Déjà Vu is the feeling of having already experienced the present situation, and Sixers fans are growing sick of it.
“Ben Simmons has surgery on broken right foot”
Where have we seen this headline before?
“Joel Embiid to miss season after second surgery on right foot”
Come again?
“Joel Embiid has screws inserted into foot for surgery”
And?
“Nerlens Noel to miss season”
Okay?
“Andrew Bynum will have knee surgery, miss entire season”
Philadelphia 76ers fans have experienced devastating injuries to their exciting new players for five seasons now. That is the reality of their present situation. How will this affect their process moving forward? Will Simmons’s injury have a significant effect on their short or long-term success?
One thing is for certain, this Déjà Vu will only further expand the divide between Hinkie disciples, better known as believers in process over results, and the cynics of the drastic rebuild. Considering Ben Simmons will be out indefinitely after undergoing surgery and may not return this season, here are some thoughts and questions on the Sixers heading into this season:
Put a cape on Super Dario
Dario Saric immediately becomes an integral piece in the Sixers’ offense. Originally expected to be somewhat of an overlapping piece alongside Simmons, Dario seems likely to become the starting point forward, and he will take on many of the distributing responsibilities leftover by Ben’s absence.
What Saric lacks in explosiveness he makes up for with guile, strength, size, grit, and skill. Additionally, his presence on the floor provides for better spacing than lineups with Simmons, as Dario is not afraid to take and make 3-pointers. Saric will be able to run the pick and roll and run the floor with similar success to Simmons. In their first preseason game Dario showed confidence in his ability to run the offense and shoot the rock. He will need to tighten up his handle and limit his turnovers, but it is clear the offense will be running through him (when it’s not running through Embiid).
Jerryd Bayless or Sergio Rodriguez?
This is a tight one to call and perhaps there will be a completely even split of playing time between the two players at the point guard position. Originally, it seemed like Brett Brown was planning on having Bayless run with the starters and Sergio with the second unit, but the Simmons injury may change that.
Even if Sergio remains on the bench there is a sense that his ball-handling skills will be even more integral in running the offense. TJ McConnell showed flashes of success against the Celtics last night and should be a steady fill-in when necessary. Brett Brown will continue to gain confidence with Sergio, Bayless, and TJ depending on their upcoming preseason performances, and may even find some time for Brandon Paul who looks to be in very good offensive rhythm.
Joel Embiid
Was Ben Simmons even going to be the most important player for the Sixers this season? No, Joel Embiid is already that. There are three ways Embiid’s season can go. Either he can’t stay healthy, he does stay healthy but doesn’t live up to massive expectations, or he stays healthy and fulfills his potential. Ben Simmons could have taken some pressure off Joel both as a playmaker and as someone to steal some attention away from the injury plagued 7-2 still-growing behemoth.
Now more of the load will fall on Embiid’s broad shoulders and the spotlight will be placed squarely on him. If his first preseason action was any indication of what we can expect it’s clear Joel will need to shake off some rust.
But once he gains confidence in his abilities and in his body holding up the sky is the limit. Defensively, he won’t allow an easy path to the rim and will swat away most poster attempts (looking at you Jaylen). Offensively, he has a legitimately smooth stroke out to the 3-point line, and his efficiency and moves in the post will improve as he shakes off some nerves, gets his footwork down, and regains confidence in his body.
A successful, healthy, and productive season for Joel will portend a bright future for entire franchise and diminish the negativity of missing Simmons. Minutes restrictions will probably stick for most of the season, but expect Embiid to start next to Dario and anchor the defense. Coach Brown has already stated that he feels the two of them are a perfect pairing together.
Big Man Depth
Having an abundance of bigs now becomes a good problem to have. Without Simmons, Jerami Grant may actually get some playing time as well as Richaun Holmes. Even though they are not an ideal pairing based on performances from last yearOkafor and Noel will probably be used in some sort of rotation off the bench. The coaching staff will be challenged with finding creative rotations. Perhaps when Embiid comes out they can bring Noel in and really run the offense through Dario while Noel does the dirty work. Then have an extremely short stretch where Dario rests and Noel and Okafor try to figure out a way to co-exist. Playing time has opened up for all the bigs in the rotation, but rotating them will require constant maintenance and tinkering.
Overall Outlook
In the short-term, losing Ben Simmons will not significantly affect the Sixers place in the standings. Demoralizing as it may be for the franchise, Simmons was not going to win them 5-10 games on his own, and the difference between winning 20 or 25 games this season is irrelevant. What might be more concerning is the negative affect of him missing valuable on-court playing time to develop chemistry with his fellow young teammates. Although impossible to define or measure, it certainly may stunt the franchise growth and positive momentum moving into the offseason.
The opposing glass-half-full view centers around Embiid’s health and progress. Along with Embiid, if the rest of the core makes strides in the right direction, there remains a distinct possibility that the franchise ends up with several valuable first round picks in next year’s deep NBA Draft while maintaining cap flexibility.
All it will take is one offseason without a major injury to an important core member of the franchise for the rest of the season to feel like another building block towards the ultimate goal of the process: for the 76ers to cement themselves as long-term perennial title contenders.
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