Above are the 2015-16 shot charts for the Wolves and Golden State Warriors. As you can see the Warriors are better than the Wolves in every area behind the arc this year. Not only are they more efficient behind the arc, but they’ve taken almost twice as many 3 pointers as the Wolves have. The Warriors are shooting 42.5% from behind the arc currently. That means that every 3 pointer that the Warriors shoot is basically worth 1.275 points. The Wolves are shooting about 33% from behind the arc, and every 3 pointer the Wolves take is worth about 0.99 points. That is a difference of 0.28 points in the value of each 3 point shot taken between these teams. The Warriors are the gold standard for 3 pointers currently, and comparing any team to them is unfair, but the discrepancy in volume between these teams is troubling. Nobody shoots as well from behind the arc as the Warriors, but in terms of attempts the rest of the league is closing in on the Warriors. Over half of the league has taken 1000+ 3 pointers this season and the Wolves won’t hit that total until March.
The Wolves are last in the league in 3 pointers made this season, a distinction they held last year as well. They are 28th in 3 point percentage also. Why are the Wolves one of the worst, and most reluctant 3 point shooting teams in the league over the past two years? One reason has been coaching philosophy. Flip wasn’t a big proponent of the 3 pointer, and neither is Sam Mitchell. Let’s ignore that for now though, there are other issues that need to be addressed.
First off, and most importantly, the Wolves just don’t have great shooters. The best shooter on the roster currently is Kevin Martin, and there is a decent chance he isn’t on the team a month from now. As far as players that the Wolves might be interested in keeping for the long term it gets a little gloomier. Rubio and Wiggins are both shooting below league average (35%) from beyond the arc this year and for their careers. That is a problem because those two carry the bulk of the ball handling duties for the Wolves. Neither of them is a great shooter, and neither is a great paint scorer. That is not a recipe for good NBA offense. Ideally one of them would be able to play off ball and make the defense guard them from 20+ feet. Rubio could add a lot of value if he develops a reliable 3 point shot. Recently there have been some positive signs from Rubio shooting 3’s. He is shooting 12/30 (40%) from behind the arc in January. On the season he is 9/20 from the corners. If he can be reliable from the corners the Wolves offense looks a lot better.
Towns has the potential to be a very good shooter, especially at the center position. He hasn’t been taking a ton from beyond the arc this year, but has shot fairly well when he has. He’s shooting 38.9% on almost one 3 point attempt per game. In the long run Towns can make the Wolves a very dangerous shooting team. Most teams in the league have stretch power forwards, but there aren’t many stretch centers. Demarcus Cousins has started shooting 3 pointers, but he isn’t very efficient yet. Kristaps Porzingis will play center in the future, but is mostly a power forward at the moment due to his frame. Anthony Davis gets minutes at center, but again, mainly a power forward. Nobody projects to be able to combine Towns’ post game and size with efficient shooting from deep.
The three most important bench players of the future are Gorgui, Shabazz and Lavine. Lavine leads the Wolves in 3 point attempts per game (2.9) and is shooting 32.5% for the year, similar to what he shot last year. Lavine is a streaky shooter and his shot selection is poor at times. He is the best off the dribble shooter on this team though, which brings an extra dimension to the offense. Gorgui doesn’t shoot 3 pointers at all. He has developed a good mid-range game though. His value won’t come as a shooter and he doesn’t really need to focus on stretching his range.
Shabazz is the guy to watch on this team. He can be an important cog in the Wolves offense going forward. Shabazz has impressed the last month or so and deserves an expanded role, starting or playing big minutes with the starters. In a small sample size he has shot very well from the corners (48.7%). The corner 3 is a unique floor spacing tool that good offensive teams of recent years have utilized to their advantage. Playing with the starting unit ‘Bazz can spot up in the corner and catch kick-outs for that shot. He may never be a great shooter from the rest of the arc, but if he can force the defense to guard him in the corner that creates extra space for Towns, Wiggins, and Rubio to operate.
Bjelica was brought in to be a playmaking/stretch power forward. He is shooting 37.5% from deep this year. He has had to adjust to the longer NBA 3 pointer, so the early returns are pretty good. If he can increase his attempts and keep that efficiency he could be very valuable for the Wolves.
There is a decent shooting offense in this group, but that is probably where they top out, decent. Rubio and Shabazz in the corners. KAT with pick and pops. Bjelica and Lavine fill it up on the wings. Andrew Wiggins is a wild card here, his shot may never fully develop, but if it does he may be a scary offensive player. Tyus Jones can bring shooting from the point guard position if Rubio struggles. They need to develop chemistry together and continue to work on their shots, but this team is young. Everyone should be viewed as a work in progress.
Another reason for the lack of 3 point shooting on this team is the lack of good passers. The 3 point shot is a shot often preceded by a pass, 84% of 3 point shots this year have been assisted. The Wolves aren’t a great passing team. They only have a couple above average passers. Rubio is a skilled and willing passer. Towns is a good passer for a big man. Lavine can be a good passer at times, but plays in bench units and often has to be the main scoring threat in those situations. Beyond that they don’t have players that really look to move the ball and make the extra pass. Wiggins has a ways to go as a passer, same with Shabazz. Pek and Gorgui aren’t going to move the ball much. Bjelica hasn’t shown much in terms of creating for others yet.
Teams like the Hawks and Spurs pass their way to open 3 point looks. The key to their offense is having capable passers at every position. They regularly will run their offensive set, kick the ball out to someone in the corner, and then whip the ball around the arc until someone has an open look. Check out this passing sequence from the Warriors.
The Wolves don’t often get these looks because they don’t have 3+ players spotted up behind the arc, but also because they don’t have the players that look to make those passes.
The final issue that the Wolves face is lineup composition. The Wolves spend most of the game playing with two traditional big men. Bjelica is playing about 18 minutes per game, and he is the only real stretch power forward on this team. That means that the other 30 minutes of the games the Wolves have two of the traditional big men on the court: Towns, KG, Pek and Gorgui. Small ball goes hand in hand with 3 point shooting. They brought in Adreian Payne to potentially be the stretch power forward but he hasn’t panned out. Bjelica may just top out as a quality bench player.
The Wolves have some moves to make. They will likely make a deal at the trade deadline. They’re looking at another top 5 pick in the draft. Either Henry Ellenson or Dragan Bender could be a stretch power forward to pair with Towns, and the Wolves have a decent shot to land one of them. In free agency they could take a flyer on someone like Evan Fournier or Terrence Jones and hope they can shine in a bigger role with a new team. The most important move that all Wolves fans need to watch will be the coaching decision. Coaching has become so important in the NBA. Offensive and defensive schemes have become more sophisticated. The Wolves have been slow in adapting to the modern NBA. They need to bring someone in who will shake things up.
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