The Steelers are on to the Divisional Round. They will make their first trip outside of the Eastern Time Zone this season (which has not been a kind venture in the past) to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Since Bill Cowher became head coach in 1992, the Steelers are just 1-6 in playoff games outside the Eastern Time Zone. In that same timespan, the Chiefs are just 1-4 in home playoff games with their only victory coming over the Steelers in 1993. The Steelers have not made it to the AFC Championship Game since 2010 while the Chiefs have not been to the AFC Championship since 1993 when they lost to Buffalo.
Playoff Appearances
The Steelers are making their third consecutive playoff appearance and 7th in Mike Tomlin’s 10-year tenure as head coach. The Chiefs are making their third playoff appearance in the last four seasons under Andy Reid and also lost in the Divisional Round last year. Prior to their Wild Card victory over Houston last year, the Chiefs had not won a playoff game since the 1993 season when Joe Montana led them past the Steelers and Oilers before losing to the Bills in the AFC Championship. Interestingly, the Chiefs have continued their organizational tradition of acquiring quarterbacks off the free agent market. The last quarterback drafted by the Chiefs to win a game (any game, not a playoff game) was Todd Blackledge who was drafted in 1983 and last won a game for the Chiefs in 1987.
Recent Meetings
This will be the sixth meeting between the Steelers and Chiefs since the 2011 season and a rematch of the Week 4 game from this season. The Steelers are 4-1 in the previous 5 meetings with their only loss coming last season when Landry Jones quarterbacked the Steelers in Kansas City. Only two of those five prior games were played in Kansas City with the Steelers losing the Landry game and beating the Chiefs in a game that Tyler Palko started for Kansas City in 2011. With the time change to primetime because of weather conditions, this will be the fourth out of six games between the teams that will take place in the 8:30 time slot and the Steelers are 3-0 in those games.
20 Points
The 20-point mark has been the magic number for both teams this season. The Steelers are 12-1 in games where they score at least 20 points with their lone loss coming to the Dallas Cowboys. Similarly, the Chiefs are 11-0 in games where they scored at least 20 points. The Steelers were 0-4 when their offense failed to put 20 on the board while the Chiefs were 1-4 with their lone win coming in a 19-14 victory over the Jaguars.
Turnovers
The Chiefs led the league in takeaways with 33 on the season. Impressively, they led in both interceptions (with 18) and fumble recoveries (with 15). The Chiefs were 10-1 on the season when they won or tied the turnover battle with their only loss coming in a 19-17 game against Tampa Bay. Kansas City’s defense has produced at least one takeaway in all but 3 games this season (one of which was against the Steelers). On the flip side their offense was turnover-prone early in the season, committing 7 in the first 4 weeks, but tightened up their ball security after the Week 5 bye. In 7 games from their bye week through the end of November, the Chiefs offense committed just 3 turnovers. In December, they slipped back into old habits and turned the ball over at least once in each of their last 5 games.
The Steelers are 9-3 when they win or tie the turnover battle and have generated at least one takeaway in 11 straight games. The Steelers offense has been a bit looser with the ball since the calendar turned to December and have committed a turnover in 5 of the last 6 games. In four of those games the Steelers committed multiple turnovers. The good news is the Steelers have been very good at holding on to the ball once it is in their hands – they have only lost 3 fumbles on the season, the best in the league.
A vast majority of Kansas City’s turnovers have been forced by their secondary. Cornerback Marcus Peters finished second in the league with 6 interceptions this season and safety Eric Berry had 4 picks. In total, the Chiefs defensive backs accounted for 16 of their 18 interceptions and 8 of their 15 forced fumbles. From a turnover production standpoint, the Steelers have been the opposite. The Steelers turnover production has come from their linebackers. The linebackers actually have more interceptions this season (7) than the defensive backs (6). On top of that, the linebackers have forced 11 fumbles on the season. On the season, 60% of the Steelers takeaways have been generated by their linebacking corps. This held true in the Wild Card game against Miami as Ryan Shazier had an interception and James Harrison and Mike Mitchell forced fumbles.
Sacks
The Chiefs will have the two best pass rushers in this game. Justin Houston missed a number of games this season with injury but did record 4 sacks and should be healthy for this game. He was replaced in the lineup by former first round pick Dee Ford who broke out with a 10-sack season. The Steelers have not had a 10-sack player since 2010. Even though the Chiefs had an individual with more sacks than the Steelers top two sackers combined, the Steelers had more sacks as a team than the Chiefs did this season. The Chiefs were almost singularly reliant on their edge rushers (Ford, Houston and Tamba Hali) while the Steelers got pressure from all over. The Steelers defensive line accounted for 11 sacks, outside linebackers for 16.5 sacks, inside linebackers for 8 sacks, and secondary for 2.5 sacks.
Bend But Don’t Break
While the Chiefs defense has been very good at taking the ball away, they have not been as good at slowing teams down. Based on yardage, the Chiefs have the 26th-ranked rushing defense and the 24th-ranked total defense. However, they have the 7th best scoring defense so while they give up a lot of yardage, they have been stingy about surrendering points. Kansas City has held 10 of their opponents under 20 points this season and the Steelers were the only team to score more than 28 against them.
Similarly, the Steelers defensive philosophy for much of the season has been focused on a “bend but don’t break” attitude. Through the first 9 games, the Steelers allowed over 350 yards of total offense 7 times. The Steelers gave up 21+ in 5 of those 9 games and lost all 5 of them. But in the second half of the season during their winning streak, the defense showed significant improvement. Only the Ravens and Browns broke the 350 yards and 21 points barrier. On the season, the Steelers finished 12th in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. With both teams rating in the top 10 in scoring defense (and having held 10 opponents under 21 points this season), points will be at a premium in this game though both teams should be able to move the ball on offense. As always, the key to the game will be getting the ball into the end zone and scoring touchdowns instead of settling for field goals.
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