited to 211. Ayers has been a big part of this defensive surge and he’ll need to keep up the good work with the Bucs facing Drew Brees twice as well as Dak Prescott and Cam Newton in the last four weeks of the season.

Seahawks: K.J. Wright

K.J. Wright isn’t the first name that comes to mind when people think of Seahawks defensive players.

Wright might register on the stat sheet here and there. He has three sacks and four passes defended, the most pass breakups on the team among non-defensive backs. But most of what Wright does for the Seahawks defense can’t be measured in numbers, and he’s doing enough for Richard Sherman to lobby for him to be named to the Pro Bowl, according to the team website.

The elephant in the room in Seattle is Earl Thomas’ injury. Safety Steven Terrell will start in his place. But he alone can’t provide what Thomas did. Everyone will have to pitch in to fill the void, and Wright might have to do a few things now and then that do get noticed.

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