The Eagles (3-2) come into Week 6 with a home game against the Detroit Lions (1-3)….so far, so good…
AccuScore is forecasting a close game, with the Detroit Lions winning 43% of the 1,000 mainframe computer simulations, and the Philadelphia Eagles winning 56% of the simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Detroit Lions commit fewer turnovers in 39% of simulations, and they go on to win 68% of the time when they take care of the ball. The Philadelphia Eagles win 73% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is averaging 252 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2- to-1 TD- to- INT ratio (34% chance) then he helps his team win 56%. LeSean McCoy is averaging 95 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (39% chance), then he helps his team win at a 76% rate.
I just love those mainframe computer simulations…I don't know why. Maybe because they give us a backdrop to help us frame our own intuitive analysis of what needs to happen this Sunday.
One thing for sure the computer is trying to tell us: ball control on offense is a priority.
And as the Eagles have been forced by injuries and flawed protection schemes and questionable offensive execution to dial down their vertical play-calling…. and gradually transition to a ball-control offense… 2nd year fullback Sanley Havili's role is becoming increasingly prominent and more important.
In last Sunday's 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh, Havili was in for 21 of the team's 57 total offensive plays, or 37 percent of the time. The week before, he played 38 percent of the snaps against the New York Giants.
By contrast, Owen Schmitt was in on less than 16 percent of the plays as the Eagles' lone fullback a year ago, and carried just four times for six yards. Havili already has five carries for 21 yards.
But it's as a blocker in the running game and special-teams contributor where Havili is really earning his money.
"I'm just happy to be on the field," said Havili, who spent all of last season on the practice squad, after being taken in the seventh round of the NFL Draft out of USC. "I'm happy to block as many times as they need me."
"I get a more satisfying feeling to get a good block than to carry the football. I mean, that's my job, to block. Carrying the football is just icing on the cake."
"He can ball," running back LeSean McCoy added. "This guy is just blowing people up this year. He's making my life easier, he's opening up big holes and he's bringing the energy every play. He's got the will to want to block, the will to want to blow guys up and be successful."
McCoy went on to say in that rant that Havili should get a chance to go to the Pro Bowl.
That won't happen — unless he catches on even bigger as a special teams player, which is a more realistic possibility. Havili will enter Sunday's game against the Detroit Lions with the Eagles' second most special teams production points behind kicker Alex Henery.
This was Havili's main goal, and it's the reason he's playing so much more now.
"I think my whole mind-set coming into this year was to make a splash on special teams," he said. "I want to be a good special teams player, and fullbacks in this league have to be able to play special teams."
Look for Havili to be more involved with the offense as the season wears on.
"Stanley's done a nice job," Reid said. "He worked very hard in the offseason; put himself in a position where he can be the starting fullback in the National Football League. When he first came here, he wasn't as strong, not quite as big. He was more of a utility-type back in college, where he did a little blocking but not much, and did a lot of catching and running."
"He still maintains those skills, but he's added into it being a solid blocker and a good special teams player."
Havili will never be confused with Leonard Weaver, the most talented and productive fullback this team has had in the Reid era. But he can be trusted to do much more than the Eagles have traditionally asked from their fullbacks. He can be a difference-maker, which is more than they realistically could have hoped for when they picked him.
The Eagles started going with Havili more as a lead blocker in the I-formation against the Giants on Sept. 30. They wound up with 191 rushing yards while running more than they passed.
"Oh yeah, he was important," offensive coordinator Marty Morhinweg said. "That wasn't the main reason [for the running success], but that was one of the reasons. I don't want to get too detailed here, but having Stanley in is a good thing in some situations."
So don't be surprised if you see the Eagles going more to the I-formation with Havili in the lead block role as the Birds strive to regain some semblance of ball-control on offense. As the AccuScore computers have already told us, when the Eagles control the ball on offense and don't cough it away, they are extremely more likely to win.
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BRI SUKS EGG FANCY FOOTBALL RESULTS AND STANDINGS…
It was a weekend of traumatic separation from the pack for many of the FF faithful and their fans…
ATV's Dirty Stinkin' Bums annihilated good buddy Boner, 168-54…a most unfortunate massacre. Meanwhile, Leo's Skunk Apes dispatched good ole Palmetto, 138-100… JB Sage-Lion maintained his undefeated lead by pounding upon Australia's resident genius Beanstalk, 112-84… Brozer's Brizer Fantasy Boys had a gay time of it against the dirty Hoof of Spiffo, 149-104… HA HA Harmonica Harry won a grudge match of sorts against the witty PPW, 133-100… and Hud's Hoes humiliated Jerky's Jetpack Ninja Dinosaurs, 184-150…
Hence the emerging trends of the current standings:
Team W L T GB
Bri Slappers (JB) 5 0 ….
Skunk Apes (Leo) 4 0 1 .5
Bri's Boys (Brozer) 3 1 1 1.5
Hudrock Hoes 3 2 2
Evans Head Beano 3 2 2
HA HA (Harry) 2 3 3
Dem DS Bums (ATV) 2 3 3
Hoof Heart (Spiffo) 2 3 3
PPW 2 3 3
Palmetto 1 4 4
Jetpack Jerky 1 4 4
T-Bone 1 4 4
Look for the middle of the pack with 2 wins or more to make their move against the leaders within the next three weeks of the season. At the same time, it's week-by-week survival watch now for Palmetto, Jerky (former champion) and T-Bone.
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