Lehigh training camp is amazingly still within the realm of possibility… perhaps only by the grace of many years of accumulated credibility of the Eagles organization for paying its obligations and supporting the economy of the northeastern Pennsylvania community—which today holds out desperate hope for an Eagles camp in 2011…
I don’t see a CBA deal getting officially done until later this week… which means the folks up in Lehigh and Bethlehem may in fact be left high and dry for this preseason…
Too bad. And kind of sad…seeing as the economic stimulus of a regular Eagles TC would make a huge economic difference in the current recessionary (read depression) economic climate of the region…
The hope that things may improve quickly enough to save Lehigh’s “August economy” is broadcast by the NFL Network tonight….
The economics behind a new collective bargaining agreement – the biggest chunk of the work – is done, says the NFL Network’s Albert Breer.
“The parties closed in on an agreement on the rookie compensation system Thursday (July 14), the single biggest benchmark of progress over the last two weeks of talks,” Breer writes.
“A lot of details remain, though it’s hard to envision those left standing in the way of a labor deal.”
NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora is being told that the two sides will reconvene face-to-face with U.S. Magistrate Judge Arthur Boylan in Minnesota on Tuesday (July 19).
Issues remaining include retirees benefits, player safety, an appeals process for player discipline, worker’s compensation and injury guarantees in contracts.
Okay, it’s sounding pretty good… but no matter how you slice it, this delay in regular activities due to the prolonged lockout is going to have some effect on early-season play by all teams… in big part due to loss of TC time at traditional training camp sites… The Jets have just announced their cancellation of traditional TC venue… can Lehigh’s demise be far behind?
I hope not. But I am extremely dubious of a new CBA agreement’s gravitas late next week being enough to convince Joe Banner that he should pony up $1 million to move the 2011 Eagles’ preseason drills to Bethlehem and back. In fact, the deposits on the Lehigh U. facilities may have already been forfeited…
Meanwhile, we still entertain personnel issues…
Take LeSean McCoy…
Consider that Lesean McCoy is on the cutting edge of legitimate stardom as a feature back in the NFL… How many carries and touches do you want to expose this guy to in a season where training camp may be abbreviated at best?
There is a tendency in a season following a work stoppage or period of labor unrest to “catch up to speed” as quickly as possible…and often this means overloading your proven performers with extra responsibility.
In a shortened training camp environment, why risk the unknown—or even bother with involving unproven rookies or unschooled free agents in the limited number of reps available?
The tendency is always to go with your #1 guy on the Depth Chart… and to use every minute of limited prime-time available in an abbreviated camp upon your first string veterans…
And here’s the catch:
There’s an old superstition (mainly based on fact) in the NFL called “The Curse of 370″…
This is the theory that a running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year…(unless he is named Eric Dickerson). Occasionally, the loss of effectiveness or injury takes place two years later (see: LaDainian Tomlinson, 2004). 370 carries is not a hard and fast rule, but a useful guideline to running back overuse… Introduced in Pro Football Forecast 2004, the 370-carry theory was expanded in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 to include any season with 390 carries in the regular season and postseason combined… Only carries count, not receptions. Read more here.
Is LeSean McCoy suddenly in danger of the repercussions of “The Curse of 370”— due to the expected limitations of training camp reps in 2011 for the guys who would normally be competing for his backup role in a non-lockout year?
We know those extra reps in TC will be in short supply this year, even if the Birds do get to somehow resurrect an abbreviated Lehigh University training camp.
It’s a weird scenario. You want your feature back to be ready…but not “too ready”… as in over-worked and fatigued from a “Cliff’s Notes” version of a shortened training camp…
And frankly, since I take the “Curse of 370” seriously, I also include receptions along with carries to account for the total of body-shots a running back is going to take over the course of a full season— and which all ultimately add up to the premature destruction of a great career.
McCoy can only be expected to take so many shots in a given season. He’s human, not a machine, and can only have a limited number of hits to absorb before he breaks down.
This all boils down to about 23 touches per game for McCoy over a 16-game regular season… which is basically what the current Eagles offensive design expects of him.
With a truncated training camp, and no premium veteran back on the roster to give McCoy a breather in a close game (assuming Harrison leaves for free agency), it is not hard to imagine the “Rule of 370” (counting receptions with carries) consuming and destroying McCoy.
I’m sure the Eagles management and coaching staff is aware of this variable. I’m sure they will do whatever is necessary to keep McCoy fresh as possible and to provide a reasonable backup option so that Shady can get as much rest as possible during the preseason and the regular season practice weeks.
I’m just a little worried there will not be enough time available in a lockout-shortened training camp to develop “go-to” confidence in any backup alternative to your feature back…which could mean Shady is in for a long and grueling—and perhaps career-shortening—campaign in 2011.
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