Ahh, the beginning of a new season. It is a time of great excitement for fans of teams across the league, from those who cheer for juggernauts like the newly crowned Cleveland Cavaliers or the already crowned (in some observer’s eyes) Golden State Warriors, to those who hope to make the humble leap from the lottery into the playoffs. Perhaps this year, more than any other in recent team history, is a time of great optimism for fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves. With an exciting and talented young nucleus and a well-regarded new head coach, the Timberwolves are poised to improve drastically on their 29-53 record from a year ago. After a whirlwind offseason consisting of changes across the front office and roster alike, what can we expect this year from our growing Timberpups?
- The Timberwolves will finish top 20 in defensive rating.
Defensive rating is a stat which tracks the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. The Timberwolves finished a wretched 28th in defensive rating last year, with 110.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. For reference, this would be like playing the San Antonio Spurs in every game, which finished with a 111.0 offensive rating. There are a number of reasons to think that the Timberwolves will improve drastically on defense. The continued maturation of players like Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine, who have the size and athleticism to be solid defenders, along with the addition of Kris Dunn should shore up the perimeter defense. The addition of Cole Aldrich is expected to further improve the interior defense. But most importantly is our new coach. Fans of Minnesota sports have come to understand the value of good coaching, particularly on the defensive side, after Mike Zimmer improved the Vikings defense from 27th the year before he arrived, all the way to #2 this year (by Football Outsiders DVOA stat). I previously wrote about the effect Tom Thibodeau has had on his team’s defenses, and there is no reason to believe he can’t teach these Timberwolves how to stop NBA offenses more efficiently. A significant improvement to the tune of a top 20 defense should be expected of the Timberwolves this year.
- The Timberwolves will finish in the top 10 in points per game.
Last year, the Timberwolves ranked 15th in the NBA with 102.4 points per game. They finished 12th in offensive rating, but their slower pace of play (20th in the NBA) contributed to a lower ranking in points per game. Where can the Timberwolves improve on offense this year? The obvious deficiency, from both the eye test and the stats, is in their 3-point shooting. Last year, they ranked 2nd to last in both 3-point attempts and 3 pointers made. There is reason to believe that they will improve their 3-point shooting this year. Following the All Star break, Zach LaVine improved his three point shooting from 34.5% to 43.7%. Likewise, Andrew Wiggins improved his 3 point shooting from a dreadful 24.4% to 41.3% post All Star break. Combining these striking improvements from two of the Wolves key players with Tom Thibodeau’s emphasis on improving the Timberwolves 3-point shooting, and you get a Timberwolves team that should be much more dangerous from deep this season. If the Timberwolves can continue to get to the line at a high rate (1st in free throws made per game last season on the 2nd most attempts), they will have the recipe for a top 10 scoring offense.
- The Timberwolves will have at least one, and possibly two, All Stars.
The Western Conference is a bloodbath when it comes to All Star voting, with players such as Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, and Chris Paul all but locks to represent the West in the All Star game. That leaves six more slots, with Klay Thompson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Demarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Damian Lillard, and others in the mix for the remaining spots. But after seeing the way Karl-Anthony Towns played in his rookie season, and the dogged determination he has to improve each and every day, it’s not hard to believe that he will find a way to crack into this mix. Combine that with increased national exposure from nationally televised games and (presumably) a more competitive record, this should be the year where he breaks into the elite of the Western Conference. Andrew Wiggins already has the scoring ability to warrant consideration for an All Star spot. However, he needs to show improvement in other areas, particularly defense and rebounding, to truly be worthy of selection. Due to his high flying act, he will be a fan favorite and perhaps draw a disproportionate number of votes due to sheer popularity. While not as likely as KAT to make the All Star team this year, Andrew Wiggins has a decent chance and is still on track to be an All Star at some point in his career.
- Ricky Rubio will not be traded this season.
Ricky Rubio has been a hot topic around Wolves circles practically since he came into the league. Many decry his inability to develop a shot, which allows defenses to leave him open and clog the paint, deterring drives from Andrew Wiggins and others. But Ricky brings a plethora of important contributions to the Timberwolves, from his superb vision and passing ability to his tenacious defense and his leadership capability. The rumor mill started back up when the Timberwolves drafted Kris Dunn with the 5th overall pick of the draft. Questions about whether Tom Thibodeau and Scott Layden want Ricky as their starting point guard still exist, and it is possible that Ricky may not be in their long-term plans. But with three years left on a relatively reasonable contract, and Dunn’s preseason play (albeit in a small sample size) making it clear he is not ready to take over the reins yet, Ricky still provides a lot of value to this team.
- The Timberwolves will make the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
It seems like Timberwolves fans have been saying this is the year we get back to the playoffs for about the last 10 years (with a couple notable exceptions of years that were lost before they began). This year it truly feels like it may be the year we break the drought. The Timberwolves improved by 13 wins last year, their first with Karl-Anthony Towns, to finish with a 29-53 record. For a season that was sent into turmoil by the death of Flip Saunders, resulting in an interim coach and general manager, this seems like an incredible accomplishment in hindsight. In order to make the playoffs, the Timberwolves will have to finish with an improvement of the same magnitude, somewhere in the neighborhood of 42-44 wins. With the coaching change, roster improvements, and internal growth of a young team, there is reason to believe that they can make a similar leap and break into the playoffs.
Regular season basketball is almost here, folks. Here’s to an exciting season.
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