NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (WAS)
When Scherzer was listed under the MVP runners-up, you likely figured he would be the favorite here. The right-handed pitcher continues to defeat aging, as he will certainly get his 7th top 5 Cy Young finish from age 28 to 35, and as of now, it looks like he will win his 4th in that timeframe. He is currently nursing an injury that could keep him out of the couple starts, unfortunately, but it hasn’t stopped him from looking like the favorite so far. Scherzer has a 5.3 bWAR and 5.6 fWAR on the backs of a 2.41 ERA, 2.09 FIP, and 2.81 xFIP in 134.1 innings. That is 6.7 innings per start with elite run prevention.
Runners Up: Jacob deGrom (NYM), Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD), Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
While each three of these arms will need to make up a lot of ground to compete with Scherzer for first-place votes, with Scherzer’s injury it is possible. deGrom is of course coming off of a great season in which he won the NL Cy Young award. He is 2nd in fWAR with 4.4 and has only allowed 2 runs in 26 innings since the All-Star break, thanks to utilizing his slider more since the promotion of a new pitching coach. Ryu is also now dealing with an injury that may make him lose a couple of starts, but either way, he is onto his 2nd straight season with a sub-2 ERA. He is 2nd in bWAR at 5.0 thanks to a 1.66 ERA, but a 3.27 xFIP points to some regression for the rest of this season. Scherzer’s teammate Stephen Strasburg has slowed since the beginning of the season but is still 3rd in the National League in innings pitched, and he has a low-3 ERA with matching ERA estimators.
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole (HOU)
The AL Cy Young race remains close among a lot of unlikely candidates. Currently, it seems like Houston’s Gerrit Cole is the favorite. He made headlines recently by becoming the quickest pitcher to 200 strikeouts in a season and already is at over 150 innings pitched. His high strikeout profile has allowed him to have a low ERA at 2.87, 4th lowest in the AL, but if it were not for a homer-friendly home park and a 17.3% HR/FB, it may be even better, as evidenced by the 2nd best DRA in the AL and the best xFIP by far.
Runners Up: Lance Lynn (TEX), Charlie Morton (TBR), Justin Verlander (HOU)
Each of these three has a good argument right now for being the Cy Young. Cole’s teammate Justin Verlander is also dealing with the effects of Minute Maid Park, and also matches him with a 2.73 ERA and a 2.64 DRA over 151 innings. Verlander is also first among American League starters in WPA. He has gotten help from a .199 BABIP and a 90% strand rate, but either way he is having a great season. Lance Lynn may be the most surprising, but he is 2nd in bWAR at 5.5 and also 1st in fWAR at 5.3, a fantastic breakout season at 32 years old, but a 3.71 ERA doesn’t appear as Cy Young worthy at first glance. Morton is the latest Rays surprise Ace, ranking 3rd in fWAR and 4th in bWAR on the backs of a 2.78 ERA. However, not being able to go through the lineup the third time through as often as the other candidates should hurt his case.
NL Rookie of the Year: Fernando Tatis Jr (SDP)
This year’s National League Rookie of the Year race might be the most exciting in quite some time. The young phenom Fernando Tatis Jr. seems like the favorite for now, but if the season ended right now it would for sure be a close race. Anyone could separate in the final 2 months. Tatis is leading NL rookies in fWAR at 3.9, has the highest wRC+ at 155 (even above slugger Pete Alonso), has the highest Baserunning Runs of any NL rookies with 3.1, backed by 14 stolen bases, and of course, plays a premium position at shortstop. The only question would be if voters shy away from Tatis knowing his wOBA is vastly outperforming his xwOBA and his BABIP is clearly unsustainable.
Runners Up: Pete Alonso (NYM), Mike Soroka (ATL), Bryan Reynolds (PIT)
Alonso has a fair case for the award right now given his offensive performance. He is 2nd in fWAR (3.5) and 2nd in wRC+ (145) among rookies. Alonso also ranks 1st among all National League players in Barrels per batted ball event, and is 3rd, only behind MVP candidates, in home runs. The only thing holding him back is playing a less valuable first base. Bryan Reynolds has quietly also hit nearly as well as Alonso. While he has played fewer games and is benefitting more from an unsustainable BABIP rather than power, the Pirates outfielder has a 144 wRC+ and an OBP over .400. He also ranks above Alonso and Tatis is WPA. His defense has been rated as average at best, but either way, this is a very impressive season. Soroka would also likely get some first-place votes if the season ended today. He still has the 2nd lowest ERA of any qualified pitcher, and obviously the lowest among NL rookies. Even though his peripherals point to some luck, Soroka’s 3.17 FIP and 2.95 DRA are incredibly impressive.
AL Rookie of the Year: Daniel Vogelbach (SEA)
The American League race is a bit less exciting as the National League one, as most NL candidates would likely win this one. Vogelbach plays first base when he is in the field at all and has had a wRC+ of only 110 since the beginning of May, including a low .211 batting average. However, his beginning of the season was solid enough to allow him to still be the favorite. Over 407 plate appearances, Vogelbach has a 133 wRC+, .867 OPS, 2.24 WPA, and a .372 xwOBA.
Runners Up: Brandon Lowe (TBR), Spencer Turnbull (DET), Yordan Alvarez (HOU)
Lowe has essentially been neck-and-neck with Vogelbach the entire season. The 2nd baseman has missed some time with injury and slowed down, however, which is why he probably is not the favorite for the award at this point. Lowe has struggled with making contact, but he still has a 127 wRC+, 100% SB success rate in 5 attempts, 2.5 fWAR, 2.9 bWAR, and has shown the ability to play several positions. Turnbull has been the best rookie pitcher throughout the 2019 season, putting together 19 starts with a 3.65 ERA and 4.05 FIP. The right-hander is close to 2 wins above replacement. It is impressive that Yordan Alvarez has already made his way into the topic of conversation for this award, as he has only played 40 games. Those 40 games as a first baseman were good enough at the plate that he has a good shot to win this as he plays the rest of the season. Right now, Alvarez has a .338/.420/.689 slash line and a 191 wRC+, which is the highest of any batter in the game minimum 150 plate appearances.
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