The Fourteen Lottery Teams from last season are ready to climb out of the cellar. Which young players are going to breakout and help their teams improve?
The recipe for being an NBA fan is fairly simple. Purchase enough team apparel to cover every day of the week, tune into every game – including those they stick on NBA TV – and repeatedly inform anyone within ear shot why each and every young player on their team is going to become a star.
The excitement of the beginning of a season is that every team starts with the same record, and that every player has the opportunity to apply their offseason improvements and become the best possible version of themselves.
While not every player can have a breakout season, many players do each year, making the leap from an end-of-the-bench player to a rotation player, or from a rotation player to a starter. Players like Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo recently made the leap from starter to star.
For teams in the lottery, the hope is that young players will break out and propel their teams to the next level. Scanning the league and identifying which players are truly poised for a breakout, we have assembled here the “All-Breakout Team” from amongst last year’s lottery squads.
PG: Matthew Dellavedova, Milwaukee Bucks
Playing alongside King James in Cleveland, “Delly” thrived off-the-ball as he knocked down open shots and played scrappy defense on the other end. He earned a certain amount of fame in the 2015 Finals filling in for the injured Kyrie Irving and doing his best to “lock down” Stephen Curry.
Dellavedova is now free from LeBron’s shadow and the presumptive starter in Milwaukee at point guard. On offense he will play what seems to be a similar role, spotting up around the arc as “Point Giannis” initiates the offense. The difference will be volume; Dellavedova will get more minutes and more shots in Milwaukee than he ever did in Cleveland.
On the Cavaliers he filled a spot in the rotation; on the Bucks he fills a need in the starting lineup. Whether Milwaukee starts Tony Snell or Malcolm Brogdon at the 2, Dellavedova will be the only sharpshooter in the starting lineup after shooting guard Khris Middleton went down with a torn hamstring. While Jabari Parker is working to improve his shot, it’s not there yet, and the Bucks will need to feed Delly the ball to open up the floor for their offense.
On defense Dellavedova will fit right into the Bucks’ scheme, and his effort on defense will go noticed as well. If Milwaukee weathers the storm of Middleton’s injury to make the playoffs, the narrative will speak of the improvements of the young stars – but Dellavedova will have played his part. He will be a plus/minus All-Star and a more successful player as he’s given room to shine.
SG: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
The retirement of Kobe Bryant left a void in the NBA for a fearless braggadocio with complete confidence in himself and the ability to take and make shots from anywhere on the court. That void is ready to be filled by Devin Booker.
Last season Booker had a mini-breakout, out-performing expectations as he made the All-Rookie First Team. He averaged 13.8 points per game, and 17.3 points per game when he started. Booker not only shot from anywhere on the court, but he rarely felt the need to get open first – and often didn’t need to. Little Kobe, anyone?
Booker wasn’t only a one-trick pony. He moved the ball effectively as well, multiple times hitting assist totals in the double-digits. That was a developing skill over the course of the season, but one he should be able to build on next year as well.
If Booker begins to take more efficient shots – something more likely to happen as he shares the court with the likes of Eric Bledsoe and not Archie Goodwin – he can bring his percentages up and begin scoring even more than last year. Then again, Kobe Bryant never cared about percentages – just winning. Booker is ready to do some of that as well.
SF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets
Another rookie last year, Hollis-Jefferson was acquired by Brooklyn as a result of the Nets’ trading former first-round pick Mason Plumlee to the Portland Trail Blazers. A hyper-athletic forward out of Arizona, Hollis-Jefferson came into the league with one calling card: defense.
Although his rookie season was plagued with injuries, Hollis-Jefferson did not disappoint when he was on the court. He boasted strong defensive plus/minus numbers, helping the Nets approach league average on defense when he was on the court. Even in limited minutes he swiped over a steal per game and gobbled up rebounds at both ends.
If Hollis-Jefferson can play close to a full season, he should play significantly more minutes this year for the Nets. While last season he was a low-usage player, playing alongside Jeremy Lin should allow him more opportunities to score. Even if his steal and rebound rates stay the same, more minutes will see those totals soar even more.
Players such as Tony Allen have carved out a place for themselves in the league even without an offensive skillset. Others such as Jae Crowder have added a three-point shot and become fringe All-Stars. Of course Kawhi Leonard added the ability to score everywhere and mirror opposing wings and became an MVP-candidate. There is plenty of opportunity before Hollis-Jefferson, and this season he will begin to snatch it.
PF: Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
In terms of popularity, Aaron Gordon has already broken out. The runner-up in last season’s exciting All-Star Dunk Contest, Gordon put himself on the map with dunks over Stuff the Magic Dragon and other high-flying antics. He even found himself appearing on the Ellen DeGeneres show.
Focusing specifically on the games, Gordon began to show flashes of stardom last season with the Magic. His per-36 numbers of 14 points, 10 rebounds, a block and a steal show a multi-faceted forward ready to take off. During the back-half of the season he would commonly put up lines of 19-14-4-2-3 as the Magic allowed him to flex his muscles.
The barrier to his breakout year is not Gordon, but rather with Orlando’s crowded frontcourt. While his most natural position is power forward – and he even saw some spot minutes at center last year – Orlando added a center and two power forwards this offseason, pushing Gordon to small forward. While he will start full-time this year, it will be at a less natural position for him.
Regardless, the talent and drive is there for Gordon to excel. An ideal season for him involves a passable three-point shot, increased playmaking, and consistent steal and block totals. Then in February he uses “Wingardium Leviosa” to throw himself an alley-oop and win the Dunk Contest rubber match with Zach LaVine.
C: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Gobert appeared on many of these lists last season, as a monstrous last two months of the 2015 season prepared the world for the breakout Stifle Tower performance. But sadly, injuries struck early and often last season, and fans tuning in for the Gobert Report often saw the 7’1” center sitting on the bench. The French Rejection would have to wait for his breakout season.
That season has arrived, and Gobert is ready to show the league what he can do. A fully healthy Rudy Gobert should lead the league in blocks; he finished third last season in blocks-per-game with 2.2, and both better health and slightly more minutes will help him reach that level.
Gobert can also increase his offensive numbers playing alongside the increased talent the Utah Jazz have assembled. Utah has a myriad of wings who can run the pick-and-roll, from new point guard George Hill to combo forward Joe Johnson. With the addition of Boris Diaw and the rise of Trey Lyles, Gobert and Favors may be staggered for many of their minutes, opening up the space around the hoop for Gobert to slam home offensive rebounds and take an interior pass right to the rim.
The other way Gobert is going to breakout is in national attention. The Utah Jazz have all the pieces in store to rise from lottery team to a strong playoff team, perhaps even snatching home-court advantage. Rudy Gobert will be at the middle of it, swatting shot after shot as opponents try to slow them down.
Opposing Squad: The Minnesota Timberwolves
Rather than narrow down the Timberwolves’ embarrassment of young riches to one player, they will instead field the opposing team in this “All-Breakout” showdown. Under new head coach Tom Thibodeau, Minnesota is poised to have a breakout season as a whole.
Point guard Kris Dunn is older than the average rookie, and brings a polished offensive game to go along with his tenacious defense. In Summer League Dunn effortlessly dominated the competition on offense, and in preseason has been an absolute shutdown force on defense. If starter Ricky Rubio is traded, Dunn may be ready this year to explode. In such a scenario, third-string Tyus Jones likewise looks ready to make the leap into a solid rotation player.
At shooting guard, Zach LaVine is going to take the league by storm. Already famous for his dunk contest accomplishments, LaVine is back at his natural position off-the-ball. He shot 43 percent down the stretch last season from beyond the arc, a balm for an offense that struggled from distance. An offseason learning under Tom Thibodeau should only help him apply his athleticism to the opposite end of the court.
Andrew Wiggins showed off his scoring prowess last season in averaging over 20 points per game, but has yet to bring the complete superstar package. Thibs oversaw the breakout of Jimmy Butler as an elite two-way player, and there is every reason to think he can do the same with Wiggins. Consistent defense and better efficiency could see Wiggins on the fringe of the All-Star conversation in his third season.
Power forward brings a host of young names, all with untapped potential. Nemanja Bjelica came over from Europe with the resume of a stretch-4, but was unable to translate that onto the NBA foor. If he can maximize his talent, the best lineups for Minnesota may pair him with Karl-Anthony Towns in the frontcourt.
Shabazz Muhammad has the scoring punch of a strong 6th man option, and if Thibs can bring him to an adequate level defensively he will earn a place in the rotation and potentially an extension. Gorgui Dieng is a consistent glue guy, the type of player organizations love to have around, and has an ever-evolving offensive skillset that could include range out to the 3-point line this year.
Finally, Karl-Anthony Towns is the name on every tongue when asked about breakout candidates, and for good reason. As a rookie Towns dropped 18-10 on the league, with solid percentages out to the arc and consistent team defense. In his second year, anything from All-Star to MVP candidate is on the table.
Pitted against the rest of the lottery teams, Minnesota alone has enough breakout candidates to win a game. If even half of their young players make the leap, the Timberwolves could crack into the playoffs. While the Warriors may have a stranglehold on the West, Minnesota is on its way. The Warriors better win titles while they can.
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