NL Manager of the Year: Brian Snitker (ATL)
Manager of the Year is always hard to judge since most of the voters do not actually follow the managerial decisions of every manager in the league. Rather, they look at team performance and success relative to the talent of the team, among other factors. While there are no surprising teams currently in playoff position in the National League, it may be a surprise to see the braves essentially run away with the competitive NL East, making Brian Snitker the favorite here. Relative to expectations, this has been a fantastic year for Atlanta and considering the many young players and rookies with big roles (Acuna, Riley, Soroka, Albies, Fried), some credit with assuredly be given to the manager.
Runners Up: Bruce Bochy (SFG), Dave Roberts (LAD), Gabe Kapler (PHI)
Given how the next two months go for the Wild Card race, this could be given to any of these three. Bruce Bochy, who announced he would retire following the season, has made the Giants the biggest surprise contender in the National League. With several players casual fans haven’t even heard of in the starting lineup, Bruce Bochy has led the team from a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs in late June to a winning record by the Trade Deadline. Dave Roberts has a great roster to work with, but there’s no denying that a manager who has led his team to the best record in the league should at least be a candidate, especially considering all the playing time he has to mix around. Kapler is interesting to be here because relative to preseason expectations, the Phillies are more underperforming than overperforming, but considering Kapler has had to deal with many injuries, including 6 season-ending injuries to relievers, and they are still in a playoff position is very impressive. Additionally, only the Giants have a bigger gap in the actual record and Pythagorean record (based on run differential), and no team has a bigger gap in the actual record and 3rd Order projections (based on underlying player metrics and strength of schedule). That points to their record being much better than individuals have played, which is a good argument for a manager’s positive impact.
AL Manager of the Year: Aaron Boone (NYY)
The Yankees have dealt with many injuries, to stars such as Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, etc. They are also in a division with the defending champion Red Sox and the surprising Rays. And yet, they have basically run away with the division and are setting themselves up for a nice playoff run. The success of the Yankees makes Boone a favorite for this award, especially considering how their record outperforms their run differential and individual statistics.
Runners Up: Rocco Baldelli (MIN), Terry Francona (CLE), Kevin Cash (TBR)
Baldelli was the obvious favorite one-third of the way through the season, but since then the Twins have slipped just a little bit and are now at risk of losing the division to the surging Indians. While the Twins have still been impressive, if the surging Indians defeat the many injuries and holes to their roster to win the division, Terry Francona may get some votes as well. Kevin Cash may finally get the Rays back into the playoffs on the backs of his unconventional staff management. If they do make it, Cash deserves to be in this crowd of names as well.
NL Reliever of the Year: Kirby Yates (SDP)
Kirby Yates has quietly been one of the best relievers in the MLB over the past few years, and 2019 is his best. He has a 1 win lead on every other NL reliever in fWAR, has 32 saves already with only 2 failed attempts. In 45 innings, Yates has a 1.00 ERA, 1.06 FIP, and a 2.13 xFIP. There has never been a reliever season in baseball history with as good of an ERA and FIP as Yates has over 40 innings, the closest being Craig Kimbrel’s 2012 season, when he won the Rolaids Relief Award.
Runners Up: Josh Hader (MIL), Felipe Vazquez (PIT), Will Smith (SFG)
Hader, Vazquez, and Smith are all having great seasons as well and may have even won the award most seasons. Hader has a low 2.58 ERA and 2.29 xFIP. This seems great, but not amazing, at least until you consider the bad luck he has had with pitching in Miller Park and the fact that he routinely goes multiple innings. Only 9 other relievers, mostly garbage time long relief pitchers, have more innings pitched than Hader. Vazquez has been great for a few seasons now. He has a 1.7 fWAR and a 2.1 bWAR. Will Smith seemed to be a trade candidate this past week but instead stuck around with the Giants. If it weren’t for Smith, they may not be in the position to consider trying to go for it, as Smith has helped add 3.98 wins by win probability. Smith also has the most “shutdown innings” of any National League relief pitcher.
AL Reliever of the Year: Liam Hendriks (OAK)
Blake Treinen and Lou Trivino led the Athletics’ bullpen to a great season in 2018, but not many of the relievers repeated their great seasons. Except for Liam Hendriks, their AL Wild Card game starter. In 57.1 innings and many multiple inning appearances, Hendriks has a 1.41 ERA (ranks 2nd) and a 1.98 FIP (ranks 2nd). While he hasn’t spent much of the season as a traditional closer (14 save opportunities), and that may hurt him once voting comes around, he should still get some support because he has played a key role.
Runners Up: Taylor Rogers (MIN), Brad Hand (CLE), Ken Giles (TOR)
Rogers may have the best case of anybody outside of Hendriks right now. He is also pitching multiple innings some games, with 50 innings on the season already. The left-hander also has 16 saves on the season. His 2.15 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 2.99 xFIP are great but just do not match Hendriks’, but being 2nd in WPA among AL relievers helps his cause. Looking at more traditional closers, Brad Hand and Ken Giles have both had great seasons in their new homes. Giles has missed time and only has 35 innings pitched, but has an ERA and FIP under 1.60, with a low xFIP as well. Hand also has 1.5 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR to go along with 27 saves in 29 opportunities.
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