The trajectory of the Steelers and Dolphins have been very different this season. When the two teams met on an 85-degree day in October, the Steelers were 4-1 and the Dolphins just 1-4. The Steelers were seen as Super Bowl contenders while the Dolphins were ranked as the worst team in the league by numerous Power Rankings. Then the Dolphins physically dominated the Steelers with Jay Ajayi rushing for 204 yards. The Steelers would then lose their next 3 games (thanks in part to a Ben Roethlisberger knee injury suffered in Miami) and fall to 4-5. Meanwhile, their victory over the Steelers catapulted the Dolphins onto a 6-game winning streak and they would sit at 7-4 by the end of November. As we all know, the Steelers turned their season around with a win over the hapless Browns, starting a run of 7 straight wins that would see them end the season 11-5. The Dolphins meanwhile went 3-2 down the stretch, finishing with a 10-6 mark.
Playoff Appearances
The Steelers are making their third consecutive playoff appearance and 7th in Mike Tomlin’s 10-year tenure as head coach. The Dolphins last made the playoffs in 2008 (which was also the most recent season they had a winning record). This is just Miami’s second playoff appearance since the NFL went to a 32-team 4-division format in 2002. Despite the fact that the Steelers only have three players on their roster with 2 Super Bowl Rings and only 5 with at least one Ring, the Dolphins are even shorter on postseason experience.
Recent Meetings
This will be the third playoff meeting between the Steelers and the Dolphins. The first came in 1972 with the Dolphins entering the AFC Championship Game undefeated and the Steelers coming off a victory over the Raiders that culminated with the Immaculate Reception. The Dolphins won 21-17 and would go on to defeat the Redskins in the Super Bowl. The teams met again at Three Rivers Stadium in the 1979 Divisional Round with the Steelers scoring 20 first quarter points en route to a 34-14 victory. The 1979 season culminated with Pittsburgh’s fourth Lombardi Trophy in a Super Bowl victory over the Rams. The third and final playoff meeting came in the 1984 AFC Championship with Dan Marino throwing for 421 yards and 4 TDs to defeat the Steelers and send the Dolphins to the Super Bowl.
The Steelers have faced the Dolphins 7 times in the Ben Roethlisberger era. Pittsburgh won the first five meetings but have lost the last two. In each of the last two games, the Dolphins have run all over the Steelers. In 2013 in a game in Pittsburgh in the snow, the plodding Daniel Thomas ran for 105 yards, including a 55-yarder that broke the Steelers backs in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins as a team ran for 181 yards that day in a game where the Steelers needed a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The defensive tackling was atrocious and many still have nightmares of Charles Clay breaking a Troy Polamalu and Cortez Allen tackle en route to the go-ahead score. This season, the Steelers and Dolphins met on an 85-degree day in Miami and Jay Ajayi ran for 204 yards, including a 62-yarder to ice the game with under a minute to go. If the Steelers are to reverse the course of the last two games, the defense has to tackle better and stop the run.
Season Trends
As detailed in the outset, the Steelers and Dolphins have been near opposites this season. The most telling statistic is their records against teams with winning records. The first time they met, a lot was made in the media about Mike Tomlin’s performances on the road against bad teams. But those statistics include losses to the Chiefs last year and Dolphins this year, both of whom made the playoffs but happened to have losing records when they played the Steelers early in the year. This season, the Steelers were 3-3 against teams with winning records (and 2-1 against .500 teams). Only 1 of the Steelers 5 losses came to a team that finished the season with a losing record. On the other side, the Dolphins were certainly the beneficiaries of an easy schedule. They were just 1-4 against teams with winning records and had an additional loss to the Ravens who finished at .500. This means that 9 of the 10 Dolphins victories came against teams with losing records with their only victory over a winning team coming against Pittsburgh.
20 Points
The 20 point mark has been the magic number for the Steelers this season. They are 11-1 when scoring at least 20 points with the only loss coming to the Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers are also 0-4 when scoring below 20 points as they did in the first meeting with the Dolphins. The only home game this season in which the Steelers did not break the 20-point mark was the Patriots game which was started by Landry Jones.
Turnovers and Pressure
On the season, the Steelers and Dolphins both rank in the middle of the pack in terms of turnovers and pressure. On offense, the Steelers rank 11th in the league in turnovers having given the ball up just 18 times on the season. The Dolphins rank 17th in the league with 23 giveaways. On defense, the Dolphins rank 12th in the league with 25 turnovers and the Steelers rank 15th with 23 takeaways. Both teams rank in the top 10 in the league in protecting the quarterback. The Dolphins have allowed 30 sacks on the season (the 10th fewest) and the Steelers have allowed just 21 (the 2nd fewest). The largest disparity in rankings comes in sacks but the raw number difference is relatively small. The Steelers defense ranks 9th in the league with 38 sacks while the Dolphins are just 5 sacks behind but rank 19th.
The Dolphins offense has turned the ball over at least once in their last five games and in 7 of their last 8. Since taking over as a starter, Matt Moore has thrown an interception in each of the last three weeks. Moore does have some elusiveness in the pocket and has only been sacked once. Prior to their bye week in Week 8, the Steelers turned the ball over at least once in 6 of their 7 games. Since the bye, the Steelers have turned the ball over in just 5 of 9 games (but have at least one giveaway in 4 of their last 5). The Steelers defense has made the biggest strides and have generated at least one takeaway in 10 straight outings. The Dolphins are 7-1 in games where they win or tie the turnover battle while the Steelers are 8-3 when they win or tie the turnover battle. One note is that the Steelers have been the best team in the league at getting to the quarterback over the second half of the season. After 9 games the Steelers were tied for last in the league with just 13 sacks but tallied 25 over their final 7 outings to finish in the top 10 despite not having an individual player with more than 5 sacks.
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