Israel Adesanya headlines UFC 276 this weekend from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, as he defends his UFC Middleweight Title against hard-hitting dangerman, Jared Cannonier.
Also on the stellar card is the trilogy bout between UFC Featherweight Champion, Alexander Volkanovski, and former champion, Max Holloway. Volkanovski has won the first two meetings between the pair, and looks to settle the score once and for all with a third and career defining victory. However, all eyes are on the main event, as we assess the chances and probability of Israel Adesanya claiming victory in the octagon on Saturday night.
Read on to find out what chances ‘The Last Stylebender’ actually had with the implied probability mathematics, as well as odds on the fight.
Israel Adesanya Chance Of Beating Cannonier
You are probably wondering how how you can predict the probability and how you can therefore determine the implied probability of either fighter winning this mammoth middleweight title clash.
Well, to find out the implied probability, all you need are the bookmakers odds. For example, take Israel Adesanya in this headliner fight. He is currently priced at around -400 with BetOnline to win the fight from the T-Mobile Arena on Saturday night. Simply put that fraction into an online calculator, and it will convert those odds into UK odds, decimal odds or implied probability.
So, once you convert Izzy’s -400 odds into implied probability, it says 80%. What this means is that Adesanya has an 80% chance of winning according to the bookmakers. Take his opponent on Saturday, Jared Cannonier, he has just a 25% implied probability of winning the fight. So in short, it is far more likely that Adesanya walks away from the octagon with the victory than Cannonier.
Inn essence, what they are saying is that Oleksandr Usyk is 55% more likely to win this fight for UFC 185-pound gold. The New Zealander is the overriding favourite but Cannonier will be confident he can upset the odds and claim his first UFC title.
| Bet | Implied Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 80% |
| Jared Cannonier | 25% |
| Draw | 1% |
Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier Odds
Looking at the bookmakers odds for the fight, it is clear to see who they think is the more likely to walk away from the octagon on Saturday night in Vegas victorious.
Israel Adesanya is the current -400 betting favourite with BetOnline, and will be a similar price with all other bookmakers too. On the other hand, ‘The Killa Gorilla’ is the underdog by quite some distance, and can be backed at a price of +300 with BetOnline.
The price for a draw is a staggering +8000 with BetOnline, but this is highly unlikely as it is almost impossible for UFC fights to be deemed a draw, given the fact they are either three round fights, or in this case as a title fight and main event bout, five rounds. In fact, there have been less than 40 draws in UFC history, dating back to when the company was first launched in 1993.
Here is a breakdown of the fight odds for Adesanya vs Cannonier:
Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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